tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81571277067542819652024-03-28T15:36:41.319+11:00The demog blogTelling it like it is - one place at a timeSimone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-84129765262590269962023-05-01T15:16:00.003+10:002023-05-15T21:46:46.924+10:00Regional population trends in Victoria<p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The release of regional population estimates for 2022 has been highly anticipated. This is because it's the first post-2021 Census release of population data. It covers a 12 month period when the Australian border was reopened to overseas migration after COVID related lockdowns. The state of Victoria was hit hard by COVID, with significant shifts in migration patterns marking an end to a decade or more of strong growth. What are the key demographic trends in 2021-22? Read on to find out.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Victoria's population in 2022</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">At June 2022, the population of Victoria was 6.62 million. This was an increase of 71,820 over the previous year, representing a growth rate of 1.1%. This was slightly below the national average of 1.2%, but it was a strong contrast to 2020-21 when the population declined by -0.9%. Also noteworthy is that Victoria has regained the population that was lost during the height of the pandemic. The June 2022 figure of 6.62 million exceeds the previous peak of 6.61 million recorded in March 2020.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Population trends by LGA</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The map below shows the rate of population change in each LGA across the state in 2021-22. Despite the disruption created by the COVID-19 pandemic, some population trends remained largely unchanged. For instance, stronger population growth on Melbourne's metropolitan fringe has continued - albeit at lower levels. Melton recorded a growth rate of 6.4%, and this was the highest not just in Victoria, but in Australia (shared with Camden in NSW). </span><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;">Wyndham (4.2%) and the City of Melbourne (4.0%) also recorded strong growth. Melton and Wyndham have been growing strongly for many years, as there is a significant amount of residential land under development. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHhdouPASyszhYgoN4VdA0hsX9kQhgBHMUDDfDdwVxWuZOShkm7PzLPDpZ5B1fxuW8sEzsmBpDf0cuUxpf1NG99jRJNZ2JNAiuVZvZo_rPWfDlK85biSRpmT8EfPHcbdu5XPCFjTN-UiuZiJ1yr4n0QiavQt8CoMS_STztkiyDCS2bzQ0ilReSHSm/s1255/vic%20erp%20population%20change%20by%20lga%202021-22.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="1255" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHhdouPASyszhYgoN4VdA0hsX9kQhgBHMUDDfDdwVxWuZOShkm7PzLPDpZ5B1fxuW8sEzsmBpDf0cuUxpf1NG99jRJNZ2JNAiuVZvZo_rPWfDlK85biSRpmT8EfPHcbdu5XPCFjTN-UiuZiJ1yr4n0QiavQt8CoMS_STztkiyDCS2bzQ0ilReSHSm/w640-h398/vic%20erp%20population%20change%20by%20lga%202021-22.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">In contrast, the City of Melbourne rebounded from the sharp 10% decline recorded in 2020-21, and the 4.0% growth rate resulted in a population of 159,810. This is still a long way short of the peak population of 170,810 recorded in 2020. The return of international students to the City is a key driver of this growth. It was replicated to a lesser degree in Monash, where the university of the same name is located. The LGA recorded a modest growth rate of 0.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of almost 4% the previous year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">There were still a number of LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne that recorded population decline in 2021-22. This was headed by Brimbank, which recorded a decline of -1.8%, or approximately 3,500 people. This was due to a strong net outflow of people to other parts of Australia. In general however, the LGAs that continued to record population decline did so at lower levels compared to 2020-21. More recent population data suggests that net <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-29/australian-migrant-population-growth-hits-all-time-record-high/102281798">overseas migration will top 400,000 in 2022-23</a>, and this will continue to drive population growth across Melbourne. As a result it's likely that some of these LGAs will once again record an increase in population.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">In regional Victoria the strongest growth rates were recorded in the peri-urban region beyond metropolitan Melbourne, as well as the larger regional centres. Mitchell Shire, located to the north of Melbourne, recorded a growth rate of 3.8%. Its population now exceeds 50,000 people. Further development of residential land in Beveridge, Wallan and other towns means that the strong growth will continue will into the future. Other regional LGAs to record strong growth include Baw Baw (2.8%), Bass Coast (2.7%) and Surf Coast (2.6%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Another pre-COVID trend that remains largely unchanged is the continued population decline in more remote and rural LGAs. The stronger population growth recorded across regional Victoria during lockdowns was spatially uneven. Small rural LGAs in western Victoria, such as Yarriambiack (-1.2%), West Wimmera and Hindmarsh (both -1.0%), have been steadily declining in population for some time. The population of Yarriambiack has declined by 20% since 2002, and now stands at just 6,435. The fate of towns such as Rupanyup (pictured below) in light of challenging demographic trends and economic circumstances is uncertain.</span></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihJMr7mM55HI-4j-8zv9KCrZRBqFGLPGUrJgLoDvR0oNLYfaBVhjgjuqEYtPirfwyMa3CvKe9qPdNifuw7Aro9qdKKdC1kGbfc-JUQ24Dr9hPHRBLGqEBSWTZ9qeBvOeZKOZ1wc4-TadRsy7JXl9cThTKqofQWh7se2zm-ycpu2kuP-YYL_4DqX_VK/s950/rupanyup.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="950" height="339" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihJMr7mM55HI-4j-8zv9KCrZRBqFGLPGUrJgLoDvR0oNLYfaBVhjgjuqEYtPirfwyMa3CvKe9qPdNifuw7Aro9qdKKdC1kGbfc-JUQ24Dr9hPHRBLGqEBSWTZ9qeBvOeZKOZ1wc4-TadRsy7JXl9cThTKqofQWh7se2zm-ycpu2kuP-YYL_4DqX_VK/w640-h339/rupanyup.jpg" title="The main street of Rupanyup, located in Yarriambiack Shire. These abandoned shopfronts are interesting to photograph, but from a demographic perspective they highlight the decline that has been occurring for many years." width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;"><i>The main street of Rupanyup, located in Yarriambiack Shire. Although these shopfronts are interesting to photograph, they are symbolic of the population decline occurring in small country towns across western Victoria. Population gain in regional Victoria has bypassed these areas.<br /><br /></i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Concluding comments </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Although the COVID-19 related population decline in Victoria has turned around, the volume and percentage growth are still lower than the figures recorded throughout the 2010s. The key reason for this is that Victoria is still losing population to other parts of Australia, and the level of net overseas migration in 2021-22 only partially compensated for this. The level of natural increase has also declined, primarily due to more deaths. However <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/sep-2022">more recent population data</a> suggests that net interstate migration gain is declining. If net overseas migration does approach the 400,000 mark, the combination of these trends will impact population growth across Melbourne in particular. </span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-54613391455422149632023-03-27T17:36:00.004+11:002023-03-28T21:13:42.686+11:00Western Australia has the largest homes in the country<p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;">Australia's urban areas are characterised by low density, sprawling suburbs with some of the largest homes in the world. In 2019-20, the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2020/11/commsec-home-size-trends-report.html">average area of new houses</a> was around 236 square metres. Although the Census does not capture data on floor area, a useful indicator of dwelling size is the number of bedrooms. Where are the largest dwellings in Australia? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><b>Which state has the largest dwellings?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;">The 2021 Census counted almost 11 million dwellings across the country. About 10% of these were unoccupied, and as a result little is known about their characteristics. There is a wealth of data collected from dwellings that were occupied on Census night. In terms of the number of bedrooms, the most common category was three bedrooms, comprising 37% of the total. This was followed by four bedroom dwellings (27%), and two bedroom dwellings (18%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Dwelling sizes have grown progressively larger over the decades. In 1971, about one in two dwellings in Australia had three dwellings, and just 11% had four bedrooms. The irony is that in the last 50 years, household types have become smaller, yet our homes have more bedrooms than ever before. It's the great planning conundrum, and does little to alleviate issues around housing affordability, environmental sustainability and urban sprawl.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-sU-Hx6sdeltKFG-QWSYwzakI8_gjJDf4UFFXjl7pC0LKQ601uLoEwUlJ_xfj0f256B0R64M3Um3QmvXIuwJQ8r_SAM2gkmcovxngWzgae7WbFqm5tQy1bNvUMmqtKRVozdqgr0H9NhVlxdgGbxK59TVfpjxI5VQILzeFlri-FAumep8-zTtPvjcA/s790/bedrooms%20by%20state%202021.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="790" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-sU-Hx6sdeltKFG-QWSYwzakI8_gjJDf4UFFXjl7pC0LKQ601uLoEwUlJ_xfj0f256B0R64M3Um3QmvXIuwJQ8r_SAM2gkmcovxngWzgae7WbFqm5tQy1bNvUMmqtKRVozdqgr0H9NhVlxdgGbxK59TVfpjxI5VQILzeFlri-FAumep8-zTtPvjcA/w640-h350/bedrooms%20by%20state%202021.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;">There is significant variation by state and territory. Western Australia (WA) is the only state where four bedroom dwellings are the most common type. They comprise 36.2% of occupied private dwellings, compared to three bedroom dwellings (35.5%). When dwellings of four or more bedrooms are considered, 42.2% of occupied private dwellings fall into this category. This far exceeds Queensland (36.6%) and the ACT (34.6%) and suggests that WA has the biggest homes in Australia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><b>Larger dwellings in Western Australia</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Between 2011 and 2021, the number of dwellings with four or more bedrooms (hereafter called "larger dwellings") in WA grew by almost 30%. This exceeded the rate of growth for all dwellings (20%), and this has manifested itself in rapidly growing outer suburban areas where larger dwellings are effectively the new standard. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;">The map below shows the proportion of larger dwellings in each LGA in WA. The areas with the highest proportion of larger dwellings were located on the urban fringe of the Perth metropolitan area. There was also a smaller cluster around Bunbury in the South West. The LGA with the highest proportion of larger dwellings was Serpentine-Jarrahdale, where 68.8% of dwellings have four or more bedrooms. This is a rapidly growing LGA on the southern outskirts of Perth with a number of new housing estates. Capel (located between Bunbury and Busselton), and Joondalup (in Perth's northern outskirts) were the other LGAs were more than 60% of the dwelling stock had four or more bedrooms.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw0WCH-VS4JQgG7iZWjn3QvJFXU_aHB-XtQQ6sG6EpNi0lEezObLve_y6xTJWa7gyhdbkXPaSmlVys5q4n-u4zNKJq2PvFWePFk2izCUH36Ibj02I2AHCz5pJKtte3gN-Vh7QUganndj8w-z675FDSkS0dweOO2cRFR8919CXZ_B6M_UteW9VH1vrY/s756/larger%20dwellings%20by%20lga%20wa%202021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="756" data-original-width="756" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw0WCH-VS4JQgG7iZWjn3QvJFXU_aHB-XtQQ6sG6EpNi0lEezObLve_y6xTJWa7gyhdbkXPaSmlVys5q4n-u4zNKJq2PvFWePFk2izCUH36Ibj02I2AHCz5pJKtte3gN-Vh7QUganndj8w-z675FDSkS0dweOO2cRFR8919CXZ_B6M_UteW9VH1vrY/w640-h640/larger%20dwellings%20by%20lga%20wa%202021.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro";"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">When data on average floor size of new homes is considered, it's not surprising that LGAs on the urban fringe recorded the largest proportions of larger dwellings. In Serpentine-Jarrahdale, <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/serpentine-jarrahdale/bedrooms">about 80% of new dwellings</a> added to the stock between 2016 and 2021 had four or more bedrooms. Big houses on separate blocks are the norm here, with virtually all (98%) of dwellings classified as separate houses. This pattern of building reinforces urban sprawl and does little to promote dwelling diversity to cater for all types of households.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">At the other end of the spectrum, inner areas of Perth, as well as much of remote inland and northern parts of WA, had a much lower proportion of larger dwellings. Just 2.3% of dwellings in the City of Perth had four or more dwellings. The LGAs of Vincent, Subiaco, Victoria Park and Fremantle also recorded less than 20% of dwellings with four or more bedrooms. This is more a function of the dwelling types in these areas, particularly high rise apartments, dual occupancies and villas/townhouses. Like many Australian cities, high rise apartments have become a feature of the CBD and surrounding suburbs. These dwellings are smaller in size, mainly with one or two bedrooms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The Census of Population and Housing collects data on the number of bedrooms in private dwellings. In the absence of other data, this provides an indication of dwelling size. Western Australia has the largest dwellings in the country on this measure, with around 42% having four or more bedrooms. It's the only state/territory where there four bedroom dwellings are the most common. LGAs on Perth's outskirts, as well as a cluster in the South West, have the highest proportions of larger dwellings. These areas are growing rapidly, and this is consistent with data showing that Australia has the largest new dwellings in the world. However, it raises questions on how this influences housing affordability, housing diversity and urban sprawl.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;"><br /></span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-55897372346064102292023-02-20T17:02:00.002+11:002023-02-20T17:02:45.484+11:00How CALD communities have changed since 1971<p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Not many people know that the ABS has published a large amount of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/historical">historical Census data</a> on their website. If you want to see how the Australian population, and the dwellings they live in, has changed over the years, then this data is a real treasure trove. This blog looks at countries of birth in Australia, comparing 1971 and 2021 Census data.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Not all Census collections are the same</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">CALD communities can be measured in a number of ways, and I've blogged about this on many occasions. I generally recommend looking at birthplace, language and ancestry to get a full picture. Religion data can also be useful. But this isn't always possible, because the data collected in each Census varies over time. When I started the research for this blog, I was surprised to learn that language data was not collected in the 1971 Census. A <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/guide-census-data/census-dictionary/2021/variables-topic/cultural-diversity/language-used-home-lanp">question on language spoken</a> was asked in the 1933 Census, but it did not appear again until 1976. What a missed opportunity to track changes in some of our CALD communities, especially those where birthplace is not a good indicator of cultural background.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The ABS has previously published a fantastic resource called <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/2903.0Main%20Features152011">How Australia takes a Census</a>. This included a list of all the topics, and the years they were included in the Census collection. Basic demographic characteristics, such as age, sex and marital status, have been collected in each Census since 1911. Others, such as the material of outer walls, are no longer asked.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Even if the topic has been included in each Census, the questions may change. As a user, it's important to understand the context in which the question was asked so that the data is interpreted correctly. In addition, the categories used for coding may change over time. This is very apparent in the birthplace data. Changes in the geopolitical landscape mean that some countries that existed in 1971 no longer exist today eg Yugoslavia. The reverse is also true eg Serbia, Croatia etc. Others have changed name eg Ceylon is now Sri Lanka.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Main countries of birth, 1971 and 2021</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">In 1971, approximately 20% of the Australian population was born overseas. By 2021, this had increased to 27.6%. There were almost 250 countries represented in the 2021 Census data. Unfortunately it's difficult to get an estimate for 1971 due to the way in which the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/2105.01971?OpenDocument">data is published</a>. No fancy Tablebuilder in 1971 to sort these things out!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The table below shows the top ten countries of birth (aside from Australia) in 1971 and 2021. England was by far the most common country of birth in both years. This of course reflects sustained migration, as well as social and economic ties, over the last 200 plus years. However there have been significant changes to Australia's overseas migration program in the last 50 years. In addition, globalisation has resulted in increasing volumes of migration overall, due to people seeking employment and education opportunities beyond their country of birth. This has had major impacts on which countries now seek residence in Australia. Only three countries on the 1971 list are still in the top 10 in 2021 - aside from England these are Italy and New Zealand.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Countries such as India and China do not appear on the top 10 list in 1971, but are ranked second and third respectively in 2021. Conversely, the number of people born in Italy and Greece has declined by more than 40% since 1971. <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2022/03/measuring-cald-communities-with-census.html">This blog explains how these communities are ageing</a>, and shows how language and ancestry data provides alternative ways of measuring the size of CALD communities.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwe7MfPJFbh7V25r7et5-bAKugjDDGECmPu_ig2ATNlix2Lu2IU6cMqampAhSFoMM9diuIqqHUhL3PsA3YsX26a4KPzd8W6c3KAQzyD1mK6kMJ2LGyvvsxBaviNBrXivXIiqjpdJFds9BzwYALGacQF4sAwheC6L0HDe2wAhS89-WsEJrAAjLBnOHu/s800/cob%20australia%201971%20and%202021%20table.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="800" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwe7MfPJFbh7V25r7et5-bAKugjDDGECmPu_ig2ATNlix2Lu2IU6cMqampAhSFoMM9diuIqqHUhL3PsA3YsX26a4KPzd8W6c3KAQzyD1mK6kMJ2LGyvvsxBaviNBrXivXIiqjpdJFds9BzwYALGacQF4sAwheC6L0HDe2wAhS89-WsEJrAAjLBnOHu/w640-h370/cob%20australia%201971%20and%202021%20table.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">As mentioned above, there were only three countries that appeared in the top ten list in both 1971 and 2021. The graph below visualises the changes in a slightly different way, looking at the size of all the countries that appeared in both lists. Some assumptions had to be made about the size of some communities due to geopolitical changes or a lack of data.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg42oDAnAN8WuBXOZDBUIFZYlitEzHY5k3upnxC18L6V_IY4UkBYReHoK5GFOvaPxoF5HdjMpq51NA79mTJYxyNgGank5F3sySosBUa8sxxHYXEypSEEYcvjEcYip8rzBTS9rtrhg8iS-dk3JjTNULiGL1oIL1sU5CTcKclE488EhJJDsxj71lw1w6F/s680/cob%20australia%201971%20and%202021%20chart.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="610" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg42oDAnAN8WuBXOZDBUIFZYlitEzHY5k3upnxC18L6V_IY4UkBYReHoK5GFOvaPxoF5HdjMpq51NA79mTJYxyNgGank5F3sySosBUa8sxxHYXEypSEEYcvjEcYip8rzBTS9rtrhg8iS-dk3JjTNULiGL1oIL1sU5CTcKclE488EhJJDsxj71lw1w6F/w574-h640/cob%20australia%201971%20and%202021%20chart.jpg" width="574" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: medium;">The rise of Asian migration is clear to see in this graph. Only India and China had modest sized communities in 1971. There was a wave of migration from India in the 1960s and early 1970s, and in 1971 the Indian born community numbered 29,211. The Chinese born community was smaller in size (17,601) due to restrictions on arrivals over many decades. Despite this, migration from China has a long history in Australia, dating back to the Gold Rush of the 1850s. Since 1971, the population of both communities has grown substantially.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Other Asian countries show a similar trend, but off a far smaller base. For instance, there were around 2,500 Philippine born people in 1971, but this has increased more than 100-fold to reach more than 293,000 in 2021. Vietnam was not even separately classified in 1971, such was the small size of the community. Instead, Vietnam was grouped together with Laos and Cambodia, resulting in a population of just 717 persons.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The reverse is true for many European countries. Aside from Italy and Greece, other examples include Malta, Netherlands and Scotland. The latter is a curious case - since 1971 the Scottish born population has declined by 25%. This has occurred despite the England born population increasing slightly over the 50 years. Further investigation reveals that the population born in Wales is 25% higher in 2021 compared to 1971, whereas those born in Northern Ireland is relatively steady. If these four countries are combined to create a total for the United Kingdom, then the population born there was 1.046 million in 1971, increasing by 5% to 1.098 million in 2021. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Historical data from the Census of Population and Housing shows how Australia has changed over the decades. The data shows that in 1971 and 2021, England was the main country of birth aside from Australia. In 1971, the main countries of birth were primarily European, but in 2021 they are most are Asian countries. This reflects changes in Australia's migration program, but also global forces influencing employment and education.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;"><br /></span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-67960406331581113802023-01-23T16:47:00.001+11:002023-01-23T16:47:17.878+11:00Migration trends in Queensland<p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Queensland was by far Australia's fastest growing state in 2022. This continues trends that have been in place for the last two years. Population growth has been driven primarily by increasing volumes of interstate migration. This blog describes recent population trends in Queensland, with a particular focus on interstate migration.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>What is Queensland's population?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">At June 2022, Queensland had a population of 5.32 million. This was an increase of 104,400 over the previous year, representing a growth rate of 2.0%. This growth far exceeded other states and territories, and was almost double the national average of 1.1%. It was the first time since 2008-09 that the volume of growth in Queensland exceeded 100,000 persons. Throughout 2020 and 2021, Queensland's population continued to grow despite the closure of the international border. However, growth was turbo charged with a rapid increase in the volume of interstate migration. This mitigated the impacts of the international border closure on population change. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">The chart below shows the components of population change in Queensland since 1982. The volatility of migration levels over time - both interstate and overseas - is clear to see. In the first half of the 2010s, net interstate migration gain in Queensland was at its lowest level in the last 40 years. In 2013-14, the net gain was just 6,290 people. Between 2014 and 2018, Victoria recorded higher net interstate migration gains than Queensland - an unusual situation for both states when historic trends are considered.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Since 2014 net interstate migration gains in Queensland have steadily increased. In 2020-21, the net gain was 31,180, and this almost doubled in 2021-22 when there was a net gain of 55,420. This is the highest net gain recorded in the last 40 years, and exceeds the previous peak of 49,160 recorded in 1992-93. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/qld-brisbane-olympic-infrastructure-2032-games/100311674">Brisbane will host the 2032 Olympics</a>, which will encourage population and economic growth through infrastructure and construction projects.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS4lg2bBpL6TwhoENXj7JvKphgtK90S8CtAsjuZxBH4u5Lj92mWp6iElUimCTlnZKxsAzxdy7BT8gz-uuMPy5w8XE9qbVPjqQxJcVZINX2hlLgo7IiqirXntEnEAd2a284vmeegiPt_wqFhpDvOHYm_T4ZTdh5lT3nCa3cPfVZ3f61dNm3V6O6ukVg/s640/qld%20components%20of%20popn%20change%201982-2022.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS4lg2bBpL6TwhoENXj7JvKphgtK90S8CtAsjuZxBH4u5Lj92mWp6iElUimCTlnZKxsAzxdy7BT8gz-uuMPy5w8XE9qbVPjqQxJcVZINX2hlLgo7IiqirXntEnEAd2a284vmeegiPt_wqFhpDvOHYm_T4ZTdh5lT3nCa3cPfVZ3f61dNm3V6O6ukVg/s16000/qld%20components%20of%20popn%20change%201982-2022.jpg" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Like other parts of Australia, net overseas migration (NOM) declined dramatically during 2020 and 2021. However the full reopening of the border in early 2022 has resulted in NOM increasing once again. It's important to remember that the current year's figures are still impacted by the restrictions that had been in place. In 2021-22, Queensland's net overseas migration was 23,430, compared to -12,850 in 2020-21. Definitely a rebound back to pre-pandemic trends, but the volume was still lower than the 31,750 recorded in 2018-19 - the last full year of data before the pandemic hit.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;">In contrast to the volatility in migration levels, natural increase has been relatively steady, with a slight decline in recent years. In 2021-22 the level of natural increase was 27,650, which was the lowest level recorded since the early 2000s. It has been driven the number of deaths increasing at a faster rate than the number of births. </span><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro";">This may surprise some readers, particularly given the strong population growth over many years.</span><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro";">However it could provide the momentum for an increase in the future, particularly if the age structure of interstate migrants is skewed towards people aged in their 20s and 30s. Which segues nicely into the next section.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>What are the characteristics of interstate migrants?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">In 2021-22 the number of people who moved to Queensland from the rest of Australia was 142,390. Despite popular perceptions, Victoria was not the main source of arrivals. That distinction goes to NSW, which is consistent with historic trends. A total of 68,230 people moved from NSW to Queensland in 2021-22, or 48% of the total. The equivalent figures for Victoria were 36,690 and 28%.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">What has changed is the number and proportion of arrivals from Victoria. There has been a 56% increase in the number of arrivals from Victoria since 2018-19, whereas arrivals from NSW increased by 28% over the same period. However the volume of arrivals from NSW remains far higher than other states and territories. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Young adults move residence more frequently than others, and this is generally tied to life events such as moving out of home, employment changes, and other life events. The chart below shows the age structure of interstate migrants moving to Queensland between 2012 and 2022. It clearly shows that younger cohorts are more dominant in the migration flow into Queensland, which provides momentum for future population growth.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHvf-Rj3v6S3VtNJO59iI31wNgSJjidRPTofJsDx_Bf2YziU2tdFCnlydeHBDLAEMTrMnf46dHRlMcCbDOe58F4EljdtE_GPaxLzuf-E8eq8jShU5RDBN5KrcqJztAdKiqTzbCXMSmoZ8fVtjbUujjxF6SZZRNndJYoOedWbx3SncOD-m0O7vd8JhO/s620/interstate%20arrivals%20by%20age%20qld.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHvf-Rj3v6S3VtNJO59iI31wNgSJjidRPTofJsDx_Bf2YziU2tdFCnlydeHBDLAEMTrMnf46dHRlMcCbDOe58F4EljdtE_GPaxLzuf-E8eq8jShU5RDBN5KrcqJztAdKiqTzbCXMSmoZ8fVtjbUujjxF6SZZRNndJYoOedWbx3SncOD-m0O7vd8JhO/s16000/interstate%20arrivals%20by%20age%20qld.jpg" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;">Notably, all cohorts recorded an increase in the volume of arrivals in 2022, reflecting the record interstate migration gain described above. In 2012 and 2017, young adults (15-29 year olds) formed the largest cohort of arrivals, but they were slightly outnumbered by 30-44 year olds in 2022. Together, these cohorts comprised just over half of arrivals to Queensland. This suggests that migration to Queensland is associated with economic drivers, such as employment, rather than a life cycle event such as retirement. This is in contrast to the popular perception that Queensland is a magnet for retirees and older people. Nonetheless, the number of arrivals aged 60 years and over doubled between 2012 and 2022, albeit from a far lower base than younger cohorts. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Source Sans Pro; font-size: medium;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro";"><span style="font-size: medium;">Queensland recorded the strongest population growth in Australia during 2021-22. The rate of growth was 2.0%, and the volume was 104,000. The level of net interstate migration gain was 55,420, which was the highest level recorded in the last 40 years. Net overseas migration rebounded sharply, approaching levels that were recorded prior to the pandemic. In contrast, natural increase has declined slightly in the last few years. This may change in future years due to the dominance of younger people moving to Queensland from the rest of Australia. </span></span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-48918647216368425852022-12-19T16:53:00.004+11:002022-12-19T20:40:49.096+11:00Birth numbers rebound in 2021 - but is it the whole story?<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Towards the end of each year, the ABS releases data on the number of births and deaths across the country. The births data generates significant interest, and more so this year as the fertility rate increased for the first time in many years. While the number of births, and the fertility rate, are important social indicators, they don't tell the full story in terms of population change. This blog looks at natural increase (births minus deaths) in Victoria.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How many births are there in Australia?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, the number of birth registrations in Australia was just shy of 310,000. This was a 5.3% increase on the 2020 figure of 294,369. Since 2008, births have generally exceeded 300,000 each year, but the fertility rate has declined since that time. It reached a low of 1.59 in 2020, before increasing slightly to 1.70 in 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It's important to recognise that the ABS data is based on registrations and these numbers can be influenced by lags in the process. This might be parents delaying registration, administrative issues, or in the case of Victoria, delays introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare releases data on the actual number of births, which are sourced from the National Perinatal Data Collection. <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mothers-babies/australias-mothers-babies/contents/about">This data shows</a> that in 2020, there were 295,976 babies born in Australia - a slightly higher number than that published by the ABS.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How many births are there in Victoria?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, there were 76,414 birth registrations in Victoria, resulting in a fertility rate of 1.53. Only the ACT recorded a lower fertility rate in 2021 (1.45). The ABS notes that lockdowns have created higher than usual <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/births-australia-methodology/2021">delays in registrations</a>, so it's possible that the number of births is slightly higher. For instance, 12% of births that occurred in 2020 were registered in 2021, a proportion that was much higher in Victoria than other states. Some of these are likely to be births that occurred towards the end of the year, but others will have occurred as a result of delays associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The LGA with the highest number of births registered in 2021 was Casey (5,464) followed by Wyndham (4,825) and Hume (3,767). These are all large LGAs on Melbourne's urban fringe where growth is driven by a combination of natural increase and net migration. Outside of Melbourne, the largest number of births was recorded in the regional city of Greater Geelong (3,159), more than double the number Greater Bendigo (1,459), another LGA focussed on a regional city.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Although Casey recorded the highest number of births, the resulting fertility rate was just 1.87. The highest fertility rates tend to be recorded in rural LGAs with small populations. West Wimmera recorded the highest fertility rate in 2021 (2.65), but was based on just 42 births. In fact, West Wimmera has held this title since 2018, but during that time the number of births has ranged between 40 and 55.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Natural increase </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">While the number of births is important for planning early years services such as kindergartens (and ultimately schools), populations don't grow and change on births alone. Natural increase (births minus deaths) and migration are the two components of population change. When the number of births exceeds deaths, the population will continue to grow unless the level of out migration is higher than the difference. The concept is similar in areas where the number of deaths is higher than the number of births, but in migration needs to at a level to cancel the difference.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The level of natural increase differs significantly across Victoria, as shown in the map below. The areas shaded green are those that recorded more deaths than births, ie natural decrease. These are the areas that may record population decline if the level of in migration is not high enough to offset the difference between births and deaths. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjukHkNdD9IG72udnLgEUEZebCeNuclbg8m9qS6baUuniD80gd-WeVC4z8tgkd74Pg-gwmLYTXncYAfXtjsGXtOiyXtOSut-N-o7PrfDyEEaJsS0NEDx7E1ofBpHMEQnIrYvmM70gaFMNw6lIU98E25_pAT-qyWdxFsp4HUW9dbzGrEbr9O_6HyYEKL/s768/vic%20natural%20increase%202021.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="768" height="508" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjukHkNdD9IG72udnLgEUEZebCeNuclbg8m9qS6baUuniD80gd-WeVC4z8tgkd74Pg-gwmLYTXncYAfXtjsGXtOiyXtOSut-N-o7PrfDyEEaJsS0NEDx7E1ofBpHMEQnIrYvmM70gaFMNw6lIU98E25_pAT-qyWdxFsp4HUW9dbzGrEbr9O_6HyYEKL/w640-h508/vic%20natural%20increase%202021.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">A total of 26 LGAs recorded natural decrease, but most of the numbers were quite small. The highest level of natural decrease was recorded by Mornington Peninsula (-181). It was the only LGA in metropolitan Melbourne to record more deaths than births. The age profile is older, which provides the demographic momentum for a higher number of deaths.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The darker shades of purple represent LGAs where the level of natural increase was highest. They are similar to those that recorded the highest number of births. As indicated above, population growth in these areas is driven by family households and young couples. They have large populations and a younger age profile. Casey and Wyndham recorded the highest levels of natural increase (3,927 and 3,912 respectively). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There were nine LGAs where the level of natural increase exceeded 1,000. Only one was located in regional Victoria, and this was Greater Geelong (1,034). In general, LGAs in regional Victoria that recorded higher levels of natural increase were those with large regional centres, or peri-urban LGAs located beyond metropolitan Melbourne. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Fertility rates are a key social indicator but they don't tell the whole story with regard to population change. The number of deaths is important, and the difference between births and deaths is termed natural increase. The way natural increase interacts with the level of migration determines how populations grow and change. In Victoria, natural increase is highest in LGAs on the metropolitan fringe where growth is driven by young families. Conversely, areas with older population profiles are more likely to record natural decrease.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-71253506396082328052022-11-21T17:48:00.002+11:002022-11-21T17:49:38.331+11:00The rise of high rise in Canberra<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">On a recent trip to Canberra I stayed in the suburb of Belconnen. I hadn't been there for many years and I was struck by the number of high rise apartment buildings around the town centre. High rise development is a relatively new phenomenon in Canberra but it is guided by the 2018 ACT Planning Strategy. The Census offers some insights into how high rise development has increased over the years and where these dwellings are located. Read on to find out more.</span></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b></b></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiHwhWQ7Hqsy5lt6IFYnkIEnjUDmHNMfMou15XijMuJ8oRr2wVAJ1r_Nxes4cJNHzModiv7iQRji3EDoIRkl2U7AqQHES4JzfEScRJdmoEXwH0vW96Swy31GyD2uFlKMxk2FzNLSB25dzGkMD1tdv4BUu1FMKVxT-uPEU3FaH-p6a-GVkwiMBsjhm1/s1512/belconnen%20highrise.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1512" data-original-width="1512" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiHwhWQ7Hqsy5lt6IFYnkIEnjUDmHNMfMou15XijMuJ8oRr2wVAJ1r_Nxes4cJNHzModiv7iQRji3EDoIRkl2U7AqQHES4JzfEScRJdmoEXwH0vW96Swy31GyD2uFlKMxk2FzNLSB25dzGkMD1tdv4BUu1FMKVxT-uPEU3FaH-p6a-GVkwiMBsjhm1/s320/belconnen%20highrise.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>High rise apartments in Belconnen (2022)</i></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>What is a high density dwelling?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Dwelling structure is the relevant Census variable for this analysis and essentially describes the type of dwelling. This can be a separate house, apartment building, villa unit or even a caravan or houseboat. Apartment buildings are classified by the number of floors and this enables dwellings to be more easily labelled as medium or high rise. Such has been the growth of very large apartment buildings in Australian cities that the ABS introduced a new category in the 2021 Census to separate buildings of nine or more storeys. The analysis in this blog defines high density as apartments in a three or more storey block, so it includes this new "super dense" category. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;">Dwelling density in Australia's cities</b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The 2021 Census showed that there are almost <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/dwellings">1.2 million high density dwellings in Australia</a>. This represents 11% of the dwelling stock, and is an increase of one-third on the 2016 figure. By way of comparison, the total dwelling stock increased by 9.3% over the same period.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Sydney has the highest proportion of high density dwellings (27.1%), followed by Canberra (17.4%) and Darwin (17.2%). At the other end of the scale, Hobart had the lowest proportion (2.0%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Dwelling types in Canberra</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The chart below shows how dwelling types have changed in Canberra between 2011 and 2021. Separate houses are the main type of dwelling, and increased in number by 11,300 over the ten years. However, their share of dwellings declined from 70.7% to 60.9%. This was due to a more rapid increase in medium and high density dwellings. Medium density dwellings increased by a similar number between 2011 and 2021 (11,280), and they comprised 21.4% of dwellings in 2021. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Zt9iDrRWnih7eKhaKb5_gRUoJM00kN0cb0KUTWCzaZXK_B3rAVO4p-B6WmaIpwmF39yS3RdDMoWHolKY5WSYP9Blpbc8g9F8U8WFneJWAboJj09AuCr1c8U58Y9X4PKyMJPptG7bgcULC308QKg9s4OBny03J-FrXUwlqOXrtFxwIVRhqXdGmbJJ/s620/dwelling%20structure%20canberra%202011-2021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Zt9iDrRWnih7eKhaKb5_gRUoJM00kN0cb0KUTWCzaZXK_B3rAVO4p-B6WmaIpwmF39yS3RdDMoWHolKY5WSYP9Blpbc8g9F8U8WFneJWAboJj09AuCr1c8U58Y9X4PKyMJPptG7bgcULC308QKg9s4OBny03J-FrXUwlqOXrtFxwIVRhqXdGmbJJ/s16000/dwelling%20structure%20canberra%202011-2021.jpg" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">High density dwellings more than doubled in number between 2011 and 2021. There were 13,490 high density dwellings in 2011, comprising 9.3% of the dwelling stock. By 2021 the equivalent figures were 32,450 and 17.4%. This has contributed to a rapidly changing skyline in parts of Canberra.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b></b></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbV_UjL0ahLd7ryXfWHPgqhcvbR_xyYzt5cJ9X1A2aB8OSNnnctTOKPuePIGiVrYvpC_kh8vX6eB5uCcsswDYt_4RG788dJJU56RqiVgXrJiuxY8CkTbmDpogVpH55e6RMsL7g82HVe_FCUxXrfMerXEd5sfeK9ksW6BLctjN0Dh-mOAjJvWzQ-wfl/s1403/kingston%20highrise.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="1403" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbV_UjL0ahLd7ryXfWHPgqhcvbR_xyYzt5cJ9X1A2aB8OSNnnctTOKPuePIGiVrYvpC_kh8vX6eB5uCcsswDYt_4RG788dJJU56RqiVgXrJiuxY8CkTbmDpogVpH55e6RMsL7g82HVe_FCUxXrfMerXEd5sfeK9ksW6BLctjN0Dh-mOAjJvWzQ-wfl/s320/kingston%20highrise.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>High rise apartments in Kingston (2021)</i></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Where are the high rise dwellings in Canberra?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">High rise dwellings in Canberra are spatially concentrated. There are nine SA2s where at least half the dwelling stock is high rise. This demonstrates just how much the skyline of Canberra has changed, yet as mentioned above, separate houses remain the main dwelling type. In fact, more than half of the SA2s in Canberra do not have any high rise dwellings - noting however that there are many that have small or minimal populations.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Th</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">e map below confirms this spatial concentration. Central parts of Canberra, particularly the SA2s of Civic and Kingston, have very high proportions of high density dwellings. In general, there is some correlation between the town centres, and higher proportions of high density dwellings. This is in line with the <a href="https://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0003/1288281/Map-6-growth-map.jpg">urban intensification areas</a> identified in the 2018 ACT Planning Strategy. For instance, 71.6% of dwellings in Belconnen are high density, as are 64.9% in Philip, which covers Woden Town Centre. Aside from these areas, Gungahlin in the north and Greenway in the south (which includes Tuggeranong) have notably high proportions of high density dwellings (47.1% and 58.4% respectively). </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3xZqrhvUkuhg7L-wqf01XAHnF29c2aSslnL667RV85SBt8uvlMc-KnfLR6-CjJX17AGyYp8mV_LO4AgH6sq5KqAvsmgRCTVmFRmLiZf6gucEJ30Qv_O3GSmaxEcD0yD0f4OyBc5nLKAsBbFYJUpYb3gbJY3F2dmrEhlrWsmoJwwioKb5zaE1iseT8/s808/canberra%20high%20rise%20dws.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="769" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3xZqrhvUkuhg7L-wqf01XAHnF29c2aSslnL667RV85SBt8uvlMc-KnfLR6-CjJX17AGyYp8mV_LO4AgH6sq5KqAvsmgRCTVmFRmLiZf6gucEJ30Qv_O3GSmaxEcD0yD0f4OyBc5nLKAsBbFYJUpYb3gbJY3F2dmrEhlrWsmoJwwioKb5zaE1iseT8/w609-h640/canberra%20high%20rise%20dws.jpg" width="609" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The spatial concentration of high density dwellings in Canberra continues a strong history of strategic planning in the city and is in alignment with the goals of the metropolitan strategy, the <a href="https://www.planning.act.gov.au/act-planning-strategy/home">2018 ACT Planning Strategy</a>. The strategy seeks to locate 70% of new dwellings within the existing urban footprint, and to concentrate higher densities around town centres. Concentrating high density dwellings in this manner not only restrains urban sprawl, but it promotes walkability because people live close to services. The high rise apartments in Belconnen are close to shops, open space and employment - including of course the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/">government agency</a> that provides the statistics for many of my blogs!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Dwelling densities in Australian cities are increasing. High density dwellings, defined as those in apartment blocks of three storeys or more, number more 1.2 million across the country and comprise 11% of the dwelling stock. Most dwellings in Canberra are low density separate houses, but this analysis shows that there are distinct concentrations of high density dwellings. 17% of Canberra's dwelling stock is high density. There are nine SA2s where more than half the dwelling stock is classified as high density, headed by Civic and Kingston. It is likely that the number of high density dwellings will continue to increase in line with the metropolitan planning strategy.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-62889474048007020252022-10-24T14:28:00.001+11:002022-10-24T14:28:32.451+11:00Australia is definitely losing its religion<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">When the 2021 Census data was released in July, the number and proportion of the population claiming no religion <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-28/census-2021-data-shows-a-changed-australia/101177152">attracted significant interest</a>. Almost 10 million Australians, or 38.7% of the population, now claim they have no religion. This is an increase of 41% on the 2016 figure. The Census is </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">the only reliable source of data on religion in Australia, and is typically used for planning schools and religious venues. What else does the data tell us about people with no religion?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>50 years of losing our religion</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/is-australia-least-religious-country.html">Australia has been steadily losing its religion since 1971</a>, when less than 10% claimed no religion. Except for a small decline in the proportion between 1996 and 2001, the no-religion population has been steadily increasing and the rate of increase has hastened in the last two Censuses. Some of this may be attributable to changes on the Census form, as well as various <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/religion/why-the-census-religion-question-matters/13489124">campaigns that encourage people to answer "no religion"</a>, particularly if they no longer go to church. But the rapidity in the growth of the no-religion population cannot be denied, and it matches trends in other countries.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;">Younger people are more likely to be non-religious</b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The chart below shows the proportion in each age group who claim no religion. It shows a strong relationship with age, with a steady decline in the proportion of the population with no religion particularly after the age of 25. Interestingly, the 0-4 year cohort had the highest proportion claiming no religion (49.7%), but this is likely to reflect their parent/s views. Similarly, older children (5-14 years) recorded a lower proportion in the no-religion category, but still higher than the national average. Up to age 40, more than 40% of the population claim no religion in each five year cohort. With increasing age, the proportion declines steadily. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">After the age of 80, less than 20% of the population have no religion.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqcu0D239K-HIz4gPNJ-0C-7h2S9n4EfMM5dEkyTYwJjj_R25qI2LMM16C6SZsCYGaodX6MXYURP41u9p9sxmm7tWMh9jUV5KQNB2HBX-KsfnaJlfnRKWV3c5UrkxfgcqpFDSwBRdhKpU0Zp5gFNWFuA4k6FDLHin9g1cMQS99hjupOesvmFRPo1x7/s620/no%20religion%20by%20age%202021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqcu0D239K-HIz4gPNJ-0C-7h2S9n4EfMM5dEkyTYwJjj_R25qI2LMM16C6SZsCYGaodX6MXYURP41u9p9sxmm7tWMh9jUV5KQNB2HBX-KsfnaJlfnRKWV3c5UrkxfgcqpFDSwBRdhKpU0Zp5gFNWFuA4k6FDLHin9g1cMQS99hjupOesvmFRPo1x7/s16000/no%20religion%20by%20age%202021.jpg" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">That younger people are more likely to have no religion suggests that the proportion will continue to increase in the future. This is because the momentum of their views will carry with them as they age, and continue to influence future generations. Personally, I'm surprised the the no-religion proportion did not reach 50% across the country in this Census. Obviously we're not quite there yet - unless you live in Tasmania. Read on.</span></div><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Where do people with no religion live?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Across the country, there was significant variation in the proportion of people claiming no religion. Tasmania recorded the highest proportion of all states and territories (49.9%), followed by South Australia (45.6%) and the ACT (44.0%). The higher proportion recorded in Tasmania and South Australia is interesting in light of the age structure of these states. They have the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population-age-and-sex/2021">highest median age</a>, which, given the chart shown above, might suggest that they have a lower proportion of people with no religion. This suggests that there are other factors at play that characterise non-religious populations. Further analysis of Census data and/or survey data would provide more insights.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, more than 278,000 Tasmanians indicated that they had no religion. The map below shows the proportion of this population in each LGA. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In total, there were 14 LGAs in Tasmania where more than half the population claim no religion. From a spatial perspective they were concentrated along parts of the northern coast, and across the south.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The City of Hobart recorded the highest proportion, with 55.1% claiming no religion. This was closely followed by Flinders (54.7%), and Huon Valley (54.5%). Although age has a distinct relationship with the propensity to claim no religion, it does not seem to be consistent across smaller geographic areas. For instance, the City of Hobart has a younger age profile, with a median age of 37.5 years. On the other hand, Flinders has the highest median age of all LGAs in Tasmania (58 years), yet the proportion claiming no religion is similar in both areas. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP6tAQoIkE38UwHO7RzMqgm11wemQ_7ZFNZqFHW9f_iFd5jRloPt0BbBc6-IHoyGS1iU3_eTQpHWxWjGoFiWRwY21nd9eU1-8uuFkEFPwACC0V62iAsXfcV2F16E7mhjl2DAocOyRBLrLZRfKoBL4EsgoQrCHhcG60QQOpq9Dj9WyOSOjqR30m6a7Q/s700/no%20religion%20tas%20lgas%202021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="685" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP6tAQoIkE38UwHO7RzMqgm11wemQ_7ZFNZqFHW9f_iFd5jRloPt0BbBc6-IHoyGS1iU3_eTQpHWxWjGoFiWRwY21nd9eU1-8uuFkEFPwACC0V62iAsXfcV2F16E7mhjl2DAocOyRBLrLZRfKoBL4EsgoQrCHhcG60QQOpq9Dj9WyOSOjqR30m6a7Q/s16000/no%20religion%20tas%20lgas%202021.jpg" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">LGAs with the lowest proportion of people with no religion were recorded across central parts of Tasmania. Central Highlands recorded the lowest proportion (40.2%), but this is still higher than the national average of 38.7%. Central Highlands has one of the older age profiles in Tasmania, with a median age of just under 50 years. Similarly, Glamorgan-Spring Bay, a popular retirement area on the east coast, has a high median age (57.4 years) and one of the lowest proportions of people with no religion in the state (44.7%). </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Within the Hobart metropolitan area, Glenorchy stands out as having a lower proportion of people with no religion (43.5%), despite having a younger population profile. </span></div><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The proportion of Australians with no religion continues to increase. In 2021, just under 10 million people, or 38.7% of the population claimed no religion. Since 1971 this proportion has been increasing steadily, and has gained pace in the last decade. There is a strong relationship between the propensity to claim no religion and age, with younger people more likely to do so. Tasmania had the highest proportion of its population with no religion (49.9%). But at small levels of geography (LGAs), the relationship with age is less distinct. More research is required to provide insights into the reasons for this.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-4125906440128861742022-09-26T16:33:00.001+10:002022-09-26T16:34:02.403+10:00Volunteering trends in 2021<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Data on volunteering has been collected in the Census since 2006. It's a simple question that merely asks whether or not a person has volunteered for an organisation or group in the previous twelve months. Although it doesn't provide an indication of the frequency or nature of volunteering activity, the Census data does provide good data on the demographic characteristics of volunteers. What does the 2021 Census tells us about volunteering in Australia?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How many people volunteer in Australia?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Volunteering data has been of interest this Census due to the impact of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns. The data provides an indicator as to the extent of unpaid work in the economy, but it is also an important form of social capital. In smaller towns and remote areas, a strong volunteering workforce ensures that services can function effectively. In the Census, volunteering data is collected for all people aged 15 years and over.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">According to the 2021 Census, there were a total of 2.93 million people across Australia who indicated they had volunteered at some point in the previous 12 months. This represented 14.1% of the population aged 15 years and over. Females (15.3%) were more likely to volunteer than males (12.9%). People aged 65-74 years had the highest volunteering rate in 2021 (18.0%). The lowest was for people aged 25-34 years (10.2%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The number of volunteers declined by almost 20% compared to 2016, when 3.62 million (19%) people indicated they had volunteered. The chart below shows that volunteering rates declined in all age groups between 2016 and 2021, particularly for younger age cohorts.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB9omav-y6gMVEgsedwTN8Mi502jv5FJchKwzY8AIh67Yk__OhRG_LEjnvKjAJ7h-CBoDFr-epuMp-QzGMWkK49mBJjMGRKi-TwkZ3rOKzgJ-oXoMJVspCv2AQIpVn3Niwjdv2lmSHzI2taByCuS8n4RJ0jiAT4m8kNVEvOSSPX1l6q4Ng7N16ul5B/s630/volunteering%20by%20age%202016%20and%202021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="630" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB9omav-y6gMVEgsedwTN8Mi502jv5FJchKwzY8AIh67Yk__OhRG_LEjnvKjAJ7h-CBoDFr-epuMp-QzGMWkK49mBJjMGRKi-TwkZ3rOKzgJ-oXoMJVspCv2AQIpVn3Niwjdv2lmSHzI2taByCuS8n4RJ0jiAT4m8kNVEvOSSPX1l6q4Ng7N16ul5B/s16000/volunteering%20by%20age%202016%20and%202021.jpg" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The age structure of the population provides and indication of the potential pool of volunteers in the community. Community development teams in local government can use Census and population forecast data to plan for the volunteer workforce. This includes targetted recruitment and succession planning to ensure the ongoing viability of community based functions that rely on a volunteer workforce.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How did lockdowns impact the volunteering rate in 2021?</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It would be easy to attribute the decline in volunteering solely to COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions. But the reality is more complex than that, as the decline in volunteering was not restricted to areas that endured lockdowns. In addition, the Census question on volunteering relates to the previous 12 months ie back to August 2020 - and fortunately no areas in Australia were subject to lockdowns for that length of time.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The table below shows that across Australia, regional areas recorded higher rates of volunteering than the state capitals. Only regional Tasmania recorded a lower volunteering rate (17.5%) compared to 18.7% in Greater Hobart. However all parts of Australia, including regional areas, had a lower volunteering rate in 2021. In Greater Hobart the number of volunteers increased marginally between 2016 and 2021 (0.3%), but the rate still declined due to population growth.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, regional South Australia recorded the highest volunteering rate (22.0%), and the lowest was recorded in Greater Sydney (11.6%). Greater Melbourne, which endured a lengthy lockdown in the second half of 2020, recorded a volunteering rate of 12.1%. This compared to 17.6% in 2016. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In terms of volunteer numbers, the largest declines were recorded in Greater Melbourne (-24.6%), followed by Greater Sydney (-24.1%) and regional Victoria (-21.3%). In other words, the areas that endured more days in lockdown recorded the greatest decline in numbers. Clearly, lockdowns impacted on opportunities to volunteer, but it does not explain the decline across other parts of Australia where there were no lockdowns.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2hr3juvzvOOriVo2U4deWhslnZ1okRpH1Ej_t4oys4S0e7fRwJi6_nBsdXGKA2mzVu1AmUe3r06TuBXc4yOr3ofyR938nNumNCVcbtIUiBTz9Vq8GLAtXohsudjyRYGs9hqhOsWODx_ot_39bHI0HDAc5b7hN-euP4QR9MN0tiK7K4SmkgTjA1CUF/s590/volunteers%20by%20region%202016%20and%202021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2hr3juvzvOOriVo2U4deWhslnZ1okRpH1Ej_t4oys4S0e7fRwJi6_nBsdXGKA2mzVu1AmUe3r06TuBXc4yOr3ofyR938nNumNCVcbtIUiBTz9Vq8GLAtXohsudjyRYGs9hqhOsWODx_ot_39bHI0HDAc5b7hN-euP4QR9MN0tiK7K4SmkgTjA1CUF/s16000/volunteers%20by%20region%202016%20and%202021.jpg" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This is where data from other sources can help fill some of the gaps. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The ABS undertakes a </span><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/general-social-survey-summary-results-australia/2020" style="font-family: helvetica;">General Social Survey</a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> on an irregular basis which provides further insights. In the 12 months prior to the 2020 survey, a total of 489.5 million hours of volunteering activity was recorded. The most common types of organisations where volunteering occurred were sports and physical recreation, and religion. The most common reasons given for volunteering were to help others and personal satisfaction. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The GSS also recorded a decline in volunteering between the 2019 and 2020 surveys, but the ABS cautions against direct comparisons due to the impact of lockdowns. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Other ABS data produced via the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/mar-2021">Household Impacts of COVID-19 survey </a>confirmed that 16% of people who had volunteered in the twelve months prior to March 2021 were no longer volunteering as their organisation had ceased to operate as a result of lockdowns. However work and family commitments were more common reasons for no longer volunteering. This is consistent with the larger decline in the volunteering rate recorded for people aged 15-44 in particular.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, there were 2.93 million volunteers in Australia, representing 14.1% of the population aged 15 years and over. The number and rate declined when compared to 2016. The decline was felt more strongly in younger age groups, as well as in those states that endured longer lockdowns. Census data provides critical insights into the demographic characteristics of volunteers, which can be used for workforce planning purposes. But this data can also by supplemented by survey data which provides greater insights into the volunteer workforce.</span></div><p></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-31152342941167349032022-08-15T18:28:00.001+10:002022-08-15T18:28:48.647+10:00The Nepalese population in Australia has doubled since 2016<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In late June the ABS released the first batch of 2021 Census data. The Census provides critical information on the socio-economic characteristics of the population, which underpins the evidence base for service planning. This is the first in a series of a number of blogs highlighting important and interesting changes to the Australian demographic landscape. This blog looks at the Nepalese population in Australia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How many Nepalese people are there in Australia?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The Nepalese born community is now one of the largest CALD groups in Australia, having doubled in size since 2016. This increase was flagged in the annual <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/australias-migrant-communities-in-2020.html">population estimates produced by the ABS</a> on the size of overseas born communities. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Census data shows that in 2016, there were 54,760 Nepalese born people in Australia, increasing to 122,510 in 2021. This is the largest increase of the key CALD groups. Census data also shows that around three-quarters of Nepalese born people arrived in Australia in the last ten years. Many Nepalese people who come to Australia are students and skilled migrants. Since 2017, Nepal has been one of the main countries of <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/international-education-data-and-research/international-student-numbers-country-state-and-territory">people applying for student visas in Australia</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Unsurprisingly, the Nepalese born community has a young age structure, with around 95% aged under 45 years. Typically, the age structure of more recent CALD communities migrating to Australia is skewed towards young adults. However over</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> time the population matures and begins to age. This is exemplified by the CALD communities who mainly arrived in Australia during the 1950s and 1960s. For instance, the Italian born community is ageing rapidly, with about 42% aged 75 years or more. Their numbers declined by 6% between 2016 and 2021, mainly as a result of mortality.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Due to the staggered release of Census data, there is limited data on the characteristics of the Nepalese born population in the public domain. Aside from age and year of arrival, the only other indicative data is based on language spoken. There are around 133,070 Nepali speakers in Australia, and more than 90% of these people have good English proficiency ie they speak English well or very well. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Sydney is home to around half of the Nepalese born community</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Identifying concentrations of CALD communities is important from a service planning perspective, particularly for those who are recent arrivals or whose English proficiency is limited. With regards the distribution of the Nepalese born community, almost half of them live in Greater Sydney. The community numbered just 14,870 in 2011, but has almost quadrupled in size to reach 59,055 in 2021.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5q0YMPJzZD0QdwE9SWudDu1Z8-kg7uGmjOgeSHR6cnQbdhHoSqhiLizrDT8IQ5ou7OtZ__LkuriioOOM9EkCryv5GuDYan-X71ebZEX-6FbotIsllZnXK2IMDspB8I8OQz4Dplvo25zLbusSpq2R5GVcR5pUrMQR55c1FFS7dxN6ik4l9EfE53-U8/s699/nepalese%20born%20sydney%20lgas%202021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="670" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5q0YMPJzZD0QdwE9SWudDu1Z8-kg7uGmjOgeSHR6cnQbdhHoSqhiLizrDT8IQ5ou7OtZ__LkuriioOOM9EkCryv5GuDYan-X71ebZEX-6FbotIsllZnXK2IMDspB8I8OQz4Dplvo25zLbusSpq2R5GVcR5pUrMQR55c1FFS7dxN6ik4l9EfE53-U8/w613-h640/nepalese%20born%20sydney%20lgas%202021.jpg" width="613" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The map below shows that within Sydney, the population is highly concentrated. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The inner west LGAs of Burwood (7.6%) and Strathfield (6.8%) have the highest proportion of Nepalese born people in their populations. However Cumberland Council, located further west, had the highest number of Nepalese born people (10,060), followed by Georges River (8,748). The proportions in these LGAs were 5.7% and 4.3% respectively.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In contrast, there are relatively few Nepalese born people in regional NSW. The main concentration was in Dubbo Regional Council, where there were 710 people comprising just over 1% of the population.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Nepalese born communities in Victoria and Tasmania</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Outside of Sydney, Nepalese born communities are much smaller in size. Greater Melbourne is home to another 18,510 Nepalese born people, or around 15% of the Australian total. The Nepalese born are concentrated across the northern suburbs, particularly in the LGAs of Moreland (2.1% of the population), Hume and Whittlesea (both less than 1%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It may surprise some readers that Tasmania is home to more than 6,200 Nepalese born people, representing just over 1% of the population. This makes Nepal the third largest overseas born community in Tasmania behind the United Kingdom and China. What's more remarkable is the tremendous growth in the community - even in 2016, there were just 500 Nepalese born in the state. In other words, there has been an eightfold increase in just five years!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, two-thirds of the Nepalese born community live in Greater Hobart, most notably in the northern suburbs. In Glenorchy LGA, 4.3% of the population (2,150 people) were born in Nepal, compared to just 260 people in 2016. Hobart and Launceston LGAs also have sizeable Nepalese born communities, comprising 1.8% of the population.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In a short space of time, Nepal has become one of the main CALD communities in Australia. In 2021, there are more 122,000 Nepalese born people living in Australia. The community has doubled in size since 2016 on the back of strong migration. It is spatially concentrated, with almost half of the community living in Sydney, with smaller clusters in Melbourne and Hobart.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">2021 Census data will continue its staged release over the next 18 months. I'm particularly looking forward to the data becoming available in Tablebuilder, so that I can provide better insights on the characteristics of the Australian population.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-80576648761073735212022-07-18T18:02:00.002+10:002022-07-18T18:02:39.476+10:00Recent population trends in Australia<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?</span></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;"><span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><b style="font-family: helvetica;">Rebased population estimates</b><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Population estimates for each quarter have been <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/detailed-methodology-information/information-papers/methodology-used-rebased-population-estimates-june-2021">rebased and revised</a> from the September 2016 quarter onwards. At June 2021, there was an adjustment of approximately 50,000 (0.2%) to the total population. This reflects new information made available as a result of the 2021 Census, the post enumeration survey, and other demographic data. The previous population estimate for Australia was 25.738 million, but this was adjusted to 25.688 million. There are different rates of adjustment in each state and territory depending on the Census results and other demographic data. The populations of NSW and Victoria were revised downwards by 94,840 and 101,030 respectively. In contrast the population of Western Australia was revised upwards by 67,610 persons.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>What is Australia's population?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This release of data also contained population estimates up to December 2021. Australia's population was 25.77 million, </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">an increase of 0.5% (127,950 people) over the previous twelve months. Natural increase continues to drive population growth, with net overseas migration (NOM) still negative for the twelve month period (-3,600). However, from November 2021 international border controls were relaxed, resulting in an increase in people entering the country. As a result, NOM was 63,630 in the December quarter. This was the highest quarterly gain since the beginning of the pandemic. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The chart below shows the components of population change from 1982 onwards. The impact of the international border closure is clear to see, but there is a small uptick in 2021 due to the changes described in the previous paragraph. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The international border was fully reopened in February 2022, so it's expected that NOM will continue to increase. The March quarter traditionally records higher NOM, due to the arrival of international students to coincide with the start of the academic year</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt18yuaEG_9eU9GsihgVdZi4LFhvhQHWUHBAU0KuqwZggha2b0swpkZldiQDA6azYAim4bR0rMdtrgWM1DueJJwZ1-CO2bQ8uqO5Jma2MT-oJnyWMkseZDM0cVQpJs0HlhXH0gS2EguGCGB8pAoL9939Bl5ZFHBYJG-AOUcitaGgncpLur8gDqm2-I/s710/components%20of%20change%20Aust%201982-2021.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="710" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt18yuaEG_9eU9GsihgVdZi4LFhvhQHWUHBAU0KuqwZggha2b0swpkZldiQDA6azYAim4bR0rMdtrgWM1DueJJwZ1-CO2bQ8uqO5Jma2MT-oJnyWMkseZDM0cVQpJs0HlhXH0gS2EguGCGB8pAoL9939Bl5ZFHBYJG-AOUcitaGgncpLur8gDqm2-I/w640-h486/components%20of%20change%20Aust%201982-2021.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Population trends in Australia's states and territories</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Queensland was the fastest growing state in 2021, recording a growth rate of 1.4%. This was followed by Western Australia with a growth rate of 1.1%. Both these states grew at more than twice the national average of 0.5%. At the other end of the scale, Victoria's annual growth rate was -0.1%. It was the only state to record a decline, though the growth rates of both NSW and the Northern Territory (NT) were very modest (0.1%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, the population of NSW increased by 11,240 people to reach a population of just under 8.1 million. NSW has been characterised by very modest growth over the last two years. The growth rate in 2020 and 2021 was just 0.1%. Despite the closure of the international border, NSW continued to record more overseas arrivals than departures, and is the main reason why the state did not record a decline in population. The reopening of the international border should see NSW population growth increase. This is because the state traditionally receives the largest proportion of overseas migrants.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">NSW has long recorded a loss of population through net interstate migration and 2021 was no exception. In fact ,the net loss increased considerably, reaching -35,340. This was the largest loss in a calendar year since the early 2000s. In 2002 and 2003 the net loss of people interstate exceeded 30,000, but these amounts are still short of the -42,480 net loss recorded in 1989. Just under half of people leaving NSW move to Queensland.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/population-growth-in-australia-lowest.html">changes in Victoria's population growth patterns</a> have been well documented. In 2021, the state recorded a small loss of population (-3,520, or -0.1%) to reach a population of 6.56 million. People left Victoria for overseas, and also other parts of Australia, in a complete reversal of trends that had been sustained for the better part of a decade. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Net interstate migration in 2021 increased to -19,390, numbers that were last seen in the mid 1990s. Most Victorians move to NSW or Queensland, with the balance tipping in favour of Queensland during 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Although Victoria's population declined when measured annually, the Dec 2021 quarter showed an increase in the population. This was largely due to a gain of people from overseas. The quarterly growth was 13,470, and comes after six quarters of negative growth. This is likely to continue into 2022 but net interstate migration will temper the overall growth rate if current trends continue.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Queensland has lead the way on population growth over the last two years, driven by higher volumes of net interstate migration. In 2021, Queensland gained more than 50,000 people from other parts of Australia - the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/historical-population/2016">highest volume recorded since the early 1970s</a>. An additional 73,690 people called Queensland home in 2021, and at the end of the year the population was 5.27 million. If these trends continue, and levels of net overseas migration start to return to pre-pandemic levels, we could see growth rates similar to that recorded in the late 2000s (the state grew by more than 115,000 people in 2008).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In the last two years both South Australia (SA) and Western Australia (WA) have recorded a gain in population through interstate migration. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This trend had been some time coming in WA, with net interstate migration losses declining since 2016. In 2020, WA recorded net interstate migration gain of 2,140, and increased to 9,290 in 2021. This increase occurred despite the state having some of the tightest border restrictions in the country.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The gain in South Australia is a marked shift from previous trends, as the state has traditionally lost people to other parts of Australia. The gains are small - in both 2020 and 2021 it was less than 1,000 people. But even when this is compared to 2019, when the net loss was -3,860, it's clear to see that this is a new trend in South Australia. Whether it's sustained in a post pandemic demographic landscape remains to be seen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In recent years, population change in the NT has been variable, with some periods of decline. Much of the variability is driven by changes in the level of migration, particularly interstate. The NT has lost population to other parts of Australia since 2009. In 2018, the loss exceeded 4,200 persons, and contributed to a decline in the overall population. In 2020, the loss was tempered somewhat (-1,670), but it increased again in 2021 to -3,420. Queensland was the main destination for about one third of people leaving the NT in 2021. The population of the NT has been tantalisingly close to 250,000 since the September 2020 quarter, but it may finally reach that milestone now that the international border is open.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia's population was rebased as a result of the 2021 Census results, with a adjustment of around 50,000 people (0.2%) to the previous estimate. Population estimates at December 2021 show that the population of Australia is 25.77 million, an increase of 0.5% on the previous year. Queensland was the fastest growing state in 2021 (1.4%), whereas population growth was negative in Victoria (-0.1%). The reopening of Australia's international border in February 2022 is likely to see another shift in demographic trends, as net overseas migration will likely contribute to growth across the country.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-57449886751168093022022-06-13T20:14:00.002+10:002022-06-13T20:15:21.924+10:00Population distribution in Australia<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">One of the more interesting demographic trends in the last two years has been the increased movement of people out of large cities into regional and rural areas. These so-called "flee changers" have local impacts with regard the demand for services and infrastructure, there is still some question as to whether this represents a long term shift in the distribution of the Australian population. This blog looks at the distribution of the Australian population over the last 100 years, concentrating on the state capital/rest of state split.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Geography issues</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are a number of ways of measure the level of urbanisation, but this blog uses the state capital/rest of state split. Currently, state capitals are defined geographically as the Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA). However, state capitals have grown significantly over the last 100 years, and as a result the boundaries used to define them have also changed. Localities that were once country towns have been swallowed up by the expanding cities. As recently as 1966 the Melbourne suburb of Keysborough was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/2106.01966?OpenDocument">listed as a separate urban area</a> for Census purposes.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The data used in this blog is sourced from the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/historical-population/2016">ABS Historical Population release</a>. Fortunately, it uses the GCCSA boundaries from 1971, so the boundary is stable from this time. GCCSAs are used to represent state capital cities and the remaining area refers to the rest of state. Before 1971, Census data is used, and it is unclear how the boundaries have changed. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">However, as a general measure, the capital city/rest of state split is still useful and demonstrates the increasing dominance of state capitals over time. There are other geographic units such as the Section of State and Urban Centre classifications defined by the ABS. However these have different degrees of urbanity and the data is not readily accessible in intercensal years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Australia's settlement pattern</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world. The settlement pattern is a legacy of the colonial era, and is characterised by large state capital cities. Many of these comprise the bulk of their state's population and in several states there is a lack of a significant "second" city. The image below shows the proportion of each state's population living in the capital city and the rest of state from 1921 onwards.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8CpPufXcDfUSzXLYsOVUcwLmpFiP7Nvcz-OxX8p9EUrJo2005yyTF-OlgvacPOBMqZMvVFWW-CrUVGYievk-aNqvS7CqKqXBX51ECaQFmZSboO23JbQIGb2BkYq5JEGfYhYdfxEg80huKf87EF5x_HIs1AOpHIMf7yZeScCxzTdoJ2Mm3uJcDVBQZ/s1051/cap%20city%20rest%20of%20state%20splits.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1051" data-original-width="890" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8CpPufXcDfUSzXLYsOVUcwLmpFiP7Nvcz-OxX8p9EUrJo2005yyTF-OlgvacPOBMqZMvVFWW-CrUVGYievk-aNqvS7CqKqXBX51ECaQFmZSboO23JbQIGb2BkYq5JEGfYhYdfxEg80huKf87EF5x_HIs1AOpHIMf7yZeScCxzTdoJ2Mm3uJcDVBQZ/w542-h640/cap%20city%20rest%20of%20state%20splits.jpg" width="542" /></a></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p>Although the proportion of the population living in state capitals has increased over time, this has not been at the expense of population growth in the rest of the state. It is merely a shift in the balance between the two. In 1921, the combined population of state capital cities was 2.4 million, comprising 44% of the Australian population. By 2021, 17.4 million Australians (68%) lived in state capital cities. In comparison, the combined rest of state population in 1921 was 3.11 million, increasing to 8.4 million by 2021. Population growth in state capitals has simply outpaced that occurring in the rest of states, trends that have been reinforced by overseas migration and structural change in the economy, particularly the shift away from agriculture to services.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, the state with the highest proportion of its population in the state capital was Western Australia. Just under 80% of Western Australians lived in Greater Perth, which had a population of 2.14 million. The regional centre of Bunbury is the second largest urban area in Western Australia, but it's much smaller, with a 2021 population of 75,440. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 1921, the proportion of the state's population living in Perth was 46.2%, and the population was just 156,000. Perth overtook the rest of WA's population in the early 1940s and since that time has grown rapidly. At the same time, the rest of WA's population has also grown, reaching 540,420 in 2021. Perth's population increased 14 times over in 100 years, but that of rest of WA increased by 3 times. This highlights the shift towards urban living that has characterised Australia in the last 100 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">South Australia and Victoria also have a very high proportion of their populations living in the state capital. Greater Adelaide comprises 77.7% of South Australia's population, and Greater Melbourne comprises 76.6% of the Victorian population. In 1921, just over half of each state's population lived in the capital, but this increased rapidly after WW2.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Greater Melbourne's population declined in 2021 due to the demographic impacts of COVID-19, whereas the rest of state increased. This resulted in a slight decline in the proportion of the Victorian population living in Greater Melbourne (0.4 percentage points).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Not all states are dominated by their capitals. Less than 50% of the populations of Queensland and Tasmania live in Greater Brisbane and Greater Hobart respectively. Just 44% of Tasmanians live in Hobart. Tasmania's settlement pattern has been influenced by historical factors, such as the early establishment of a second city - Launceston - in the north of the state. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2021, the population of Launceston and surrounds was almost 89,000, making it about one-third the size of Hobart. In recent years, </span><a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/hobart-and-launceston-compare-pair.html" style="font-family: helvetica;">Hobart has grown steadily, while growth in Launceston has been more variable</a><span style="font-family: helvetica;">. This has tended to reinforce the dominance of Hobart as the primary metropolitan area in Tasmania, even though less than half the population of Tasmania lives there.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Approximately half of Queensland's population lives in Brisbane. Queensland's urban hierarchy is somewhat unique in Australia, with a large number of significant urban areas. The South East Queensland region also includes the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. The Gold Coast is one of the largest urban areas in Australia, with a 2021 population exceeding 700,000. In addition, the regional cities of Toowoomba, Townsville and Cairns each have populations well in excess of 100,000 people.</span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In recent years, Queensland's population growth has continued to be driven by increasing levels of net interstate migration. South East Queensland has been the main beneficiary of this growth. The higher volume of growth in Brisbane means that it will likely reach </span><a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/queenslands-shifting-population.html" style="font-family: helvetica;">50% of the state's population</a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> in the mid 2020s.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia's largest state, NSW, occupies a position between these extremes. Greater Sydney comprises 65.5% of the NSW population. The regional cities of Newcastle and Wollongong, as well as the Central Coast region, are the next largest settlements in the state. For many years, the <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/are-people-leaving-sydney-and-melbourne.html">number of people leaving Sydney</a> for other parts of NSW has been increasing. This has meant the proportion of the NSW population living in Sydney has shown minimal change since 2016.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Discussion</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There is a lot of speculation as to whether or not large numbers of people will continue to move out of state capitals, particularly Sydney and Melbourne. Unfortunately the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional">ABS has not released any further data</a> on internal migration to inform these trends. The release of 2021 Census data will provide more information, but relevant migration data will not be released until later in the year. This will answer questions on the destinations of former Sydney and Melbourne residents, but will not provide information on the reasons for moving. Although it is thought to relate to the shift to working from home, it remains a fact that it is</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> mainly true of professional workers and policies differ by workplace. In other words, not everyone has flexibility regarding where they can live in relation to their workplace, so other factors are influencing internal migration trends.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The release of 2021 population estimates showed that <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2022/04/population-trends-for-local-areas.html">peri-urban areas around the state capitals tended to record higher rates of population growth</a>. It's very possible that these areas will continue to grow strongly, particularly if residential land supply facilitates new housing opportunities. Peri-urban areas offer the benefits of semi-rural living within commuting distance of state capitals. From the perspective of the state capital/rest of state population split, this generally would tip the balance in favour of population increase in the rest of state. Peri-urban areas blur the lines between the state capitals and rest of state, highlighting the complexities of measuring the level of urbanisation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The Australian settlement pattern is characterised by the dominance of the state capital cities and this has increased over time. In 1921, 44% of the Australian population lived in state capitals, increasing to 68% in 2021. Despite this shift, the population of both state capitals and the rest of states have increased, albeit at a faster rate in the former. Just under 80% of Western Australians live in Perth, whereas just 44% of Tasmanians live in Hobart. In recent years, increasing numbers of people have moved out of Sydney and Melbourne to the rest of their respective states. However there has been little change in the proportion of the population living in the state capitals. Future growth in rest of state areas is likely to favour peri-urban areas, where people can take advantage of semi-rural living opportunities.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-48620633455427240132022-05-17T20:48:00.017+10:002022-05-18T17:17:50.189+10:00Presentation on population trends, COVID-19 and planning<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This month's blog is a little different. It consists of a presentation I delivered </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">to University of Melbourne students on population trends, population forecasts, and the impact of COVID-19 on these. I also touched on community infrastructure planning to demonstrate how population data is used in a practical way. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The presentation is based on an article I wrote for <i><a href="https://www.planning.org.au/news-archive/planning-news/planning-news">Planning News</a></i> in August 2021, as well as a blog I wrote about the continued <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/population-forecasts-in-time-of.html">relevance of population forecasts</a> in early 2022. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Blogging wise, things will be back to normal next month. 28th June sees the release of 2021 Census data, which will provide updated data on many of the blogs I've written in the past few years.</span></p>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="400" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/EBxPvGTDJseQZL?hostedIn=slideshare&page=upload" width="476"></iframe>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-25259057653682239242022-04-27T22:09:00.002+10:002022-04-27T22:10:08.669+10:00Population change in South East Queensland<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Queensland is currently the fastest growing state in Australia. In 2020-21, the population increased by 0.9%, well above the national average of 0.2%. The volume of growth was just shy of 46,000 people. Queensland's population growth is driven by interstate migration. In recent years, the volume has increased, and has accelerated since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it's not all sunshine and roses. This blog looks at population change by SA2 in South East Queensland (SEQ). It shows that while there are pockets of strong growth, at the same time, some areas recorded a decline in population.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>South East Queensland (SEQ)</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are many definitions of SEQ, and this blog uses the one determined by the <a href="https://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/regions/queensland">Queensland Dept of State Development</a>. This consists of 11 LGAs covering Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and inland to the Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim region. The analysis presented here however is at the SA2 level. T</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">his is an appropriate scale for spatial analysis due to the population size of some LGAs. For example, the City of Brisbane's population exceeds 1.2 million people, and that of the Gold Coast a further 643,460.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020-21, the population of SEQ increased by 1.0%, or 37,830 people, to reach a population of 3.77 million. Almost three-quarters of Queensland's population live in the region. There is a 200km stretch of coastline with almost <a href="https://blog.id.com.au/2013/population/australian-census/the-200-kilometre-city/">continuous urban development</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Spatial patterns of population change</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The map below shows the percentage change in population by SA2. Areas shaded purple increased in population, while those shaded green declined in population during 2020-21.</span></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ0tkhxCG4tGJh1dMACef5R9gY5rXM7ae26fvrROgMWlhFUb-F_gObl9M1prPnhwzxWxMMcLNH_jpmUzutrTV-9sglc98W7Gm75h_0m1bdS_k8Ni7FQFM6Ec63paPopjiUIuBGbUZE4-7e3lzEFRSWX_mnocd8Qq6YqL_5DldlxTd9ogWdUSloY0yh/s812/seq%20popn%20growth%20by%20SA2.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="788" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ0tkhxCG4tGJh1dMACef5R9gY5rXM7ae26fvrROgMWlhFUb-F_gObl9M1prPnhwzxWxMMcLNH_jpmUzutrTV-9sglc98W7Gm75h_0m1bdS_k8Ni7FQFM6Ec63paPopjiUIuBGbUZE4-7e3lzEFRSWX_mnocd8Qq6YqL_5DldlxTd9ogWdUSloY0yh/w621-h640/seq%20popn%20growth%20by%20SA2.jpg" width="621" /></a></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In general, the fastest growing SA2s were located in new residential areas on the outskirts of Brisbane metropolitan area, the northern part of the Gold Coast, and parts of the Sunshine Coast west of Caloundra. T</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">hese SA2s are located in areas with new housing estates that attract young couples and families, internal migration was the primary driver of population growth. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In other words, the growth patterns exhibited in SEQ during 2020-21 are typical of growth patterns in other Australian cities. Interstate migration may have contributed to some of this growth, but it's not the whole story as depicted in some media commentary.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Ripley, a new suburb in Ipswich, recorded the strongest growth rate in 2020-21 (19.4%), to reach a population of 11,645. Since 2013, Ripley has increased in population by more than 10% per annum. There were another six SA2s in SEQ that recorded a growth rate exceeding 10%, including Pallara-Willawong, Pimpama and Chambers Flat - Logan Reserve. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Despite these pockets of growth, there were parts of SEQ where the population declined. This was more evident in the established suburbs of Brisbane, Logan, as well as the Gold Coast and much of Noosa.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">SA2s that recorded the strongest decline were located in inner Brisbane, notably St Lucia (-5.3%), Brisbane City (-4.2%), Kelvin Grove - Herston (-3.5%) and Woodridge (-3.3%). St Lucia is notable as the location of the University of Queensland. It's been documented that the university sector has been particularly hard hit during the pandemic, with many international students unable to enter the country, while others have left. This has also been a <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/where-do-international-students-live.html">key feature of population decline</a> in the inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">On the Gold Coast, the SA2s that declined in population were more established suburbs, such as Blundall (-2.1%), but in numeric terms the losses were generally small. Any population losses on the Gold Coast were more than offset by strong growth in the north, continuing the slow process of closing the gap with the southern outskirts of Brisbane. Population decline in parts of the Gold Coast seems contrary to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-12/gold-coast-rental-market-overwhelms-crisis-accommodation/13140710">reports of a tight housing market</a>. However there are several influences, including </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">supply and the influence of the short stay rental accommodation sector.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Population decline was also a feature of Noosa, contrasting with the stronger growth across most of the Sunshine Coast. However the declines were small. For example, Tewantin declined by 1.1%, or 112 people. Population decline in these SA2s was the result of natural decrease ie more deaths than births. This reflects an older population, small households, and limited opportunities for residential development. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In contrast, Noosa Hinterland grew by 1.7%. The SA2s in Somerset, Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim all grew modestly, generally through a mix of internal migration and natural increase. These areas are peri-urban in nature, providing opportunities for semi-rural living within commuting distance of Brisbane and the Gold Coast, particularly in their small towns and villages.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Strong growth without overseas migration</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Like other states and territories, Queensland's population growth was impacted by the closure of the international border. In 2020-21, net overseas migration was -14,540 ie more departures than arrivals. But net interstate migration increased by almost one-quarter, reaching 31,180. This was the highest level since the mid 2000s and is a continuation of an upward trend over the course of the last decade or so.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">How rapidly would the population have grown without the border closure? It's hard to say precisely, but we can consider past levels of NOM. In 2018-19 it was 31,750. If this level was maintained in 2020-21, total growth in Queensland would have been more than 90,000 - or the highest volume in ten years. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Queensland is currently the fastest growing state in Australia, largely driven by an increasing level of net interstate migration. SEQ is one the largest urban areas in Australia, with a population of 3.77 million. The region grew by 1.0% in 2020-21, slightly higher than the Queensland figure of 0.9%, and well above the national figure of 0.2%. The fastest growing SA2s in SEQ are in greenfield areas on the urban fringe, the northern part of the Gold Coast, and parts of the Sunshine Coast. Despite the relatively strong growth, there were several SA2s that declined in population, but overall the losses were small in number. Areas of population decline were typically located in established parts of the Brisbane metropolitan area and the Gold Coast.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-25119498730278441592022-04-04T18:26:00.003+10:002022-04-04T18:28:19.293+10:00Population trends for local areas<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The release of the 2021 regional population estimates has been highly anticipated. This is because it shows a full twelve months of COVID-19 influenced population trends, particularly the closure of the international border, at a local level. Previous data released by the ABS, such as changes in internal migration patterns have provided some clues as to what the data will show. Read on to find out more.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>LGAs with strong growth</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The regional estimates are released for a range of geographies, but this blog focuses on local government areas (LGAs). The table below shows the LGAs with the highest volume and percentage growth in 2020-21.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOZ_7HO5-3ne6njTHTBbqIIGRFh-EUh1Wh61xVNK54CSFswhX8Bc9NmpPKUU_pAp4-yzE3vsSj7tmYPsIDYIVwHuCvcNQDkfS327s9vF73JL2HZL0b7IAPbRwqTefIcjMdWUPRqDUQYFQ_p6MNiPtDSON-ZTE4ClE9V1VaLK-htVyFdUXQbhTbq41U/s534/top%20lgas%20erp%20change%202020-21.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="525" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOZ_7HO5-3ne6njTHTBbqIIGRFh-EUh1Wh61xVNK54CSFswhX8Bc9NmpPKUU_pAp4-yzE3vsSj7tmYPsIDYIVwHuCvcNQDkfS327s9vF73JL2HZL0b7IAPbRwqTefIcjMdWUPRqDUQYFQ_p6MNiPtDSON-ZTE4ClE9V1VaLK-htVyFdUXQbhTbq41U/s16000/top%20lgas%20erp%20change%202020-21.png" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The LGAs with the highest volume of growth were located in Queensland, NSW and Victoria. The list was headed by the Gold Coast, with an additional 8,400 residents in 2020-21. This was followed by the Sunshine Coast (7,150) and Moreton Bay (7,070). Regardless, the volume of growth recorded on the Gold Coast was the lowest this century, and corresponded to a 1.3% increase. Gains from internal migration in 2020-21 were similar to the previous year, but net overseas migration (NOM) was negative (-1,620) compared to a gain of 4,970 in 2019-20. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It might surprise people to learn that the City of Brisbane actually recorded a slight decline in population (-158 people). In terms of population size, this is the largest LGA in Australia. Therefore, it regularly features on the list of the LGAs with the highest volume of growth. However, a net loss of almost 9,000 persons through overseas migration was the primary driver behind the decline, and compares to a gain of 10,840 the previous year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Camden, located in outer south-western Sydney, featured on both lists in 2020-21. The LGA grew by more than 6,700 people, and recorded the strongest percentage growth (6.2%) in the country. Overseas migration is less of a driver of growth in this area, instead, internal migration and natural increase are more important. There are a number of greenfield development fronts that cater to young couples and families, and these new residents tend to come from other parts of Sydney. Camden has recorded very strong growth since 2016 (upwards of 6,000 people per annum) and this growth is likely to continue for some time.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Local population</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> trends in Victoria</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">No state or territory was impacted more by COVID-19 than Victoria. Population trends have taken a <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/twelve-months-of-covid-impacts-on.html">complete U-turn</a> in the last two years. Victoria has gone from being the fastest growing state, to one recording population decline. This has been sharply felt in Melbourne, which has experienced COVID-19 related lockdowns and related impacts on employment, enjoyment and movement. In 2020-21, the population of Greater Melbourne declined by 60,500 people (-1.2%), and now stands at 5.1 million. This was driven by negative migration, both from overseas and within Australia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The map below shows the population growth rate by LGA for 2020-21. The bluish shades indicate LGAs that recorded an increase in population in 2020-21, whereas green and grey shades indicate population decline.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3cXWpyfnNn3WGD7zSRi0-oKtmsmEXxx-ZW0AgtVc0sC-0ynrCHAWYcBJ54v1EBrB8TYuaj-acdWFhWMMp9OkkgyF43oXGbyRIrrLzm4fvnnGOOmA-qosdonSk7NDrMHhxf1vBt5H2NaKiEv3rq5ebNO8cOhObO6otqJIe7u7JnPDdZsqy5GawnEfj/s575/vic%20erp%20by%20lga%202020-21.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="575" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3cXWpyfnNn3WGD7zSRi0-oKtmsmEXxx-ZW0AgtVc0sC-0ynrCHAWYcBJ54v1EBrB8TYuaj-acdWFhWMMp9OkkgyF43oXGbyRIrrLzm4fvnnGOOmA-qosdonSk7NDrMHhxf1vBt5H2NaKiEv3rq5ebNO8cOhObO6otqJIe7u7JnPDdZsqy5GawnEfj/s16000/vic%20erp%20by%20lga%202020-21.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Peri-urban areas</b></span></p>The strongest growth rates were recorded in peri-urban LGAs around Melbourne, including Greater Geelong and Surf Coast. The latter recorded the strongest growth rate in Victoria, at 4.4% for the year, representing growth of around 1,500 people. Internal migration explains much of the growth in Surf Coast, with housing opportunities on new estates in Torquay, Jan Juc and Winchelsea. Since 2016-17, gains from internal migration have increased steadily, reaching 1,360 in 2020-21.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Greater Geelong recorded the highest volume of growth in regional Victoria, adding a further 4,730 residents in 2020-21. This represented a growth rate of 1.8%, well above the national average. The volume and rate of growth is lower than the previous two years, due to negative NOM. The recorded stronger growth in recent years is due to new housing estates in suburbs such as Armstrong Creek, as well as relatively affordable housing across the metropolitan area. In general, <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/population-forecasts-in-time-of.html">house prices in Geelong are around 30% lower than metropolitan Melbourne</a>. Good transport links, a diversifying economy and the move to working from home explain much of the recent growth surge in Greater Geelong.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Peri-urban areas around Melbourne were generally growing strongly prior to COVID. We know that migration out of Melbourne has been increasing for some years, and peri-urban areas are an important destination for those seeking a more rural lifestyle and, in some areas, more affordable housing. The Shires of Mitchell, Bass Coast and Baw Baw grew by more than 3% in 2020-21, continuing the strong growth trend recorded in recent years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Melbourne</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">As mentioned above, the population of Greater Melbourne declined by more than 60,000 in 2020-21 and the impacts were felt across the metropolitan area. Several LGAs declined in population by more than 3%, headed by the City of Melbourne (-7.5%, or -13,770 people). Overseas migration has been an important driver of change here, due to its popularity with international students and backpackers. The closure of the international border has impacted these housing markets. For example, in 2018-19, the City of Melbourne recorded NOM of 8,630, declining to 5,230 in 2019-20 (partially impacted by international border closure) and -13,580 in 2020-21 (fully impacted by international border closure). This trend should turn around now that international students are returning to Australia, but at this stage it's difficult to estimate the numbers for LGAs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Inner city LGAs such as Port Phillip and Stonnington, also recorded a sharp decline in population, as did Monash (due to the location of the university), Brimbank and Greater Dandenong. Overall, 24 of the 31 LGAs in Greater Melbourne recorded a decline in population, compared to just two in 2019-20.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Stronger population growth continues on Melbourne's fringe, headed by Melton (3.9%, 6,710 people) and Wyndham (2.3%, 6,490 people). Natural increase and internal migration are more important drivers of population change in these areas, due to their popularity with young couples and families. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Western Victoria</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Not all parts of regional Victoria recorded population growth in 2020-21. <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/current-population-trends-in-victoria.html">Population decline has long been a feature across most of western Victoria</a> and the last year has been no exception. The reasons are well documented, and primarily relate to an older population, as well as out-migration of young people. Yarriambiack recorded population decline of -2.1%, the highest rate this century. Although this amounted to just 136 people, the losses over many years are cumulative and have major impacts on service provision and the economy. Since 2001, the population of Yarriambiack has declined by more than 20%, primarily due to natural decrease and out-migration. The 2021 population is 6,450.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Other LGAs in western Victoria to record population loss include Swan Hill (-1.8%), West Wimmera (1.5%) and Mildura (-1.2%). Mildura's result was the first time the LGA has recorded a decline in population since 1991, and shows the impact of the international border closure on the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-03/nomads-retirees-jobless-bolster-harvest-picker-workforce/13212312">availability of overseas workers</a> for fruit picking and other rural industries. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020-21, the LGA with the highest volume of growth was Gold Coast, followed by Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay. All of these LGAs are located in South East Queensland. However, Camden, located in Sydney's outer southwest, recorded the highest percentage growth (6.2%). This is a continuation of strong growth in recent years driven by internal migration and natural increase.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In contrast to recent years, many LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne declined in population, particularly the City of Melbourne (-7.5%). However LGAs on the fringe continued to record stronger growth. The LGAs in Victoria was the strongest growth rates were located in peri-urban areas around Melbourne, continuing recent trends. The highest rate recorded was Surf Coast (4.4%). However most LGAs in western Victoria declined in population, another continuation of long standing demographic trends associated with an ageing population and out-migration.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-6450713852751374102022-03-23T22:25:00.001+11:002022-08-16T21:58:11.170+10:00Measuring CALD communities with Census data<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I recently attended a seminar that looked at spatial patterns of a particular CALD community in Melbourne. The presenter expressed surprise at the age structure as there were very few children born in this particular country. To me, it was a classic example of "traps for young players" when analysing Census data on CALD communities. They are generally measured by birthplace, ancestry and language, but the size of the community will differ depending on the variable used. With the release of 2021 Census data later this year, it's worthwhile revisiting this topic ahead of time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>CALD communities in Australia</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The latest population estimates produced by the ABS show that in 2020, <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/australias-migrant-communities-in-2020.html">7.6 million people were born overseas</a>, comprising almost 30% of the Australian population. The most common birthplaces were England, India and China. The England born population declined between 2016 and 2020, whereas continued strong migration from India and China saw a strong increase in the number of people born in these countries. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Notably, the Nepalese born population more than doubled between 2016 and 2020. With a population exceeding 130,000, Nepal is now one of the larger CALD communities in Australia. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Of the main overseas born communities, Italy and Greece recorded the largest declines between 2016 and 2020. This reflects an older age structure with mortality, and possibly emigration, outnumbering new migrants from these countries. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Measuring CALD communities</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are a number of ways to measure the size of a CALD community. In Australia, the key source of data is the Census. Questions relating to birthplace, language, ancestry are included on the Census form. I</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">n addition to standard socio-economic variables such as age, labour force status and income, variables such as religion and proficiency in English are also useful in determining the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/australias-african-population-who-are.html">characteristics of CALD communities</a>. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Between Censuses, the ABS estimates the size of CALD communities, incorporating data from the Dept of Home Affairs.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I've written previous blogs that explain the key issues in measuring CALD communities. The size of a community will differ depending on whether you use birthplace, language or ancestry. Importantly, some communities can only be identified using one variable. My blog on the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-maori-population-in-australia.html">characteristics of the Maori community</a> explains why ancestry is the most appropriate variable for that community. I've also looked at the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/australias-african-population-who-are.html">definition of the "African" community</a> and how this might be measured with better insights.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>The Greek community in Australia</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The wave of migration to Australia in the post-war period saw large increases in the number of people born in non-English speaking countries such as Greece. The Greek community is well established in Australia and therefore they provide a great illustration of the differences in the size of the community (and their characteristics) depending on how they're measured. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The Greek born community is an ageing one, with Census data indicating most arrived before 1975. In 2016, there were approximately 93,740 Greek born people in Australia, but <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/birthplace?EndYear=2011&DataType=UR">numbers have been declining for some time</a> as mortality takes hold. In 2020, the median age of the Greek born community was 74.0 years, compared to 37.8 years for the total Australian population. Only the Latvian born community had a higher median age (78.2 years) in 2020.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The graph below shows the difference in the age structure of the Greek community depending on whether it's measured on birthplace, ancestry or language. The population of 93,740 Greek born people is dwarfed by those with Greek ancestry (297,145) and those who speak Greek at home (237,586).</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZVudCj6N_lwqiV9mrUPGwXtoHI5w5llfqbd4PpmIRu8nBJ4Tl5xQjNJrMTS6wuSerEDOKSR86wL0PDiPL4kia94H7Nes3ves6dqqoK2uvmOGY9bV2GxxjIQP7Zo43oZqnuzBger7VBByNsKke4Fo1f3J3vc-isz6TgW4Pn5IcXc24dsv2DMBIzsCm=s608" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="608" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZVudCj6N_lwqiV9mrUPGwXtoHI5w5llfqbd4PpmIRu8nBJ4Tl5xQjNJrMTS6wuSerEDOKSR86wL0PDiPL4kia94H7Nes3ves6dqqoK2uvmOGY9bV2GxxjIQP7Zo43oZqnuzBger7VBByNsKke4Fo1f3J3vc-isz6TgW4Pn5IcXc24dsv2DMBIzsCm=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The older age structure of the Greek born population is clear, with a significant proportion of the population (76%) aged 60 years and over. This includes 8% aged 85 years and over, four times the national figure. In contrast, less than 5% of the Greek born population is aged under 30 years. This is despite 6% of Greek born people arriving in the country since 2006, including a small increase in the mid 2010s coinciding with the debt crisis in that country.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Most of the Greek community are the descendants of those who settled here in the post-war period, hence the far larger number of Greek speakers and people with Greek ancestry. This is a common theme amongst all CALD communities and it's very evident in those that are well established over many decades. Children and grandchildren of original migrants are highly likely to identify with the cultural background of their family and/or speak the language at home. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In contrast to those born in Greece, 22% of Greek speakers and 26% of those with Greek ancestry are aged under 30 years. This is a clear indication of the importance of these other variables in measuring the size of a CALD community. It's definitely not all about where you were born, but particularly in the case of ancestry, what community you identify with.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Concluding comments</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Although the number of Greek born people is declining in number, this is only part of the story. The Greek community continues to be defined by the high number of Greek speakers, and those who claim Greek ancestry. This example is a key reason why different variables need consideration when measuring CALD communities. Other Census variables that offer insights into the characteristics of CALD communities include proficiency in English, year of arrival and religion. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The 2021 Census data is scheduled for release in mid 2022, which will provide updated insights on a range of social indicators.</span></p><p><br /></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-74726433578485283472022-02-23T21:33:00.002+11:002022-02-28T11:42:59.087+11:00Population forecasts in uncertain times<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In the last couple of years I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told that population forecasts are useless because of the impacts brought about by COVID-19. Certainly I've written many blogs that describe the demographic impact of the pandemic, but does this render population forecasts useless? We do live in uncertain times, but I argue that they remain as relevant as ever. Read on to find out why.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Population forecasts, particularly for small geographic areas, are fraught with uncertainty at the best of times. There's a lot of misunderstanding about what they mean. They are not targets, or predictions - they are the modelled outcomes of a set of assumptions about the future direction of the components of demographic change. For example, how many births and deaths? How much migration from overseas and interstate? For small geographic areas, building activity and household formation becomes important. Demographers can only make assumptions based on what is known at the time forecasts are produced. They cannot include implicit assumptions about future economic conditions or even pandemics. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The level of uncertainty is tempered somewhat by the inherent momentum in some demographic variables. For example, the number of births relates to the size of the female population of child-bearing age. Other factors such as access to birth control, population health and workforce participation are also important. The fertility rate indicates the propensity to have children, but the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/12/how-many-babies-australian-fertility.html">number of births can still be high</a> even when the fertility rate declines. The number of births and deaths does not change significantly from year to year and this provides demographers with a degree of certainty when preparing forecast assumptions.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Migration on the other hand is highly volatile. This is because it responds to economic drivers, as well as government policy. A great example is the closure of the international border, which had an immediate impact on the level of overseas migration. In 2020-21, Australia recorded a <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release">net overseas migration (NOM) loss of 88,760 people</a> ie more departures than arrivals. Given the high level of NOM driving population growth in the decade or so beforehand, this was a highly impactful and sudden departure from this trend. The feeling is that it will rebound quickly, as the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021-182464.pdf">2021 Intergenerational Report</a> assumes that NOM will recover to 235,000 people per annum by 2024-25. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Interstate migration trends have also changed considerably in the last two years. Until 2020, Victoria gained population from other states, but the situation has changed dramatically and the state now loses population to other parts of Australia. The volume of interstate migration gain in Queensland has increased, and there have also been increases in Western Australia and South Australia. These trends weren't necessarily a result of the pandemic, but it certainly gave them a boost. For example, net interstate migration gain in Victoria was declining in the years beforehand, but accelerated rapidly from early 2020.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Intrastate migration trends have also shifted considerably. The property market in regional Australia has been turbocharged in the last two years due to increased demand (and possibly less supply). Much of this has been attributed to working from home trends, and how this breaks the nexus between location of home versus employment. The extent to which this is occurring, and its longevity, is still not quantified. The 2021 Census will inform the story somewhat via the question on usual residence 1 year and 5 years ago. Other data, such as that held by councils and other government authorities may also prove useful.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Building activity data is largely overlooked, and this is available for local areas on a frequent basis. The chart below shows building approvals for selected SA2s in the Geelong and Bellarine Peninsula region since 2016. This is one of the regions often cited as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-18/migration-from-cities-to-regional-areas-doubles-during-covid/100839386">a destination for flee changers</a>, but what does the data tells us?</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4AV8eakT-inluSCRplRTsbL2ZmserPeGuwXX9oCIu9OMdxzwgnMqqpBlTV1j2PxdbDRlUs6zDDLHMbYJ7gxqsec8XY8k84MnrxVt6Sb7iokZS8UxJXFIRFUr7m1Hi8htX8e9yRrPCs2lrb-iLul49qmx9-PXCUPTc2MUbD2pyGLA4BC3-eXvRJ_Gc=s615" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="615" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4AV8eakT-inluSCRplRTsbL2ZmserPeGuwXX9oCIu9OMdxzwgnMqqpBlTV1j2PxdbDRlUs6zDDLHMbYJ7gxqsec8XY8k84MnrxVt6Sb7iokZS8UxJXFIRFUr7m1Hi8htX8e9yRrPCs2lrb-iLul49qmx9-PXCUPTc2MUbD2pyGLA4BC3-eXvRJ_Gc=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Since 2016 there have been more than 19,300 building approvals in this region. While not all will become dwellings on the ground, it's still indicative of strong residential construction. The Grovedale and Ocean Grove - Barwon Heads SA2s accounted for almost half of all approvals in this period, with Clifton Springs a distant third. These regions contain new housing estates, such as Armstrong Creek, that are generally attractive to first home buyers. There was a distinct increase in the number of approvals after March 2020. Given current migration trends, it's likely that these are not only from within Geelong itself, but from Melbourne as well. Government incentives to stimulate the building sector as part of COVID-19 recovery strategies would have also influenced this trend.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> This sort of information, and the spatial patterns, informs dwelling assumptions for small area population forecasts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Building approvals tell one part of the story, sales of existing residential properties tell another. The <a href="https://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/business/statistics/article/item/8d01ebfdb936404.aspx">median house price in Greater Geelong</a> has increased rapidly since March 2020, reaching $765,000 in the December 2021 quarter. This is around 30% lower than the median price in metropolitan Melbourne. From a housing affordability perspective, this is a strong attractor, and another important indicator of population change. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Although a lot of houses are being built, and there is a clear demand for regional properties, the question remains - who is living in them and how are they occupied. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">A key question for demographers is how these trends will play out in the future. Although we live in interesting and uncertain times, population forecasts are still a key tool for anyone involved in planning services and infrastructure. Planners need the data to inform their work, so it's important to consider the following:</span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: helvetica;">users should ensure they understand the assumptions underpinning the forecast. Do they reflect reality? What has changed in your local area?</span></li><li><span style="font-family: helvetica;">when were the forecasts prepared? If they predate the pandemic, users should take note of how more recent trends may impact future population, particularly the extent to which overseas migration drives population change. In some situations, frequent updates may be appropriate.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: helvetica;">what timeframe is required for planning purposes? Regardless of the pandemic, longer time frames are less likely to be reliable.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: helvetica;">are there other data available that may inform the assumptions? For small area forecasts, data held by Councils can be an untapped resource. This includes rubbish bin allocations (particularly in new residential areas), and kindergarten enrolments.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: helvetica;">using population scenarios to reflect demographic changes. The Queensland state government forecasts produce high, medium and low <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/issues/2676/qld-government-population-projections-methodology-assumptions-2018-edn.pdf">scenarios</a>, which provides some flexibility with regard an appropriate assumption for a user's needs. </span></li></ul><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Concluding comments</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Despite the uncertainties arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is still enough demographic and other data available to make informed assumptions about future population trends. Some of the shifts we have seen have started to become more of a long term trend, such as the movement of people out of Victoria. The release of the 2021 Census data (from mid 2022) and the 2021 Estimated Resident Population (late March 2022) will further inform the demographic story. This is particularly true for assessing migration trends and household occupancy. Small area population forecasts have not lost their relevance - they remain a critical tool for planning a wide range of services.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-33883233500264272112022-01-17T16:33:00.002+11:002022-01-17T16:34:27.044+11:00Population trends in South Australia<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia's population continues to be influenced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the policy changes implemented to control the spread. Historically, South Australia has grown at a modest rate, and its population has an older age profile. But more recently, the state has recorded small gains from interstate migration. Will this make a difference to the ageing trend? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>What is the population?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At June 2021, the population of South Australia was 1.77 million, an increase of 0.2% over the previous year (2,970 people). This is the lowest volume and rate of growth recorded since the mid-1990s. By way of comparison, South Australia's population growth rate was 1.0% in the twelve months ended June 2020, or 17,600 persons. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Like other states and territories, the closure of the international border has resulted in negative growth via overseas migration.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The graph below shows the components of population change in South Australia since 1982. Overall, overseas migration and natural increase have driven growth in the last 40 or so years. Typically, South Australia loses residents to other parts of Australia when they move interstate. However, net interstate migration loss has diminished since 2016, and became positive (704 people) in 2020-21. This was the first time in 30 years that South Australia has recorded a gain of people through interstate migration. Between 2016 and 2021, the number of people moving to South Australia increased by 25% and in the last two years has been <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/mar-2021#data-download">driven by people aged 45 years and over</a>.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh75FNkmYqQecV2edULwppHoJ36xVlEcG80GBEPyRaABdFNYxpPC0UTs9m484vyA0-g077RH-_giOJg0NEeBcbAQrBt3Vztc-arg43i_s2vw1ahKcie5uAgflNbZcXqJgs7YonlVifx8q57HrTYIjcN0sXXZ_lQVdD_y9AxYWn3Cun-qeFJYntZ30qI=s700" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="700" height="457" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh75FNkmYqQecV2edULwppHoJ36xVlEcG80GBEPyRaABdFNYxpPC0UTs9m484vyA0-g077RH-_giOJg0NEeBcbAQrBt3Vztc-arg43i_s2vw1ahKcie5uAgflNbZcXqJgs7YonlVifx8q57HrTYIjcN0sXXZ_lQVdD_y9AxYWn3Cun-qeFJYntZ30qI=w640-h457" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Net overseas migration (NOM) has been the main driver of population growth in South Australia since the mid 2000s. However the volume has been volatile, with a high of 18,000 in 2008-09. In 2020-21, NOM fell into negative territory (-3,280 persons) due to the closure of the international border.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The volume of natural increase has generally trended downward over the last 40 years, save for a brief increase in the decade after 2005. This corresponded with the sharp increase in NOM, and as a result, the number of births increased in line with an increased population of younger people. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">However, the number of deaths in South Australia has increased steadily over the last 40 years. This is due to an ageing population - in fact, South Australia is one of two states to have <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population-age-and-sex/2020">a median age exceeding 40 years</a> (the other is Tasmania). Most deaths occur at the upper end of the age spectrum, so as the population of older people increases, a corresponding increase in the number of deaths tends to follow. In terms of population change, the result has been a gradual decline in the volume of natural increase. In 2018-19 and 2019-20, natural increase dropped below 5,000 for the first time in several decades. However it increased to 5,540 in 2020-21 but it remains to be seen if this is sustained.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>South Australia's changing age structure</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The graph below shows how the age structure has changed over the last 40 years. Between 1980 and 2020, the population of South Australia grew by about one-third, from 1.31 - 1.77 million. At the same time, the population aged significantly over this 40 year period. The population aged 50 years and over doubled, and comprised 38.1% of the population in 2020, compared to 25.6% in 1980. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWsVmyoU5GkC9APClMH6nfqkpPbH4SNOsK06lq7SGgvgUBiedeM2VatYWttBlHsFlPm4wY5Mv5jSRvA49WXMcX4RQ8jlsdAd8Bw4LoW1YJ3KMeI7ZLThQ0kvT9JYo7yXFZkSsa2qHVAGzswHrJ5QZ22scrgAHyEuNSf6dNn6V3moFJxQuOcmpeE7MM=s629" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="629" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWsVmyoU5GkC9APClMH6nfqkpPbH4SNOsK06lq7SGgvgUBiedeM2VatYWttBlHsFlPm4wY5Mv5jSRvA49WXMcX4RQ8jlsdAd8Bw4LoW1YJ3KMeI7ZLThQ0kvT9JYo7yXFZkSsa2qHVAGzswHrJ5QZ22scrgAHyEuNSf6dNn6V3moFJxQuOcmpeE7MM=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Of course, the 50+ population is diverse in terms of generations, life stage and health status. Census data shows that <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/age-is-just-number-but-important-one.html">people aged 75 years and over are more likely to have a disability</a> that requires assistance with core activities. As such, this cohort has a stronger impact on the health system and associated services. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In South Australia, the 75+ population has more than tripled since 1980, and now numbers more than 150,000. This cohort was born 1945 and earlier, and so don't include the baby boomer generation - yet. The graph above shows that this generation, aged roughly 55-74 years in 2020, are relatively large in number. As a result, their movement through the age spectrum will further contribute to the ageing of the population in the short to medium term.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In contrast, the population of younger people has declined since 1980, though there are some conflicting trends. This is a result of lower fertility as well as out migration of younger people. As a group, the population of people aged under 25 years declined slightly (-4%) between 1980 and 2020. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">However, most of this loss occurred between 1980 and 2000, when the population of this cohort fell to 488,180 persons. Since 2000, the population of under 25s has increased to 526,370. An increase in overseas migration has resulted in a 20% increase in the population of 20-24 year olds, many of whom are international students. Overseas migration has also increased the number of women in family forming age groups who are permanent arrivals, and as a result the population of children and young teenagers has increased. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Overall however, despite increased gains in population via migration, the older population structure and the momentum behind this will continue to drive demographic change in South Australia. Young people comprise a smaller proportion of the population compared to 40 years ago, and there has been a corresponding increase in the proportion of older people. The median age continues to creep upwards, reaching 40.3 years in 2020. Although there have been small gains via interstate migration in the last year, this appears to be driven by people aged 45 years and over rather than young adults. This will only contribute to further ageing of the population. Whether this is mitigated by a resumption of overseas migration remains to be seen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">South Australia has one of the older age profiles in Australia, as indicated by its median age and high proportion of older people in the population. Between 1980 and 2020, the population grew by about one-third, but the increase in the older population was stronger. People aged 50+ doubled in number over the 40 year period. In contrast, there was a decline in the number of people aged under 25 years. The large cohort of baby boomers will contribute to further population ageing in the future, and despite the increase in interstate and overseas migration, this trend is unlikely to change.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-7154526425681607752021-12-20T10:52:00.002+11:002022-08-16T21:59:06.664+10:00How many babies? Australian fertility trends in 2020<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Each year the ABS releases data on the number of birth and death registrations across Australia. The data is important as it provides indicators of population change at the local level. Fertility trends differ widely across metropolitan and rural areas. What were the key trends in 2020?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How many births were there in 2020?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020, there were <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release">294,369 births</a> registered in Australia. This was a 3.7% decline on the 305,832 births registered in 2019. The 2020 figure was the first time since 2014 that registered births did not exceed 300,000. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2020 was the lowest on record, at just 1.58 babies per woman, down from 1.66 in 2019. However there is considerable variation across the country. The highest rate was recorded in the Northern Territory (1.86) and the lowest in Victoria (1.43). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The decline in birth numbers and fertility may surprise some readers. There was speculation that COVID-19 lockdowns would create an environment for more births, and some hospitals were indicating an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/06/is-there-a-covid-baby-boom-experts-disagree-but-australias-maternity-wards-are-straining">increase in demand for maternity services</a>. However history tells us that in times of economic and social uncertainty, birth rates tend to decline. Moreover, the fertility rate recorded in 2020 is a continuation of a downward trend that has occurred since a 21st century high of 2.02 was recorded in 2008.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The lower number of births in 2020 should be viewed in a wider context to provide a better perspective. The chart below shows the number of births registered each year since 1970. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Declining fertility rates indicate changes in the propensity of women to have children, but the actual number of children is critical from a planning perspective. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Birth registrations were relatively high in the early 1970s, but declined throughout the decade to reach a low of 223,129 in 1979. This is the lowest number of registrations recorded in the last 50 years. The TFR fell below replacement level in 1976, and has remained there since. There was a small increase in the 2000s, and the TFR almost approached replacement level in 2008 (2.02). This corresponded with an increase in birth numbers, but this was driven by higher levels of overseas migration which increased the size of the female population in family forming age groups. B</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Despite the decline in birth registrations in 2020, the total number is still historically high. Furthermore, it's only been two years since a record number of registrations were recorded and all these children are yet to hit the school education system. Depending on migration patterns and local variations in the fertility rate, this will be important for the planning of schools, facilities and teaching staff.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdGACx5Q8Up2YoESWpslu_sRSjEjq6Ha_TgbkgxubAznXtBlTdkT6ga3ngzjSmE5Sh0iywwhN-IktlN7UDCjODS6vTW0iL_HwXs_E4c2B94m_-wgIUrVSU5niu9TN70g-u1M0E5_p1OY4_3J665aKwPsxccwLMDSPALsQ36KvGsQQXRCp4YnJjKuSd=s780" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="780" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdGACx5Q8Up2YoESWpslu_sRSjEjq6Ha_TgbkgxubAznXtBlTdkT6ga3ngzjSmE5Sh0iywwhN-IktlN7UDCjODS6vTW0iL_HwXs_E4c2B94m_-wgIUrVSU5niu9TN70g-u1M0E5_p1OY4_3J665aKwPsxccwLMDSPALsQ36KvGsQQXRCp4YnJjKuSd=w640-h402" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;">Fertility trends in Victoria</b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">As noted above, Victoria recorded a fertility rate of just 1.43 in 2020, the lowest of all states and territories. There were 73,543 births registered in Victoria, the lowest number since 2015. This is not necessarily a COVID-19 related trend, as Victoria often records the lowest TFR in the country. The ACT (1.53) and South Australia (1.59) also have low fertility rates.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Despite the low TFR, there is considerable spatial variations in the rate. The 2020 TFRs for each LGA are shown in the map below. Higher TFRs do not necessarily equal a high number of births as it reflects propensity and the size of the female population.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNpX09q_pL_mE2ecftUzcPKX_rYtKJJ2Z0dlbkRZ7lNBhFfn4BwNxUvqIYNFG-2M8hyy6fmm2oB4T-GWvZ728_39QgctMWAYXBgmjEqs7WaZdv8UF32KpNF4lCiiIV9OpOrFYep9b6v_MGFLO_1zA2u5f8dVLl71WzCWRD722nzlMbFYtBTJh2VtZ_=s841" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="841" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNpX09q_pL_mE2ecftUzcPKX_rYtKJJ2Z0dlbkRZ7lNBhFfn4BwNxUvqIYNFG-2M8hyy6fmm2oB4T-GWvZ728_39QgctMWAYXBgmjEqs7WaZdv8UF32KpNF4lCiiIV9OpOrFYep9b6v_MGFLO_1zA2u5f8dVLl71WzCWRD722nzlMbFYtBTJh2VtZ_=w640-h472" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There were 16 LGAs with a TFR above the replacement level of 2.1, and all were located in regional Victoria. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The highest TFRs are located in western Victoria, as well as Towong Shire in the northeast. In 2020, the highest TFR was recorded in West Wimmera (3.06), followed by Buloke (2.65) and Loddon (2.61). However these are rural areas with small towns, and the total number of births across these three LGAs was just 172. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The TFR in West Wimmera has been increasing since 2014, and there has been a corresponding general increase in the number of births. However this is an LGA with a small and declining population. The TFR of 3.06 corresponds to 55 births, and at the same time there were 40 deaths registered. In other words, natural increase is very modest, and other <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2019-20#data-download">ABS data shows</a> that levels of out migration exceed this, hence resulting in a declining population.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The lowest TFRs were found in metropolitan Melbourne. There were four LGAs, all in the inner city, which recorded a TFR less than 1.0. These were Melbourne (0.68), Stonnington (0.9), Yarra (0.95) and Port Phillip (0.95). At this level, fertility is so low that not even one parent is replaced. Typically, these LGAs have young populations, such as university students who are renting, and therefore are not yet in the family forming stage of life. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In general the TFR increases with increasing distance from the CBD. The TFR in the eastern suburbs, inner north and west is under 1.4, but the highest rates are located in LGAs with new greenfield areas on the urban fringe. These typically attract young and prospective families, ie people with a higher propensity to have children.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Wyndham, on the western outskirts, recorded the highest TFR in metropolitan Melbourne (2.04), which is slightly below replacement level. Although the TFR was the lowest recorded in the last ten years, the number of births (4,850) is one of the highest on record. More than 4,800 births have been registered in Wyndham each year since 2018. This is one area of Melbourne where the provision of new childcare and schools are critical to support a growing population. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There were 294,369 births registrations in Australia in 2020, resulting in a TFR of 1.58. This was the lowest on record and a continuation of trends observed in the last decade. Victoria's TFR of 1.43 was the lowest in the country, but it masks considerable variation across the state. LGAs in western Victoria had the highest TFRs, and they were lowest in metropolitan Melbourne. The TFR is just one side of the story - still important to look at the numbers to get a complete picture and to inform service planning.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-49398139449485891772021-11-15T14:03:00.001+11:002021-11-15T14:04:33.100+11:00How do demographic trends in Australia compare with other countries?<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">We are very lucky in Australia that we have access to a wide range of quality data that informs the characteristics of our population. But how do we compare internationally? In this blog I compare Australia's demographic characteristics with all other countries in the world. This is spatial analysis on a global scale!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>International statistics</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The statistics compiled for this blog are sourced from the United Nations Population Division. They collect data from statistical agencies around the world and release it periodically. While this does allow analysis for comparative purposes, readers should note that not all statistical agencies are made equally, nor are standards uniform across the world. There may also be some issues with regards timeliness, and in fact, most of the 2020 figures presented here are estimates based on recent trends. However for the purpose of this blog, the data passes the pub test.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In all charts, 201 countries are represented, and Australia is shown in <span style="color: #5aa35c;">green</span>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Median age</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The chart below shows the median age for all countries in the world in 2020. The median age depicts the point at which half the population is younger, and the other half older. It's considered a more accurate measure than the average, which can be skewed by outliers.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi25d2uK3-aekgT1ct_75T0f2DSCPH8tLEdsN61DdeF-aGioHAe-lAWa2psvQZhDarctKsB--9PnzBqECYBxKNYfUM5BucjRtxA0gzGFZSoCA-37rQ4yCb5mAJ9bN8IdfB3fG0hHnn1eE7Qar0AzhxoWZ0W8cAkft3kqRRphe-au6DwT3iMczjlqZ6m=s623" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="623" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi25d2uK3-aekgT1ct_75T0f2DSCPH8tLEdsN61DdeF-aGioHAe-lAWa2psvQZhDarctKsB--9PnzBqECYBxKNYfUM5BucjRtxA0gzGFZSoCA-37rQ4yCb5mAJ9bN8IdfB3fG0hHnn1eE7Qar0AzhxoWZ0W8cAkft3kqRRphe-au6DwT3iMczjlqZ6m=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The youngest population was reported in Niger (15.2 years) and the oldest was Japan (48.4 years). The population ageing issues in Japan were discussed in <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/australia-and-japan-demographic.html">a blog I wrote in 2019</a>. Australia's median age in 2020 was 37.9 years, ranking 58th, just behind New Zealand (38.0 years). This places Australia in the second quartile.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There were more than 30 countries where the median age was less than 20 years, the majority of which are in Africa. At the other end of the scale, more than 40 countries had a median age of more than 40 years. Most of these were in Europe, with a handful in the Caribbean and Asia. In some Caribbean countries, the median age has more than doubled in 50 years. For example, Martinique had a median age of 19.7 years in 1970, increasing sharply to 47.3 years in 2020, ranking third on a global scale. The main reason was a sharp decline in the fertility rate in the last decades of the twentieth century, coupled with high levels of out-migration of young adults.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Life expectancy</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, reflecting a good health system and low infant mortality. In 2019, life expectancy was 83.4 years, placing us <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/life-tables/2018-2020#international-comparison">sixth in the world</a>. The United Nations data for 2015-2020, as shown in the graph below, indicates life expectancy of 83.2 years in Australia. This results in a ranking of eighth in the world and easily in the first quartile. There are three countries where life expectancy exceeds 84 years - Hong Kong, Japan and Macao.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh9MfvekvO9-UlmWP6cg0Equ9Wo3d75bXEg1BG9hbHofvDkZmgtkJ0PWqJH5TqJswwS4nl62VaI_ITfi4qDs66oTgy46yF3cG8Q7JDSCU97qExRSw3aCNnGeN8qe987u8ninALadfQZJTroNhKK6oYHHbgE9enn10DlY7r2is_k3BGwUqnpf05R_ket=s619" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="619" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh9MfvekvO9-UlmWP6cg0Equ9Wo3d75bXEg1BG9hbHofvDkZmgtkJ0PWqJH5TqJswwS4nl62VaI_ITfi4qDs66oTgy46yF3cG8Q7JDSCU97qExRSw3aCNnGeN8qe987u8ninALadfQZJTroNhKK6oYHHbgE9enn10DlY7r2is_k3BGwUqnpf05R_ket=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At the other end of the scale, the Central African Republic has the lowest life expectancy of all countries, at just 52.7 years. There are 13 countries with a life expectancy below 60 years, all of which are located in Africa. In fact, most African countries are in the lowest quartile in terms of the life expectancy ranking. However there are a handful of countries located elsewhere in this group, including our close neighbour, Papua New Guinea (64.2 years). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Life expectancy has increased in all countries over the last 50 years. Australia's life expectancy increased by about 12 years compared to 1965-70. Many countries far exceeded this, particularly those where major improvements to health and quality of life have been made in more recent years. For instance, life expectancy in the Maldives has increased by 36 years since 1965-70, reaching 78.47 years in 2015-20. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In contrast, countries in eastern Europe recorded minimal increases in life expectancy over the last 50 years. Notably, Ukraine and Russia recorded a decline between 1965-70 and 1995-2000, but have increased marginally since. Economic upheaval, and declining health standards epitomised by <a href="https://blog.id.com.au/2013/id-news/fun-stuff/an-australian-in-russia-thoughts-and-observations/">high rates of smoking and alcohol consumption</a>, are thought to be responsible for the decline. This is still a problem in Russia, especially amongst males, but health measures implemented in recent years seem to have contributed to the recent increase.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Fertility rate</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The fertility rate is shown in the chart below. The African country of Niger was at the extreme end of the rankings again, with the highest fertility rate of 6.95. That's right - almost 7 babies per woman. That's a lot of children, and a primary reason why their median age is the lowest in the world. Niger's fertility rate has seen little change in 50 years - in 1965-1970 the rate was 7.55, before increasing slightly to 7.7 in 1995-2000. Only one other country recorded a fertility rate in excess of 6.0 in 2015-2020, and that was Somalia (6.12).</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgkl-7Jj5ZvSKlxnhdDBF9TS4fwMdlE3LgZxbhkrpe5X_n93Eb3OtpHWueyxu-yLVpwIg3NJdpBS4f5tt9prmBhTE-aL7kSt2AyhKJDjMHZrs-ahiVQaIkTR2GNK99EEz8oLnaJj4qD4Gp6xOMXCRZQKxG6hdNXtsUb9c3MWB2FsxTSl2xPffXEvRDq=s624" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgkl-7Jj5ZvSKlxnhdDBF9TS4fwMdlE3LgZxbhkrpe5X_n93Eb3OtpHWueyxu-yLVpwIg3NJdpBS4f5tt9prmBhTE-aL7kSt2AyhKJDjMHZrs-ahiVQaIkTR2GNK99EEz8oLnaJj4qD4Gp6xOMXCRZQKxG6hdNXtsUb9c3MWB2FsxTSl2xPffXEvRDq=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At the other end of the scale, South Korea recorded the lowest fertility rate in 2015-2020 (1.11). This is a marked change from 1965-70, when the rate recorded was 4.65. However by the end of the century, it was well below replacement level (1.50).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are almost 80 countries where the fertility rate is below replacement level. These countries are scattered across the world, but the lowest rates are recorded in parts of Asia and eastern Europe. Three countries (Hungary, Czechia and Latvia) have recorded below replacement fertility since 1965-70, whereas other countries recorded very large declines. The most famous example is China, where the fertility rate was more than 6.0 in 1965-70. The implementation of the "one child policy" led to a large decline in the fertility rate, such that by 1995-2000 it was 1.62. The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57303592">one child policy was abolished in 2013</a>, but there has only been a small increase in the fertility rate since (1.69 in 2015-2020).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia's fertility rate was 1.83, ranked 63rd in the world (second quartile). This was a slight increase on the 1995-2000 figure of 1.79, but a marked decline from the 2.87 recorded in 1965-1970. This was a period in Australian history when a high fertility rate was recorded, before it declined rapidly in the 1970s.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Older people</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The proportion of people aged 65 years and over varies widely across the world. It is influenced by life expectancy, death rates (including the cause of death), and migration. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In total there are 22 countries where more than 20% of the population are aged 65 years and over. As mentioned above, Japan has the highest median age, so unsurprisingly also h</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">as the highest proportion of older people (28.4%). This proportion is far ahead of second-placed Italy (23.3%). Population ageing in Japan is reinforced by other demographic trends such as a low fertility rate and limited overseas migration. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHWxaPuQcrxQ5ii0EOXAM2JIg39Y4Yjtb9rNRMrzVDJt0FbLluvdu5vVlaYFfY4TdTvjTNxV0RDh2zDJHb4e7Ul9ZkhwSpFgh4i1r5cxWE5Z2pLhZBCgDDqxs3-YaxcEgg1FZ6Rn3kIje56FKVV6oTJZRDBorUST9Gj70yuOe1brYPaKzkDCjoqfpy=s634" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHWxaPuQcrxQ5ii0EOXAM2JIg39Y4Yjtb9rNRMrzVDJt0FbLluvdu5vVlaYFfY4TdTvjTNxV0RDh2zDJHb4e7Ul9ZkhwSpFgh4i1r5cxWE5Z2pLhZBCgDDqxs3-YaxcEgg1FZ6Rn3kIje56FKVV6oTJZRDBorUST9Gj70yuOe1brYPaKzkDCjoqfpy=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At the other end of the scale, just 1.3% of the population in the United Arab Emirates are aged 65 years and over, closely followed by Qatar (1.7%). Both of these countries are characterised by a large expatriate workforce and associated high levels of overseas migration. As such more than half of the population are aged 25-44 years. The overwhelming majority of countries with less than 3% of older people in the population are located in Africa and the Middle East, but the drivers are different. Many African countries are characterised by high fertility rates (resulting in more children), but low life expectancy means that few people even reach the age of 65 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Older people comprise 16.2% of the population in Australia, ranking us 43rd in the world (second quartile). New Zealand has a similar proportion of older people in its population (16.4%). In Australia, the proportion of older people has doubled since 1970.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Comparing the demographic characteristics of Australia to the rest of the world puts our situation in perspective. Australia has one of the highest life expectancy figures in the world, ranking 8th globally (first quartile). On other measures, Australia ranks 58th on median age (second quartile), 139th on the fertility rate (third quartile) and 43rd on the proportion of older people (second quartile).</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-24865577648125865152021-10-27T17:11:00.003+11:002021-10-27T17:11:58.648+11:00Building approval trends in NSW<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Much has been written in the last 18 months about the increasing population in regional Australia. The driver of this has been attributed to COVID-19 influenced migration (so called "flee changers"). This is despite the fact that the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/are-people-leaving-sydney-and-melbourne.html">number of people moving out of Sydney and Melbourne</a> has been increasing for some years, ie it predates the pandemic. This blog looks at residential building approvals data, concentrating on NSW, and its relationship to population change in regional areas. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>How many dwellings are approved in Australia?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Data on the number of residential building approvals made by Councils and other planning authorities across Australia are collated and published by the ABS. Not all approvals end up as a completed dwelling on the ground, and some approvals are replacing existing dwellings. Nevertheless, it is an indicator of the demand for new dwellings and also influences economic activity in the construction sector and other related industries.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020-21 there were 221,070 approvals in Australia, an increase of 27% over the previous year (173,660). This was still lower than the 232,200 approvals recorded in 2017-18, one of the highest numbers on record. The higher figure in 2020-21 has been influenced by <a href="https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/homebuilder-grant-guidelines">government incentives to support the construction industry</a> as part of the economic recovery from COVID-19.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020-21, Victoria recorded the largest number of approvals (67,690), comprising 30.6% of the total. This is far higher than the state's share of population, and occurred despite <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/twelve-months-of-covid-impacts-on.html">negative population growth</a>. It reflects ongoing demand, household formation trends, and stronger growth in outer suburban areas of Melbourne.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">By comparison, NSW recorded 59,960 approvals in 2020-21 (27.1%), followed by Queensland (41,950 or 19% of the total). Notably, the number of approvals in Western Australia almost doubled in 2020-21 compared to the previous year, reflective of a <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/population-growth-increases-in-western.html">new wave of population growth</a> and demand for new housing.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Capital cities and regional areas</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In recent years, there has been a net flow of persons out of Sydney to other parts of NSW, with a similar trend evident in Victoria. <span style="line-height: 107%;">Many
commentators have attributed this trend to the pandemic, suggesting that people
want more space, and that working from home has allowed more freedom regarding
residential vs office location</span>. However these migration trends were occurring before COVID, suggesting that other factors are at play.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The table below shows the proportion of approvals recorded in the Greater capital city regions (GSCCAs) and the rest of the state since 2017-18. I</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">n many states, the share of approvals in the GSCCA declined over this time period. The notable exception was Western Australia, where Greater Perth accounted for around 85% of approvals across the four years.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhjDyPZxnM8EEJxQAK2JS6alstnwL-DsKdq-DVSdPEZUgoHK3gBcMP3SXXMYJa3zyjuVze-WFEJsktsb7kBwiH7LrFe3NG1_KdN8E0tgsYLA7tVIgODaqOW48vUnPS2-1AlXlmp8Og57WEkmxEdaDwFQjTy90L3_Q-CXiDfvCxt7ek__L9sJFEopc5M=s439" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhjDyPZxnM8EEJxQAK2JS6alstnwL-DsKdq-DVSdPEZUgoHK3gBcMP3SXXMYJa3zyjuVze-WFEJsktsb7kBwiH7LrFe3NG1_KdN8E0tgsYLA7tVIgODaqOW48vUnPS2-1AlXlmp8Og57WEkmxEdaDwFQjTy90L3_Q-CXiDfvCxt7ek__L9sJFEopc5M=s16000" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /><span><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The biggest shift was recorded in Victoria. In 2017-18, 83.4% of approvals were located in Greater Melbourne, but the equivalent figure in 2020-21 was 73.3% - just over 10 percentage points difference. NSW and Tasmania also recorded a shift in approvals away from the state capital of around 6 percentage points over the same time period. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Trends in NSW</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The number of building approvals varies considerably from year to year and responds to a number of factors. Since the early 1980s, the number of approvals in NSW has averaged around 46,000 per annum. The peak number of approvals was recorded i</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">n 2015-16 (73,490), <span style="line-height: 107%;">with
a similar number in the subsequent two years</span>. However between 2005-06 and 2011-12 the number of approvals was below 40,000 each year, and reached a low of just 24,900 in 2008-09. These trends have not necessarily matched population growth, especially in the last 15 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The maps below show the number of approvals in each SA4 over the last four years. <span style="line-height: 107%;">They
show that SA4s in western Sydney record the highest number of approvals, which
corresponds with the major growth corridors</span>. In the last two years, Greater Sydney has accounted for just under 70% of approvals in NSW. This compares with 76.1% in 2017-18, but this was a year in which the number of approvals across the country was one of the highest on record. Nevertheless, this shift indicates greater demand occurring in regional NSW.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020-21, the SA4 with the most approvals was Sydney - Blacktown (6,695), followed by Sydney - Parramatta (5,335) and Sydney - South West (5,164). These SA4s have accounted for an increasing share of approvals in Greater Sydney over the last four years, reaching 41.1% in 2020-21. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqEqCAwANZozRPEBzzAaZTkdyrUg052TJ1Qm4jwdTrhN_8R7gbQrDQqXLCT0O1n3-5IjsGnSaOd6Y3PNy1cqViyzWyUHzyysFsvM9QIdVB1bWOcxZmDBV-JuPG7E2qjcIC1G8f383_XgNUdrTfDNASilp3lPfyE-Z1TykrF_2mAXGRL6cK2Z3AOFrt=s1563" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1311" data-original-width="1563" height="536" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqEqCAwANZozRPEBzzAaZTkdyrUg052TJ1Qm4jwdTrhN_8R7gbQrDQqXLCT0O1n3-5IjsGnSaOd6Y3PNy1cqViyzWyUHzyysFsvM9QIdVB1bWOcxZmDBV-JuPG7E2qjcIC1G8f383_XgNUdrTfDNASilp3lPfyE-Z1TykrF_2mAXGRL6cK2Z3AOFrt=w640-h536" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The number of approvals in regional NSW has generally increased over the last four years, reaching 18,080 in 2020-21. There has been little change to the spatial pattern over this time. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The majority of SA4s in regional NSW recorded an increase in the number of approvals in 2020-21 compared to the previous year. The exception was Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, where approvals declined by 13%. Regardless, a total of 2,493 approvals were recorded, one of the highest in regional NSW. Hunter Valley exc Newcastle recorded 2,983 approvals, and Illawarra 2,462. That the highest number of approvals were recorded in the largest regional centres is unsurprising. <span style="line-height: 107%;">The
key locations within these SA4s are growth areas, suggesting that this demand
is part of the outward expansion of urban areas.</span>.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">For example, Hunter Valley exc Newcastle includes larger towns such as Maitland, Cessnock and Kurri Kurri which offer relatively affordable housing and employment opportunities. These towns, and their surrounds, accounted for three-quarters of approvals in 2020-21. The SA2 of Branxton - Greta - Pokolbin is another hotspot for approvals, most of which are located in and around Branxton. There is also considerable growth in the Port Stephens area north of Newcastle, particularly in the <a href="https://www.portstephens.nsw.gov.au/grow/port-stephens-planning-strategies/port-stephens-local-strategic-planning-statement">emerging strategic centre of Medowie</a>. The SA2 of Williamtown - Medowie - Karuah recorded 380 approvals in 2020-21, more than the previous three years combined.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020-21, </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Far West and Orana recorded the largest increase (80%), albeit this was from a small base and amounted to 515 approvals. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Most of these were located in Dubbo, and represent growth in new estates - similar to the trends described above. It's a similar story in Murray (most approvals in Albury), New England and North West (most approvals in Tamworth), and Coffs Harbour - Grafton, where approvals were more evenly spread across a number of locations. These SA4s all recorded an increase in approvals of about 50% over the 2019-20 figure.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Implications for population growth</b><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The evidence from NSW suggests that most growth is in regional centres and represents an expansion of their urban area. An increase in the number of dwellings will generally result in an increasing population. <span style="line-height: 107%;">However,
there are other challenges such as housing and land supply, water and sewerage
infrastructure and environmental factors that may place constraints on large
scale development. It's interesting that some of the media commentary </span>regarding flee-changing suggests that people are moving to quaint little towns in regional areas, but the reality is that most of the existing, and new dwelling stock is in larger towns.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It's also important to consider the role of residential property sales, ie turnover of the existing stock. All things being equal, population change will be modest unless the housing turnover is accompanied by shifts in household size (eg families replacing couples) and/or occupancy rates. An example of the latter is locations with a high number of unoccupied dwellings. If they are sold and then occupied permanently, then this will increase the population. For many years, demographers have assumed a reduction in unoccupied dwellings in coastal areas, particularly as baby boomers retire. However this is not generally supported by the available data - holiday locations with high amenity are still more likely to have a high proportion of unoccupied dwellings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The share of residential building approvals in regional NSW has increased over the last four years, reaching 30.1% in 2020-21. This is in line with the ongoing migration of people out of Sydney over many years. Increases in the number of approvals have occurred across most of the state. The highest numbers are located in regional centres are a continuation of the outward growth of the urban areas. The ongoing release of population data from the ABS, including the 2021 Census, will provide an updated evidence base upon which to assess the "flee change" phenomenon.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p></div></div>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-28241719709137843662021-10-12T18:23:00.001+11:002021-10-12T18:24:19.742+11:00What's happened to Australia's young adults?<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It goes without saying that the impacts of COVID on population change have been profound. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Not only has Australia recorded a net loss of overseas migrants but there have been changes in the age structure as a result. In 2019-20, the population of young adults in Australia declined. This blog looks at the scale of this trend and where the impact has been felt more strongly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Australia's young adults</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">For the purposes of this blog, young adults are defined as those persons aged 15-24 years. This is a diverse cohort, covering a number of life stages. This includes the transition from school to higher education and/or career, and moving out of the family home. They are a highly mobile cohort who move address more frequently.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At June 2020, there were 3.204 million young adults in Australia, comprising 12.5% of the population. However, this was a decline of 44,580 over the previous year (-1.4%). All states and territories except for Western Australia recorded a loss of young adults. The decline was more pronounced in the eastern states. NSW recorded a loss of 19,570 young adults (-1.9%), followed by Victoria (-17,390 or 2.0%). There was a sharper decline of 3.7% in the ACT, but this amounted to a loss of 2,150 young adults.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">From a historical perspective, a decline in the young adult population is unusual. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Changes in the population of young adults are influenced by migration trends, as well as ageing in place ie the momentum of cohorts ageing over time. NOM has driven population growth in Australia in recent years, and </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">young adults comprise a significant proportion of the net flow. The last time the young adult population declined was during the 1990s, and prior to that, in the decade following WW2. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The closure of Australia's international border has created the conditions for a decline in the young adult population. </span><a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/twelve-months-of-covid-impacts-on.html" style="font-family: helvetica;">Recent population data</a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> shows that Australia recorded a net overseas migration (NOM) loss for the year ended March 2021. The chart below shows the net overseas migration gain by age for the last three calendar years. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXWyjlymOTgpOyQ3UGBToguIApsfXj5pB7yR74n68RMFuEihHaLYxPg82WQXmUrWMD0PbP_R8F2-p05gQfbh0_tBcatL-wKqZf3YL-E8aFxplRO9TT4Zg9A_zptQjcM1Gc_s-dYuG3UbNh8nKQIV9-8nXEsFhzkhxZay8qnYJOQazAOUDCiAcAy-37=s660" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="660" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXWyjlymOTgpOyQ3UGBToguIApsfXj5pB7yR74n68RMFuEihHaLYxPg82WQXmUrWMD0PbP_R8F2-p05gQfbh0_tBcatL-wKqZf3YL-E8aFxplRO9TT4Zg9A_zptQjcM1Gc_s-dYuG3UbNh8nKQIV9-8nXEsFhzkhxZay8qnYJOQazAOUDCiAcAy-37=s16000" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The change in 2020 compared to previous years provides a clear indication as to the impact of the international border closure and other COVID-19 related restrictions. In 2020, NOM was just 3,250 persons, a far cry from the 247,620 recorded in 2019. All population cohorts recorded a significant decline in the volume of NOM. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">However there was a net loss of people aged 20-34 ie more people in this age group left Australia than arrived. Persons aged 25-29 years recorded the largest loss of more than 20,000, compared to a net gain of 30,750 in 2019. With regards young adults, 15-19 year olds recorded a net gain of 7,980 persons, but the larger loss of 20-24 year olds (-14,830) meant that the net loss of young adults was -6,850 in 2020.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The net loss of young adults is significant for a number of reasons. Economically, it impacts on the labour market and the education sector (particularly universities). Demographically, it may result in fewer births due to the lower number of females in this cohort. Young adults have a high level of household mobility, and in turn this impacts the housing market, as well as migration patterns.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In terms of the university sector, many international students have been unable to enter the country, and others have left as they are not eligible for financial support from the Australian government. Face to face learning was curtailed in 2020 as a measure to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2020, there was a net loss of almost 16,000 persons with a higher education temporary visa, compared to a gain of 35,110 in 2019. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Young adults in NSW</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">NSW recorded the largest decline in the number of young adults in 2019-20 (-19,570, or 1.9%). The overwhelming majority of this loss was recorded in the Greater Sydney region. The map below shows the change in the population of young adults. Green shades indicate LGA where the number of young adults declined, whereas purple shows LGAs that recorded an increase.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhfSFarxX38ZalCNzpIVVQ0SaJqvg1bl53_ZsZNk9Xf1aAl0HEDWlyvfh72ldSNUwj3bRWtwOOoxbcWelJ8DbEsUQLP-AoqtDIh0Ikvq22f5JwfFWLhwMYOr6ZWgBLpfW_fqHVkG_lrnxgXVgHg5-Fvk6oU1abnGuVYn3U8DBhVQYAPOVgySFytYUNR=s820" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="820" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhfSFarxX38ZalCNzpIVVQ0SaJqvg1bl53_ZsZNk9Xf1aAl0HEDWlyvfh72ldSNUwj3bRWtwOOoxbcWelJ8DbEsUQLP-AoqtDIh0Ikvq22f5JwfFWLhwMYOr6ZWgBLpfW_fqHVkG_lrnxgXVgHg5-Fvk6oU1abnGuVYn3U8DBhVQYAPOVgySFytYUNR=w640-h512" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Most LGAs in Greater Sydney recorded a decline in the number of young adults in the twelve months ended June 2020. There were eight LGAs where this exceeded 1,000 persons. Most of these were in a band from the inner south across to the outer west. The City of Sydney recorded the highest loss (-3,682), followed by Cumberland (-2,004) and Canterbury-Bankstown (-1,505). In the case of the City of Sydney, the 8.5% decline ended almost a decade of strong growth in the young adult population. The decline in 2020 is l</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">ikely to be a result of the international border closure and a subsequent </span><a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/where-do-international-students-live.html" style="font-family: helvetica;">decline in the number of international students</a><span style="font-family: helvetica;">. Domestic students have also had their studies interrupted by lockdowns which may also have had an impact on population numbers. An example of this is students from regional areas that may normally move to Greater Sydney, but restrictions on face to face learning may have encouraged them to stay at home.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There were a small number of LGAs in Greater Sydney which recorded growth in the number of young adults, but generally, the numbers were quite small. The largest growth of young adults was recorded in The Hills Shire (503 persons), followed by Camden (403) and Wollondilly (107). Although these LGAs contain greenfield areas popular with young homebuyers, the explanation for this growth is more likely to result from ageing in place in more established suburbs, and young adults remaining in the family home. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Outside of Greater Sydney, the largest declines in the young adult population were recorded in the regional cities of Wollongong (-651) and Newcastle (-637). Lake Macquarie, which covers the southern suburbs of the Newcastle urban area also recorded a small decline (-108). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">However patterns of growth and decline across regional NSW were mixed. Typically, rural areas tend to lose young adults through internal migration, but regional centres were more likely to record a decline in their population. Apart from the LGAs mentioned above, Albury, Singleton, Armidale, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga also recorded small declines in the young adult population in 2019-20. T</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">hose LGAs in regional NSW that did record growth in the young adult population did so in small numbers. The largest increase was recorded in Port Macquarie-Hastings (336), followed by Wingecarribee (247) and Tweed (216).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2019-20, the population of young adults (15-24 years) in Australia declined by 44,580 (-1.4%). This was the first time since the 1990s that a decline in the population of this cohort was recorded. The driver of this is net overseas migration, with more young adults leaving Australia than arriving. In NSW, the young adult population declined by 19,570 (-1.9%), and much of this was recorded in Greater Sydney. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-85582247893442196802021-09-27T16:25:00.002+10:002021-09-27T16:26:16.729+10:00Twelve months of COVID impacts on population<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Much as I appreciate the ABS releasing population data every quarter, March and September generally have limited interest for me. This year is different. The release of the March 2021 quarter data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. I've blogged previously about the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/would-australias-population-grow.html">potential impacts</a> of this on population change, particularly overseas migration. Now that we have the data, what does it tell us?</span></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;"><span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><b style="font-family: helvetica;">What is Australia's population?</b><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Australia's population at March 2021 was 25.7 million, an increase of 0.1% (35,700 persons) on the previous twelve months. This was the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/historical-population/2016">lowest growth rate recorded since 1916, and the lowest volume of growth recorded since the 1860s</a>. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">By way of comparison, Australia's population grew by 1.5% in the twelve months ended March 2020, equating to growth of 375,690 persons.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Net overseas migration (NOM) was -95,340 persons, consisting of 114,950 arrivals and 210,290 departures. The only reason Australia's population continued to grow was due to natural increase of 131,020 (births minus deaths). The components of population change are shown in the graph below.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYxSd-nZm-5LMpj_C7tl9hS5vX9FLfjxGkECIiAQAa8UOl3IEJVnesNOyWUsIuUn5mzIFtkew-wxzolFaYx4CuIt1sjwya0jrf9MVsYtT_QcxYTICEDM2hDlMXZGaaepE92omyvXlJwXY/s599/components+of+population+change+Aust+2002-2021.png" style="clear: left; display: inline; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="599" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYxSd-nZm-5LMpj_C7tl9hS5vX9FLfjxGkECIiAQAa8UOl3IEJVnesNOyWUsIuUn5mzIFtkew-wxzolFaYx4CuIt1sjwya0jrf9MVsYtT_QcxYTICEDM2hDlMXZGaaepE92omyvXlJwXY/s16000/components+of+population+change+Aust+2002-2021.png" /></a></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In terms of the drivers of growth, this is a clear departure from past trends. It </span>highlights the impact of the international border closure, with movement in and out of Australia highly regulated. More than 18 months into the pandemic (Sept 2021) the border is still closed, with no firm date of reopening. Recently a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-24/international-students-to-return-to-nsw-in-december/100488192">pilot program</a> involving the return of some international students in NSW was announced, but the numbers are limited. Until the border is open to wide-scale migration, natural increase will drive population growth in Australia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">However, it's worth noting that natural increase has generally declined each year since 2013. In the year ended March 2013, natural increase was 162,150, but the equivalent figure in 2021 was 131,020. This represents a decline of 19%. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It can be explained by a decline in the number of births, as well as a minor increase in the number of deaths. In fact, the number of births in 2020 was below 300,000 for the first time since 2008. The decline in birth numbers was particularly sharp in 2020 (-4.0%), and was recorded across all states and territories. This decline is unlikely to be related to decisions made about fertility in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Victoria has recorded a complete demographic turnaround</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">They say a week is a long time in politics, and if that's the case, the last twelve months have been an eternity in demographics. The December 2020 quarter population release provided a <a href="https://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/population-growth-in-australia-lowest.html">taster of what's happening in Victoria</a>, and it's fair to say there has been a complete U-turn in terms of population trends. In 2019, Victoria was the fastest growing state (2.0%), but in the year ended March 2021, the population declined by 0.6%. Victoria's population at March 2021 was 6.65 million, almost 43,000 fewer than the previous year. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Victoria has not recorded negative population growth since WW1. In 1915, the population declined by 10,740 (-0.7%), and this was followed by another decline of 19,780 (-1.4%) in 1916. This was due to the movement of troops out of the country and other travel restrictions. Most states and territories also recorded population decline at the time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Clearly, population decline is a rare occurrence in Victoria, and indeed, it's rare for the state to record very modest rates of population growth. Since 1900 annual population growth has been less than 0.5% on just fourteen occasions.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> The 1930s and 1990s are the prime examples, coincidentally both times of economic recession. In 1993, Victoria's population grew by just 8,520 persons (0.2%), the last time the volume of growth was less than 10,000. Before then, modest growth was recorded during the 1930s, with a low of 4,940 persons (0.3%) in 1935. The graph below provides a historical overview of population change in Victoria since 1851.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8V1lBku_T3WoH2aoWJSxxSkq2ZSglRZYxq0EPksMjhObksH3InUMLTqxuSjOEavoRAS_HwstW-KwczLPDpRW2OD4A_y6idI6oGJO5Y8HkcmEGxusdF2DadJpEabmlHHeaQDx5VNykqfQ/s671/victoria+historical+population.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="671" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8V1lBku_T3WoH2aoWJSxxSkq2ZSglRZYxq0EPksMjhObksH3InUMLTqxuSjOEavoRAS_HwstW-KwczLPDpRW2OD4A_y6idI6oGJO5Y8HkcmEGxusdF2DadJpEabmlHHeaQDx5VNykqfQ/s16000/victoria+historical+population.png" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Queensland is the fastest growing state</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At March 2021, Queensland's population was 5.21 million, an increase of 0.9% (43,900) over the previous twelve months. Much of this growth was fuelled by net interstate migration (30,790). Natural increase contributed another 29,150 persons to the population, but there was a NOM loss of 16,000 persons. Together, these trends meant that Queensland recorded the strongest growth rate in Australia. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Interestingly, the volume of growth in Queensland almost mirrors the decline in Victoria. Though it's tempting to attribute this growth to Victorians moving north, the reality is more complex. Queensland's interstate arrivals primarily come from NSW. In addition, increasing gains from net interstate migration predate the pandemic, continuing long standing trends.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>The role of overseas migration in NSW</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">NSW recorded very modest population growth (0.1%), or 11,700 persons, to reach a population of 8.18 million. This was the lowest growth since 1916 (-0.4%, or -8,400 persons). Typically, NSW </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">receives the largest share of overseas migrants in Australia and this is a major driver of population change. However for the year ended March 2021, NOM was negative (-13,490), as was net interstate migration (-17,800). Natural increase of 43,010 resulted in the modest population increase recorded.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The closure of the international border has not stopped migration in and out of Australia altogether. The chart below shows overseas arrivals and departures by state for the year ended March 2021. It shows that all states recorded negative net overseas migration. However, the number of arrivals into NSW was far higher than other states, comprising 51% of the total. </span></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVN9EKK1hIujc3xkNXbo6cGB4qK8sd3ocNc1oDIRp1ACfhdS8oY-VMkV2GyOZzmgFmCx0dqbVXHU0lkuKjXHKEAMj7ivZfXawmgFILOAb9g7q9FKAyH5zFDMb5e241Q4eUYX9DFN2fWlk/s598/oads+yr+ended+March+2021.png" style="clear: left; display: inline; font-family: helvetica; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="598" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVN9EKK1hIujc3xkNXbo6cGB4qK8sd3ocNc1oDIRp1ACfhdS8oY-VMkV2GyOZzmgFmCx0dqbVXHU0lkuKjXHKEAMj7ivZfXawmgFILOAb9g7q9FKAyH5zFDMb5e241Q4eUYX9DFN2fWlk/s16000/oads+yr+ended+March+2021.png" /></a></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The last 18 months have been unprecedented in terms of the international border closure and the impact on population change. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Arrivals to Australia are now heavily regulated, with caps introduced for each state and mandatory hotel quarantine for most arrivals. In the second half of 2020, the second wave of COVID cases in Victoria resulted in the suspension of hotel quarantine in that state. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Consequently, more arrivals came through NSW. As mentioned above, 51% of arrivals came through NSW in the year ended March 2021, compared to 36% the previous year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This may explain some of the increase in NSW, however the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/national-state-and-territory-population-methodology/mar-2021">ABS methodology explains</a> that arrivals into Australia are coded to their state of usual residence. NSW arrivals may enter the country through Sydney airport, but subsequently travel to their home state. It's not clear if COVID has impacted this aspect of the methodology.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">An intriguing aspect of this is that if NSW had recorded the same share of arrivals that it did the previous year, then that state would have also recorded population decline. NSW has long recorded net interstate migration loss, and the year ended March 2021 was no exception. Like Victoria, the level of natural increase would not have been enought to offset a larger negative NOM in this scenario. In other words, part of the reason NSW recorded an increase in population was because the state received proportionally more overseas arrivals than usual.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The release of the March 2021 quarter population data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. The impact on overseas migration, and subsequently population growth, has been immense. The Australian population grew by just 0.1% to reach 25.7 million. Growth only occurred due to natural increase. Queensland was the fastest growing state (0.9%) on the back of strong net interstate migration. At the other end of the scale, Victoria recorded population decline of 0.6%. This was a complete turnaround from the 2.0% recorded little more than a year ago. Australia's population will continue to grow at modest levels by way of natural increase while the international border remains closed.</span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-72663817203547897982021-09-08T18:32:00.001+10:002021-09-08T18:34:15.248+10:00Tasmania is the oldest state in Australia<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Despite recent growth driven by migration, Tasmania remains the oldest state in Australia. It has the highest median age, reaching 42.3 years in 2020. One in five people are aged 65 years and over. The age structure of a region, and how it's changing, is an important consideration in service planning. This blog uses recently released population data by the ABS to look at variations in the age structure across Tasmania.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span></span></b></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>What is Tasmania's population?</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At June 2020, the population of Tasmania was 540,780. This was an increase of 1.2% over the previous twelve months. For the last three years, population growth in Tasmania has exceeded 1.0%. This is in contrast to the first half of the 2010s, when very modest growth was recorded. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">This volatility has resulted in an average annual growth rate of 0.6% over the last ten years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The median age represents the point at which half the population is younger, and half is older. Medians are a better measure of the midpoint than the mean (or average), which can be skewed by outliers in the data. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Tasmania was the first state in Australia to reach a median age of 40 years, a figure that was recorded in 2010. Historically, Tasmania has recorded a loss of young adults interstate, typically for education and employment purposes. This tends to compound population ageing, particularly if they don't return and have families elsewhere. Since 2010, the median age has increased gradually to reach 42.3 years in 2020. The only other state with a median age exceeding 40 years is South Australia (40.3 years). By way of comparison, the median age of the Australian population in 2020 was 37.8 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Tasmania also has the highest proportion of older people in its population. People aged 65 years and over comprised 20.5% of the population in 2020, compared to 15.7% a decade before. In numerical terms, there are now more than 100,000 persons in this age group, and their rate of growth has averaged 3.3% per annum over the last decade - far exceeding total population growth.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Spatial patterns</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The median age varies considerably across the state, as shown in the map below. Darker shades indicate LGAs with a higher median age. These are concentrated along the east coast, as well as Flinders Island. The LGA with the highest median age was Tasman (57.1 years), but there were four others with a median age that exceeded 50 years. These were Break O'Day, Glamorgan - Spring Bay, Flinders and Central Highlands. The east coast of Tasmania is an area of high amenity, with coastal towns that are popular retirement destinations. However they are also areas that experience out-migration of young people, and this process contributes to population ageing.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig5-ordlYZt8wUtcbtwk8d934ipFndw_NOecgbn3-ZCTn54RkxJJWaWN8KtoPOLo6SQkrqe45Y-KC9f8KkyrqhdbGiln5ZlqD-9rv19oleGIlJEq9WL65Kcltp8ozP59sa8Cf4M7pmrFI/s610/median+age+by+lga+tasmania+2020.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="610" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig5-ordlYZt8wUtcbtwk8d934ipFndw_NOecgbn3-ZCTn54RkxJJWaWN8KtoPOLo6SQkrqe45Y-KC9f8KkyrqhdbGiln5ZlqD-9rv19oleGIlJEq9WL65Kcltp8ozP59sa8Cf4M7pmrFI/s16000/median+age+by+lga+tasmania+2020.png" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At the other end of the spectrum, the LGA of Brighton, located on Hobart's northern outskirts, recorded the lowest median age (34.9 years). Of Tasmania's 29 LGAs, only four recorded a median age under 40 years. They include Launceston, as well as other LGAs in the Greater Hobart area such as Glenorchy and the City of Hobart itself. Larger urban areas tend to attract young adults for employment, education and lifestyle reasons. This in turn has a dampening effect on the median age.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: arial;">Tasman Council has an older age profile</b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Tasman Council is located southeast of Hobart and encompasses rural areas, national parks, and a number of small settlements. The largest town is Eaglehawk Neck, with a <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/UCL622012?opendocument">2016 Census population of 356</a>. It is a region of high amenity and has a number of historic attractions, including <a href="https://portarthur.org.au/">Port Arthur</a>. In 2020, the population was 2,479. Between 2010 and 2020 population growth was modest, averaging 0.2% per annum. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The age structure of Tasman Council in 2010 and 2020 is shown in the graph below. Over this time the ageing of the population is clear, with an increase in the proportion of all five year age cohorts from 60-64 upwards. In 2010, 20.5% of the population was aged 65 years and over, and this increased to 32.5% in 2020 ie almost one in three persons. The numeric increase in the size of this cohort was 61% over the ten years. Although ageing in place has contributed to this growth, especially as the baby boomer cohort ages, internal migration - including retirement migration - is another significant driver of growth in this region. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At the same time, all cohorts from 0-55 years recorded a decline in their proportion of the population. This was particularly strong for children aged 0-14 years. In 2010, there were 397 people in this age group, representing 16.3% of the population. The equivalent figures in 2020 were 276 and 11.1%. This clearly impacts the demand for early years services, school education and sporting infrastructure in Tasman Council. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKOkJJexi-ylXsr5BwvJnuRzs-kpahEOC-Cs6GuPNs514u2xzWy13mGalUMTScS5YhfQbWWHymotIV3ggoaYGzmq3-V0qIDIvJU7yJiK7M7Qz1ra7B5QHMnbxzwfeFJnJwnlTmTEwIswk/s580/tasman+age+structure+2010-20.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKOkJJexi-ylXsr5BwvJnuRzs-kpahEOC-Cs6GuPNs514u2xzWy13mGalUMTScS5YhfQbWWHymotIV3ggoaYGzmq3-V0qIDIvJU7yJiK7M7Qz1ra7B5QHMnbxzwfeFJnJwnlTmTEwIswk/s16000/tasman+age+structure+2010-20.png" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></p><p><b style="font-family: arial;">Brighton Council has a younger age profile</b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Brighton Council is located on Hobart's outer northern fringe. It includes peri-urban settlements and suburban areas with pockets of greenfield development eg Old Beach. This attracts both young families seeking new housing, as well as people who seek a rural lifestyle, within reach of services and Hobart's employment market. Brighton Council recorded an average annual growth rate of 1.5% between 2010 and 2020, well above the state average. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The age structure of Brighton Council is shown in the graph below. Clearly, there are significant differences when compared to Tasman Council. The age structure is typical of an outer suburban area, with a larger proportion of children and young adults. In 2010, the population of 0-14 year olds was 4,030, representing 25.9% of the population. Modest growth over the decade resulted in a slight increase to 4,152 persons in 2020, but the proportion fell to 22.9%. Still significant, particularly in terms of the level of demand for services such as schools, but it also reflects the ageing of the Brighton Council population over the ten years. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBY3cyPhtRJYOwiKH57R1FLV05Tr_rvEbTxfQwLE09Qpp5KNZZMXfKipZ1c46ZTiWh0kcvTcl4FlhdZf6jEu9FM1zES7aNVqrMgH8uu7upromoqh0keoxiQh6NJuNPfpFEYFkZFeke-u0/s580/brighton+age+structure+2010-2020.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBY3cyPhtRJYOwiKH57R1FLV05Tr_rvEbTxfQwLE09Qpp5KNZZMXfKipZ1c46ZTiWh0kcvTcl4FlhdZf6jEu9FM1zES7aNVqrMgH8uu7upromoqh0keoxiQh6NJuNPfpFEYFkZFeke-u0/s16000/brighton+age+structure+2010-2020.png" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Brighton Council recorded significant growth of persons aged 60-79 years between 2010 and 2020. Much of this is attributable to ageing in place - note this cohort represents the bulk of baby boomers who are moving through the age spectrum. In 2010, there were 1,842 persons in this age group, and they comprised 11.8% of the population. By 2020, this had increased by almost two-thirds to 3,054, or 16.9% of the population. This cohort is diverse, comprising people still in the workforce, but an increasing number of retirees. The implications for planners in terms of service provision are intriguing as they need to balance the needs of young people with a rapidly increasing cohort of older persons who demand very different services.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Tasmania has a median age of 42.3 years, the highest of all states and territories in Australia. The median age varies considerably across the state, ranging from 34.9 years in Brighton to 57.1 years in Tasman. There are five LGAs in Tasmania where the median age exceeds 50 years, but just four where the median age is under 40 years. The age structures of Tasman and Brighton Councils, particularly with regard to how they change over time, provides the evidence base to plan services that are based on age. </span></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-45325004097785848002021-08-26T16:06:00.001+10:002021-08-26T16:07:40.037+10:00How language data can inform public health policy - the Sydney version<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The current outbreak of COVID-19 cases in Sydney has some close parallels to the second wave that hit Melbourne last year. Not only is the Sydney outbreak proving difficult to control, but it appears that public health messages are not reaching multicultural communities (CALD). This is particularly true where English proficiency is poor. This blog is essentially a Sydney version of <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/how-language-data-can-inform-public.html">one that I wrote last year about Melbourne</a>. It looks at the main languages spoken in Sydney, highlighting those with poor English proficiency, and their spatial distribution in the metropolitan area.</span></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>COVID-19 cases in Sydney</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">At 24th August 2021, <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-local.aspx">NSW had recorded 11,559 cases of COVID-19</a>, as recorded in the previous four weeks. The overwhelming majority of these were in the Sydney metropolitan area. Within Sydney, cases were concentrated in the western suburbs, particularly in an arc across three LGAs from Canterbury-Bankstown, through Cumberland and out to Blacktown. Together, these three LGAs account for just over half of COVID-19 cases in the Sydney metropolitan area. They are also LGAs where CALD communities comprise a significant proportion of the population. Census data shows that more than 60% of the population in both Cumberland and Canterbury-Bankstown speak a language other than English at home.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Languages spoken in Sydney</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In 2016, there were more than 200 languages spoken in Greater Sydney, and almost 36% of people speak a language other than English in the home. A total of 313,480 persons have poor English proficiency, comprising 6.5% of the population. However this differs widely amongst CALD communities.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The table below shows the main languages (other than English) spoken in Greater Sydney in 2016, and the proportion of speakers with poor English proficiency. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This is defined as people who speak English not well, or not at all. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Excluding English, Mandarin is the most common language spoken at home in Greater Sydney. There are 228,980 speakers, 28.5% of which have poor English proficiency. Arabic and Cantonese are the next most common languages. Of the main CALD communities, Korean speakers have the highest proportion with poor English proficiency (33.2%), followed by Vietnamese (32.7%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD1aSC1RTuwZQZZ-pKJCAu06Wph6Eq1900vHrMfM8Y0u0KqmElwp8GSEY-FPTK7qMetZdsr4Vt27Gmp9GUxsDa0dihofe6sEC0HeiPbqrqYIgsORt5mupXdOZCrmiDmiIQ4GYbtswaK2E/s520/main+languages+by+prof+in+English+Gtr+Syd+2016.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD1aSC1RTuwZQZZ-pKJCAu06Wph6Eq1900vHrMfM8Y0u0KqmElwp8GSEY-FPTK7qMetZdsr4Vt27Gmp9GUxsDa0dihofe6sEC0HeiPbqrqYIgsORt5mupXdOZCrmiDmiIQ4GYbtswaK2E/s16000/main+languages+by+prof+in+English+Gtr+Syd+2016.png" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></b></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;">Vietnamese and Korean speakers in Sydney</b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are 32,430 Vietnamese speakers with poor English proficiency across Greater Sydney. The equivalent figure for Korean speakers is 19,210. The map below uses the bivariate technique to show their spatial distribution by SA2. This is an effective way of demonstrating how different CALD communities live in different parts of the metropolitan area. Purple shaded areas represent higher numbers of Vietnamese speakers, whereas Korean speakers are more numerous in blue shaded areas. The darker shades of blue have the highest numbers of both Vietnamese and Korean speakers with poor English proficiency. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixlsVpRW29Ph1XeaeX8NHfb0Vo8DEoDV3tKxBIDKNimTTkZrRw3gptwfZDd7Qcy8wGZI6BP88xMeAxki2t_UUgNWV3gIm90IUVBuqizKzfAY846hyflTAgVBEiRgYSo4aOMh7eUIopZpI/s859/syd+vietnamese+and+korean+speakers.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="859" height="485" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixlsVpRW29Ph1XeaeX8NHfb0Vo8DEoDV3tKxBIDKNimTTkZrRw3gptwfZDd7Qcy8wGZI6BP88xMeAxki2t_UUgNWV3gIm90IUVBuqizKzfAY846hyflTAgVBEiRgYSo4aOMh7eUIopZpI/w640-h485/syd+vietnamese+and+korean+speakers.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The spatial distribution of Vietnamese and Korean speakers is quite different. Both communities show strong concentrations, but they are in different parts of the metropolitan area. Vietnamese speakers with poor English proficiency are concentrated in the south western suburbs, with smaller pockets in the Blacktown LGA and the inner west. The SA2 with the highest number of Vietnamese speakers with poor English proficiency is</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> Cabramatta - Lansvale (4,332). This represents 45% of Vietnamese speakers in that SA2, well above the average for metropolitan Sydney. Other SA2s with significant numbers include Canley Vale - Canley Heights (3,128) and Cabramatta West - Mount Pritchard (1,824).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Korean speakers with poor English proficiency are more likely to be located in established western suburbs, but also across the north and north west. The SA2</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> with the highest number is Lidcombe (1,609 speakers), followed by Strathfield (1,158). Both these SA2s are in the established band of western suburbs. This part of Sydney, which covers much of the Cumberland and Canterbury-Bankstown LGAs, has a higher number of both Korean and Vietnamese speakers with poor English proficiency. There is another smaller concentration around the CBD and inner south.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">As mentioned above, around half of the current COVID cases in Sydney are located in the LGAs of Blacktown, Cumberland and Canterbury-Bankstown. Their boundaries are indicated in red on the map and there is clear overlap with SA2s that have higher numbers of Vietnamese and Korean speakers with poor English proficiency. Of course there are many languages spoken in these areas - </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">this blog is merely illustrative of the issue by looking at two key languages. With regard to public health messaging, this data ensures that the right areas are targeted with relevant messaging in key languages. This includes printed and online material, as well as the involvement of community leaders to overcome any cultural barriers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are more than 200 languages spoken by the population in Greater Sydney and more than 313,000 people have a poor level of English proficiency. On its own, language spoken provides a good basis for determining how to engage with CALD communities, but combining this with proficiency in English provides a more complete picture. Around one-third of both Vietnamese and Korean speakers in Greater Sydney have poor English proficiency. Vietnamese speakers are more likely to live in the south western suburbs, whereas the Korean population live in the established west, as well as the north and north western suburbs. This provides a basis upon which to develop more localised responses to the current COVID-19 crisis in Sydney.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8157127706754281965.post-48557351584187644292021-08-01T17:37:00.004+10:002021-08-01T17:40:44.115+10:00The 2021 Census is almost upon us!<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The 2021 Australian Census will be held on Tuesday, 10th August. While the Census provides us with a count of people and dwellings, it has other important uses. These include determining appropriate electoral boundaries and number of representatives, as well as the allocation of GST funding to the states. While the 2021 Census is being conducted during a global pandemic, with some parts of Australian in lockdown, the data will still provide a comprehensive picture of the size and characteristics of the population. It will </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">establish new trends, dispel myths, but also provide insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the data will not be released until mid 2022, what can we look forward to?</span></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKVjhgtleG4J63PiKpIN2iKrsoKjdtjsqdKNvkrRR7wCkyEqpqW12LOOMB1VZZQpWxdlBDFqkf_gVzpGfCtSbuWA2fyLsdpKwpmXQXiAf__ZUbtq4y3rvOnDAlJ20vTul9yi20p6ur7FU/s650/rockhampton+aerial.JPG" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="650" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKVjhgtleG4J63PiKpIN2iKrsoKjdtjsqdKNvkrRR7wCkyEqpqW12LOOMB1VZZQpWxdlBDFqkf_gVzpGfCtSbuWA2fyLsdpKwpmXQXiAf__ZUbtq4y3rvOnDAlJ20vTul9yi20p6ur7FU/s16000/rockhampton+aerial.JPG" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p></p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><br /></b></span></div>Working from home</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It goes without saying that the COVID-19 pandemic has changed our lives in many ways, but how will this be represented in the Census data? The obvious one is the place of employment, including working from home. This data is collected by way of the question on the journey to work. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The 2016 Census showed that more than 500,000 people, or 4.7% of employed persons were<a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/who-is-working-from-home.html"> working from home</a>. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">More <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/feb-2021#work-from-home">recent data released by the ABS</a> shows that although close to half the workforce were working from home in the early days of the pandemic, the proportion has declined over time. Working from home is also industry and occupation specific, as not all jobs can be done from a laptop in the spare room. It's also influenced </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">by lockdowns and other restrictions, particularly when they are confined to one state such as the second wave in Victoria. The current lockdown in Sydney will also impact the overall numbers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In my travels around various social media I've seen comments suggesting that the journey to work data from the 2021 Census will be rendered useless as a comparative tool. It's almost certain that Sydney will still be locked down when the Census is held, resulting in a higher than normal number of people working from home. While this assertion is largely true, the importance of looking at the data from a point in time perspective cannot be understated. The 2021 Census data will provide more detail on the industry and occupations of people who work from home. This information is still useful for a variety of purposes such as workforce, transport and infrastructure planning. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/feb-2021#work-from-home">ABS data also suggests </a>that people work from home not only due to lockdowns, but also because of flexible working arrangements. This points to working from home becoming far more common in the post-pandemic landscape. In other words, even without lockdowns it's likely that the working from home population will increase substantially.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Internal migration</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/are-people-leaving-sydney-and-melbourne.html">ABS data shows</a> that an increasing number of people are moving out of Sydney and Melbourne. Property analysts in particular point to the ability of some people to work from home in a regional location, and that this is fuelling demand for regional properties. The significance of this trend will be informed by the internal migration data collected in the Census as there are questions</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">on place of residence one and five years prior. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">When cross-classified by demographic characteristics such as age, a picture of who is moving in and out of a region can be obtained. Moreover, the spatial patterns of these new migration trends is better informed by the Census data. Where are the people leaving Sydney and Melbourne relocating? Is it within the peri-urban catchment, or further afield? Regardless of the answer, these demographic trends impact local service planning, land supply, and infrastructure provision.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;">Language and birthplace</b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The diversity of languages spoken and proficiency in English is well informed by Census data. In 2016, about one in five Australians spoke a language other than English. In terms of service planning and even COVID-19 related strategies, the data available at the local level is critical. Victoria's second COVID-19 wave highlighted the need for more localised communication strategies in other languages to overcome barriers presented by people with poor English proficiency. There is evidence that the current outbreak in Sydney is facing similar challenges. Of course it's not just COVID-19 related strategies that will be informed by this data, it is used for a range of planning related services such as public health, interpreters and media communication. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In a similar vein, birthplace data is also of interest. I recently </span><a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/australias-migrant-communities-in-2020.html" style="font-family: helvetica;">wrote a blog</a><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> which looked at more current trends, but the 2021 Census will provide a more comprehensive evidence base. Where do emerging communities such as the Nepalese population live? How old are they? What are their socio-economic characteristics? In light of minimal overseas migration since March 2020, will the proportion of the overseas born persons increase compared to 2016? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Losing our religion</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">To paraphrase a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwtdhWltSIg">song from the early 1990s</a>, Australians have been progressively losing their religion for several decades. Since 1971, the <a href="http://demogblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/is-australia-least-religious-country.html">proportion of Australians claiming no religion</a> has steadily increased, reaching just shy of 30% in 2016. Younger people in particular are more likely to claim no religion. The Census remains the only comprehensive source of data on religion in Australia. As a result, the data is highly sought after and at times, controversial. I'm forever bemused at <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pauline-hanson-says-islam-is-a-disease-australia-needs-to-vaccinate-20170324-gv5w7z.html">claims by some commentators</a> that Muslims are taking over Australia, yet they only represent 2.6% of the population. They completely miss the key trend that Australians are increasingly non-religious. Given past trends, some <a href="https://twitter.com/timminchin/status/1https://twitter.com/timminchin/status/1421021310503768065421021310503768065">campaigning</a> by high profile entertainers, and consideration of the age structure, the proportion of Australians with no religion is likely to exceed 33% in 2021 ie one in three. Surely that tells us more about modern Australia?</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI8G8g9icXpKcHSiswrbdJEzZLvuXjX-3HEbLIwZI05yetyq76VPHN9HhcjgbtuTKlOjIy-Lopix0wM1sd-lhdpyUL2jPMHTh09TPkGIyi2HziS-Flm0ePDiUFtQ1pjL5vEjwC20xG2B4/s650/perth+suburbs_small.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="448" data-original-width="650" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI8G8g9icXpKcHSiswrbdJEzZLvuXjX-3HEbLIwZI05yetyq76VPHN9HhcjgbtuTKlOjIy-Lopix0wM1sd-lhdpyUL2jPMHTh09TPkGIyi2HziS-Flm0ePDiUFtQ1pjL5vEjwC20xG2B4/s16000/perth+suburbs_small.jpg" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span><p></p><p><b style="font-family: helvetica;">New questions on the 2021 Census form</b></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The 2021 Census will include <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/research/2021-census-topics-and-data-release-plan">new questions</a> on long term health conditions and defence force service. I'm particularly excited about the potential for the data on long term health conditions to inform health planning at a local level. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In Victoria, councils are required to produce a municipal health and wellbeing plan every four years. In the past, one of the challenges preparing these has been the relative lack of data available for LGAs. This new Census data on long term health conditions is a bit of a game changer, in that not only will the health data be available, but it can be cross classified with other demographic variables collected in the Census. It can also be used in conjunction with the disability indicator to provide more comprehensive data.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Final comments</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The current outbreak in Sydney certainly raises some challenges for the collection of Census data, but the ABS is well placed to manage these sorts of crises. The<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-encouraged-check-their-letterboxes-census-instructions"> ABS expects that</a> 75% of households will complete their Census forms online, rather than the traditional drop off and pick off of paper forms. Of course these options are still available, but the ABS is moving with the times and facilitating more flexible options to allow everyone to participate in the Census. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Finally, I don't think the pandemic is a reason to cancel or delay the Census. If anything, it provides researchers, policy makers and planners to assess the impact of a global pandemic. Who has been more adversely affected? Where do we need to concentrate our recovery efforts? The comments in this blog are merely a subset of the range of options that an updated evidence base presents. The data will be released progressively from June 2022 - let the countdown begin!</span></p><p><br /></p>Simone Alexanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06531319035412309929noreply@blogger.com0