In established suburbs of Australian cities, infill development is a often major source of new housing supply. Infill development is incremental and is typically takes the form of older, inferior stock on larger blocks being demolished and replaced with townhouses, villas and the like. In some suburbs, particularly those that developed in the immediate post war period and are close to train lines, infill development is transforming the housing supply and increasing population levels. Laverton, in Melbourne's western suburbs, is such an example.
Telling it like it is - one place at a time
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Friday, June 22, 2018
Australian population growth motors along
The quarterly release of population statistics by the ABS this week confirmed that Australia continues to record strong population growth. At the end of December 2017, Australia's population was 24.77 million. This was an increase of 388,000 persons on the previous year, with an annual growth rate of 1.6%. About 62% of population growth is attributable to net overseas migration and the remaining 38% to natural increase.
What states are growing strongly?
Victoria continues to record very strong population growth. The volume of growth in 2017 was 143,400 persons, equating to a growth rate of 2.3%, the highest of all states and territories. The ACT (2.2%) and Queensland (1.7%) also recorded growth rates above the national average.
Population growth in NSW
The population growth rate in NSW for the year ended 2017 was 1.5%, which was slightly below the national average. This was lower than the rate recorded in 2016 (1.7%), but still higher than the 1.4% recorded in each year 2013-2015. Natural increase and overseas migration contribute strongly to population growth in NSW, whereas the state loses population to other parts of Australia through interstate migration. The loss of population through interstate migration has been increasing since 2014.
The chart below shows the components of population change in NSW - it's particularly noteworthy in showing the volatility of the migration components compared to natural increase.
The volume of net overseas migration in NSW increased each year from 2010 to 2016, tapering off slightly in 2017. However it's clear to see from the chart that net overseas migration is extremely volatile over time as it tends to respond to economic conditions and changes in government policy. In contrast, natural increase is relatively steady. Between 2007 and 2012, the volume of natural increase in NSW was generally above 50,000 per annum, but had dropped back to 43,140. This is largely attributable to a decline in the number of births, but this may be related to birth registration lags as noted by the ABS. Watch this space because the numbers may be revised in the future.
Very low population growth in the Northern Territory
At the other end of the spectrum, the NT recorded a growth rate of just 0.2%, or 600 persons. Of course the NT has a small population so fluctuations in the growth rate can be expected as the components of population change are relatively volatile. The NT grows strongly through natural increase (births minus deaths) due to it's younger age structure and higher fertility rate. However the NT tends to lose population through net interstate migration. This is shown quite clearly in the chart below - note the difference compared to NSW, particularly with regards net overseas migration which is a small but volatile component of change in the NT. The difference between the two shows how the components of population change affect regions differently.
The NT last recorded a net gain from interstate migration in 2009, and overseas migration gains have been extremely volatile for the last decade, peaking in 2012. The increased loss of population through interstate migration was a major reason for the very modest growth rate.
Australia at 25 million
The ABS says that at current levels of growth, Australia's population will reach 25 million in August 2018. It's been 13 years since we hit 20 million, and it's almost 60 years since we were a very small nation of just 10 million persons.
This is not the only milestone approaching. At the end of 2017, the populations of NSW and Queensland were 7.92 million and 4.97 million respectively. Again, at current levels of growth, these states will reach the respective milestone of 8 and 5 million persons before the end of 2018.
Summary
Australia recorded a population growth rate of 1.6% for the year ended December 2017, however growth rates differ widely across the country. Victoria recorded the highest growth rate (2.3%), compared to the lowest rate of 0.2% in the Northern Territory. The components of population change hold the key to understanding why growth rates differ. Natural increase tends to be relatively stable, whereas interstate and especially overseas migration is quite volatile. This is shown by the different experiences of NSW and the Northern Territory. Typically NSW gains population through overseas migration, but loses population to other parts of Australia. Contrast this with the Northern Territory, where natural increase is the main contributor to population growth, and the migration components show great volatility over time.
What states are growing strongly?
Victoria continues to record very strong population growth. The volume of growth in 2017 was 143,400 persons, equating to a growth rate of 2.3%, the highest of all states and territories. The ACT (2.2%) and Queensland (1.7%) also recorded growth rates above the national average.
Population growth in NSW
The population growth rate in NSW for the year ended 2017 was 1.5%, which was slightly below the national average. This was lower than the rate recorded in 2016 (1.7%), but still higher than the 1.4% recorded in each year 2013-2015. Natural increase and overseas migration contribute strongly to population growth in NSW, whereas the state loses population to other parts of Australia through interstate migration. The loss of population through interstate migration has been increasing since 2014.
The chart below shows the components of population change in NSW - it's particularly noteworthy in showing the volatility of the migration components compared to natural increase.
The volume of net overseas migration in NSW increased each year from 2010 to 2016, tapering off slightly in 2017. However it's clear to see from the chart that net overseas migration is extremely volatile over time as it tends to respond to economic conditions and changes in government policy. In contrast, natural increase is relatively steady. Between 2007 and 2012, the volume of natural increase in NSW was generally above 50,000 per annum, but had dropped back to 43,140. This is largely attributable to a decline in the number of births, but this may be related to birth registration lags as noted by the ABS. Watch this space because the numbers may be revised in the future.
Very low population growth in the Northern Territory
At the other end of the spectrum, the NT recorded a growth rate of just 0.2%, or 600 persons. Of course the NT has a small population so fluctuations in the growth rate can be expected as the components of population change are relatively volatile. The NT grows strongly through natural increase (births minus deaths) due to it's younger age structure and higher fertility rate. However the NT tends to lose population through net interstate migration. This is shown quite clearly in the chart below - note the difference compared to NSW, particularly with regards net overseas migration which is a small but volatile component of change in the NT. The difference between the two shows how the components of population change affect regions differently.
The NT last recorded a net gain from interstate migration in 2009, and overseas migration gains have been extremely volatile for the last decade, peaking in 2012. The increased loss of population through interstate migration was a major reason for the very modest growth rate.
Australia at 25 million
The ABS says that at current levels of growth, Australia's population will reach 25 million in August 2018. It's been 13 years since we hit 20 million, and it's almost 60 years since we were a very small nation of just 10 million persons.
This is not the only milestone approaching. At the end of 2017, the populations of NSW and Queensland were 7.92 million and 4.97 million respectively. Again, at current levels of growth, these states will reach the respective milestone of 8 and 5 million persons before the end of 2018.
Summary
Australia recorded a population growth rate of 1.6% for the year ended December 2017, however growth rates differ widely across the country. Victoria recorded the highest growth rate (2.3%), compared to the lowest rate of 0.2% in the Northern Territory. The components of population change hold the key to understanding why growth rates differ. Natural increase tends to be relatively stable, whereas interstate and especially overseas migration is quite volatile. This is shown by the different experiences of NSW and the Northern Territory. Typically NSW gains population through overseas migration, but loses population to other parts of Australia. Contrast this with the Northern Territory, where natural increase is the main contributor to population growth, and the migration components show great volatility over time.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Are migrants to blame for rapid population growth ?
Barely a day goes by without some comment in the media about the problems associated with high levels of immigration. Overseas migrants are blamed for a range of problems, from traffic congestion to housing affordability and beyond. There's no doubting that Australia's population is growing rapidly, but less attention is paid to how it is growing. The ABS has recently changed the way they calculate population growth for sub-state geographies to a component based model. This provides the opportunity to have a closer look at how the population is growing and changing at smaller areas of geography.
What are the components of population change?
People are born, they die, and they move around - this is how populations grow and decline, and are known as the components of population change. The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is called natural increase. In Australia there are more births than deaths so the population will increase in the absence of any migration. The reverse can also be true ie more deaths than births, and this is termed natural decrease. In some parts of Australia this plays a significant role in population change.
Migration is the other component of population change, and can be considered in terms of interstate migration and overseas migration. Interstate migration is between the states and territories and for Australia sums up to zero. Overseas migration is between Australia and other countries - curiously in the debate over the level of overseas migration it's often forgotten that people do move out of Australia, so effectively media comments are about net overseas migration.
How is Australia's population growing?
In 2016-17 Australia's population grew by 388,120 persons - 124,710 through natural increase (37%) and 245,410 through net overseas migration (63%). Overseas migrants overwhelmingly settle in NSW and Victoria (76%). So yes it's true to say that net overseas migration is playing a major role in the rapidity of population growth, but clearly it isn't the only factor.
It is important to consider that migration is an extremely volatile component of population change. Overseas migration in particular is subject to changes in government policy, and it's also reliant on economic conditions. When jobs are plentiful levels of overseas migration increase simply because there are jobs available - you only have to consider the impact of the mining boom in Western Australia to see how this plays out demographically.
On the other hand, natural increase is far more stable over time as changes in birth and death rates are influenced by societal change and health, which do not exhibit the same volatility over time. Therefore, the contribution that each component makes to total population change is strongly influenced by the level of overseas migration.
How is Melbourne's population growing?
The new methodology employed by the ABS to calculate sub-state population growth provides an opportunity to see how the different components of change play out spatially. Recently I looked at population growth in Victoria, observing that most growth was occurring in Melbourne. Let's take that analysis a little further to look at the components of population change in Melbourne's LGAs.
Metropolitan Melbourne (defined by the 31 LGAs in the metropolitan area) grew by 123,360 persons in 2016-17. Overseas migration comprised almost 65% of this total, natural increase 29% and interstate migration 7%. Of all the growth attributable to overseas migration in Victoria in 2016-17, around 92% settled in Greater Melbourne.
The map below shows the rate of population change through overseas migration for each LGA in metropolitan Melbourne. Effectively this is what the growth rate would be if the only component of change was overseas migration. All LGAs recorded population growth through overseas migration, but the spatial pattern was different to that of total population growth.
The City of Melbourne clearly stands out, with an overseas migration growth rate of 6.3% - by far the strongest in metropolitan Melbourne. In numerical terms, this equated to 9,310 persons - around three-quarters of total population growth. It is likely that this is related to the high number of international students residing in and around the city. This is also likely to explain the higher overseas migration growth rate in Monash (3.5%). 2016 data from the Department of Education and Training indicates that over 33,000 international students were enrolled at the University of Melbourne and RMIT, both of whom have their main campus in the city. A further 18,500 were enrolled at Monash University. Of course international students are not the only overseas migrants but these enrolment statistics shed light on the scale of the contribution they make to population growth in our cities.
Interestingly, there was not a strong spatial relationship between the overseas migration rate and the rapidly growing LGAs on the urban fringe. While overseas migration does play a role in population growth in these areas, they are more likely to grow through natural increase and interstate migration. For instance, the City of Wyndham grew by 6.1% in 2016-17, but the overseas migration growth rate was 2.1%, the highest of the urban fringe LGAs. This compares with 2.3% for interstate migration and 1.7% for natural increase.
The lowest overseas migration rate (0.4%) was recorded in the outer urban LGAs of Mornington Peninsula and Yarra Ranges. Both LGAs recorded modest growth overall, but natural increase (0.6%) was the more important in Yarra Ranges. On the other hand, Mornington Peninsula recorded the lowest natural increase growth rate (0.05%) in metropolitan Melbourne, influenced no doubt by the older age profile in this LGA ie more deaths.
Summary
Overseas migration is the most volatile of the components of population change, responding to government policy and economic conditions. The current high levels of population growth show some relationship with higher levels of overseas migration at the macro geographic level, but this doesn't translate well at the small scale. Currently 65% of population growth in metropolitan Melbourne is attributable to overseas migration, but this varies widely by LGA. The strongest overseas migration growth rate was recorded in the City of Melbourne, and the lowest in Yarra Ranges and Mornington Peninsula.
What are the components of population change?
People are born, they die, and they move around - this is how populations grow and decline, and are known as the components of population change. The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is called natural increase. In Australia there are more births than deaths so the population will increase in the absence of any migration. The reverse can also be true ie more deaths than births, and this is termed natural decrease. In some parts of Australia this plays a significant role in population change.
Migration is the other component of population change, and can be considered in terms of interstate migration and overseas migration. Interstate migration is between the states and territories and for Australia sums up to zero. Overseas migration is between Australia and other countries - curiously in the debate over the level of overseas migration it's often forgotten that people do move out of Australia, so effectively media comments are about net overseas migration.
How is Australia's population growing?
In 2016-17 Australia's population grew by 388,120 persons - 124,710 through natural increase (37%) and 245,410 through net overseas migration (63%). Overseas migrants overwhelmingly settle in NSW and Victoria (76%). So yes it's true to say that net overseas migration is playing a major role in the rapidity of population growth, but clearly it isn't the only factor.
It is important to consider that migration is an extremely volatile component of population change. Overseas migration in particular is subject to changes in government policy, and it's also reliant on economic conditions. When jobs are plentiful levels of overseas migration increase simply because there are jobs available - you only have to consider the impact of the mining boom in Western Australia to see how this plays out demographically.
On the other hand, natural increase is far more stable over time as changes in birth and death rates are influenced by societal change and health, which do not exhibit the same volatility over time. Therefore, the contribution that each component makes to total population change is strongly influenced by the level of overseas migration.
How is Melbourne's population growing?
The new methodology employed by the ABS to calculate sub-state population growth provides an opportunity to see how the different components of change play out spatially. Recently I looked at population growth in Victoria, observing that most growth was occurring in Melbourne. Let's take that analysis a little further to look at the components of population change in Melbourne's LGAs.
Metropolitan Melbourne (defined by the 31 LGAs in the metropolitan area) grew by 123,360 persons in 2016-17. Overseas migration comprised almost 65% of this total, natural increase 29% and interstate migration 7%. Of all the growth attributable to overseas migration in Victoria in 2016-17, around 92% settled in Greater Melbourne.
The map below shows the rate of population change through overseas migration for each LGA in metropolitan Melbourne. Effectively this is what the growth rate would be if the only component of change was overseas migration. All LGAs recorded population growth through overseas migration, but the spatial pattern was different to that of total population growth.
The City of Melbourne clearly stands out, with an overseas migration growth rate of 6.3% - by far the strongest in metropolitan Melbourne. In numerical terms, this equated to 9,310 persons - around three-quarters of total population growth. It is likely that this is related to the high number of international students residing in and around the city. This is also likely to explain the higher overseas migration growth rate in Monash (3.5%). 2016 data from the Department of Education and Training indicates that over 33,000 international students were enrolled at the University of Melbourne and RMIT, both of whom have their main campus in the city. A further 18,500 were enrolled at Monash University. Of course international students are not the only overseas migrants but these enrolment statistics shed light on the scale of the contribution they make to population growth in our cities.
Interestingly, there was not a strong spatial relationship between the overseas migration rate and the rapidly growing LGAs on the urban fringe. While overseas migration does play a role in population growth in these areas, they are more likely to grow through natural increase and interstate migration. For instance, the City of Wyndham grew by 6.1% in 2016-17, but the overseas migration growth rate was 2.1%, the highest of the urban fringe LGAs. This compares with 2.3% for interstate migration and 1.7% for natural increase.
The lowest overseas migration rate (0.4%) was recorded in the outer urban LGAs of Mornington Peninsula and Yarra Ranges. Both LGAs recorded modest growth overall, but natural increase (0.6%) was the more important in Yarra Ranges. On the other hand, Mornington Peninsula recorded the lowest natural increase growth rate (0.05%) in metropolitan Melbourne, influenced no doubt by the older age profile in this LGA ie more deaths.
Summary
Overseas migration is the most volatile of the components of population change, responding to government policy and economic conditions. The current high levels of population growth show some relationship with higher levels of overseas migration at the macro geographic level, but this doesn't translate well at the small scale. Currently 65% of population growth in metropolitan Melbourne is attributable to overseas migration, but this varies widely by LGA. The strongest overseas migration growth rate was recorded in the City of Melbourne, and the lowest in Yarra Ranges and Mornington Peninsula.
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Population growth and the mining industry in Western Australia
A friend of mine recently commented about the downturn in the Western Australian economy and how slowly the population was growing. In 2016-17, Western Australia's population grew by 0.8%, which was half that of the national average. This is a noticeable turnaround from just a few short years ago, when the demand for labour on mining projects helped drive population growth to the highest levels in the country. Population growth and change in Western Australia has longed been tied to ebbs and flows in the mining sector. How has this played out over time?
Population growth in Western Australia, 1901-2017
The chart below shows the population of Western Australia (WA) between 1901 and 2017. As expected over a 116 year period, there is some volatility in the level of growth. Most notably, population growth has surged during periods of strong economic growth and mining booms.
The graph shows that since the end of WW2 the population of WA has grown dramatically, with faster periods of growth roughly correlating with mining booms in the 1960s, 1980s and more recently in the 2000s. During the 1960s, when iron-ore production increased, population growth in WA averaged around 3.5% per annum. Growth peaked at 4.3% in 1968-69, and in 1970-71 the population of WA reached 1 million persons.
Population growth in WA was above the national average from 1971 through to 2013. There were stronger periods of growth during the 1980s mining boom, particularly in the late 1980s when the Australian economy was quite strong and overseas migration was relatively high. In 2004-05, the WA population reached 2 million. It took just over 30 years to reach the second million compared to over 140 years to reach the first.
From 2006, population growth in WA surged once again as mining projects in the north of the state opened up significant opportunities for employment during their construction phase. Though a significant proportion of the workforce was "fly-in fly out" (or FIFO), the data clearly shows that population growth from interstate and overseas migration increased. This suggests that despite the high mobility of the workforce that some did relocate to WA. Between 2006 and 2013, the population growth rate was at 2.0% per annum or higher, peaking at 3.2% in 2008-09.
The key difference between the most recent mining boom and those in the past has been the volume of growth, even though the rate of growth is similar. Between 2006 and 2016, more than 508,000 people were added to the population. This compares with around 336,000 people in the ten years to 1991, the period covering the boom years of the 1980s. Between 2007 and 2013 the volume of growth was more than 50,000 per annum, far exceeding the peak of 43,270 persons added to the population in 1987-88.
Dominance of Perth
The settlement pattern in Australia has been described as one with primate cities, ie where the largest city is many times larger than the next sized city. This is certainly characteristic of WA. In 2016, the population of Greater Perth was 2.02 million, compared to the 74,100 recorded for the Bunbury Urban Area (which also includes surrounding suburbs and towns) - more than 27 times larger!
Perth has been the capital of WA since 1829, but it hasn't always dominated the population of the state. This is a legacy of the rural settlement and economy of Australia, with historically larger populations in rural areas responding to labour requirements on farms and in country towns. As the economy has shifted over time, Perth's share of the WA population has continued to increase - even accounting for changes in boundaries. In 1901, Perth comprised 37% of the WA population, and by the 1940s this had reached 50%. As the need for labour on farms declined, and the economy became more focussed on urban areas through jobs in manufacturing and service industries, Perth's share of the WA population continued to increase. This has occurred despite the mining booms described above which did direct a lot of investment into remote mining areas, and towns such as Karratha and Newman were established. By the early 1990s Greater Perth's share of WA's population reached 75%, and this had reached 79% by 2016.
Summary
WA's population has been below the national average since 2014, coinciding with reduced labour requirements in the mining sector. History shows that population growth in WA does have some correlation with mining booms, with stronger growth in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. As the state capital, Perth has always been the largest city, and is many times larger than Bunbury. With a 2016 population of just over 2 million, Perth now comprises 79% of the WA population.
Population growth in Western Australia, 1901-2017
The chart below shows the population of Western Australia (WA) between 1901 and 2017. As expected over a 116 year period, there is some volatility in the level of growth. Most notably, population growth has surged during periods of strong economic growth and mining booms.
Population growth in WA was above the national average from 1971 through to 2013. There were stronger periods of growth during the 1980s mining boom, particularly in the late 1980s when the Australian economy was quite strong and overseas migration was relatively high. In 2004-05, the WA population reached 2 million. It took just over 30 years to reach the second million compared to over 140 years to reach the first.
From 2006, population growth in WA surged once again as mining projects in the north of the state opened up significant opportunities for employment during their construction phase. Though a significant proportion of the workforce was "fly-in fly out" (or FIFO), the data clearly shows that population growth from interstate and overseas migration increased. This suggests that despite the high mobility of the workforce that some did relocate to WA. Between 2006 and 2013, the population growth rate was at 2.0% per annum or higher, peaking at 3.2% in 2008-09.
The key difference between the most recent mining boom and those in the past has been the volume of growth, even though the rate of growth is similar. Between 2006 and 2016, more than 508,000 people were added to the population. This compares with around 336,000 people in the ten years to 1991, the period covering the boom years of the 1980s. Between 2007 and 2013 the volume of growth was more than 50,000 per annum, far exceeding the peak of 43,270 persons added to the population in 1987-88.
Dominance of Perth
The settlement pattern in Australia has been described as one with primate cities, ie where the largest city is many times larger than the next sized city. This is certainly characteristic of WA. In 2016, the population of Greater Perth was 2.02 million, compared to the 74,100 recorded for the Bunbury Urban Area (which also includes surrounding suburbs and towns) - more than 27 times larger!
Perth has been the capital of WA since 1829, but it hasn't always dominated the population of the state. This is a legacy of the rural settlement and economy of Australia, with historically larger populations in rural areas responding to labour requirements on farms and in country towns. As the economy has shifted over time, Perth's share of the WA population has continued to increase - even accounting for changes in boundaries. In 1901, Perth comprised 37% of the WA population, and by the 1940s this had reached 50%. As the need for labour on farms declined, and the economy became more focussed on urban areas through jobs in manufacturing and service industries, Perth's share of the WA population continued to increase. This has occurred despite the mining booms described above which did direct a lot of investment into remote mining areas, and towns such as Karratha and Newman were established. By the early 1990s Greater Perth's share of WA's population reached 75%, and this had reached 79% by 2016.
Summary
WA's population has been below the national average since 2014, coinciding with reduced labour requirements in the mining sector. History shows that population growth in WA does have some correlation with mining booms, with stronger growth in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. As the state capital, Perth has always been the largest city, and is many times larger than Bunbury. With a 2016 population of just over 2 million, Perth now comprises 79% of the WA population.
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