Queensland's shifting population

This is a follow up to last week's blog, which looked at population growth trends in Greater Brisbane.  When I was conducting my analysis, it struck me that Greater Brisbane had a slightly smaller population than the rest of Queensland.  A quick look at the numbers showed that the populations were converging.  In 2019, the population of Greater Brisbane was 2.51m, compared to 2.58m in rest of Queensland.  However, if current trends continue, Greater Brisbane will have a larger population than the rest of the state by the mid-2020s.

How accurate are population forecasts?

Population issues have become highly political in Australia, dominating headlines whenever new data is released.  In 2019, the Australian Government responded to the growing policy pressures by establishing the Centre for Population.  One of its aims is to produce more accurate population forecasts.  As someone with a background in producing population forecasts, this claim intrigued me.  Population forecasts are not predictions, they are the outcome of a set of assumptions.  In this blog I will reflect on the issues and challenges associated with population forecasting, and what options might be available in the future.

Where is the Batavia Coast?

It goes without saying that Australia's coastline is long and diverse.  Some parts have large cities, others are remote and wild.  Many parts of the coast have been given names that are designed to attract visitors to the various regions, generally based around colour, geological features and even animals.  Examples include the Sapphire Coast in southern NSW and the Limestone Coast in South Australia.  They generally don't have any formal status, rather they exist merely for tourism purposes.  This blog looks at the demographic characteristics of the Batavia Coast in Western Australia - named after a shipwreck.

Australia's regional cities - which ones are growing?

High levels of population growth, particularly through overseas migration, have well and truly put the spotlight on population issues.  But population growth is uneven, and many of the problems are seen through the lens of people stuck in traffic jams in Sydney and Melbourne.  The new Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has flagged the potential for policies whereby new migrants are required to live in regional areas.  There have also been calls for greater incentives to encourage people and jobs to decentralise, especially to our regional cities.  This blog looks at recent growth trends in Australia's regional cities and considers the issue of whether or not they can alleviate growth pressures in our major cities by increasing their own population growth.

Midland infill - what happens now?

I recently wrote a blog about the role of infill development in the established parts of Australian cities.  The example of Laverton, in Melbourne's western suburbs was used.  It showed that despite the incremental nature of infill development, it plays an important role in adding to the dwelling stock.  However the supply of land available for infill is constrained, both by the individual decisions of home owners and the planning scheme.  What happens when a suburb has been infilled?  This blog will consider the example of Midland, an established suburb in Perth's north east.

Australian migrants - just who are they?

There's no disputing that the ABS releases a lot of demographic data.  The quarterly publication, Australian Demographic Statistics, provides regular headline numbers.  These are the ones found splashed across the front page of newspapers and fuelling debate about an appropriate level of population growth in Australia.  But it's the annual releases of data which provide more detailed insights into how the population is growing and changing.  Last week the ABS released Migration Australia (Cat. no. 3412.0).  Given that migration is the topic de jour, it's worth looking at what this data tells us.

Population growth and the mining industry in Western Australia

A friend of mine recently commented about the downturn in the Western Australian economy and how slowly the population was growing.  In 2016-17, Western Australia's population grew by 0.8%, which was half that of the national average.  This is a noticeable turnaround from just a few short years ago, when the demand for labour on mining projects helped drive population growth to the highest levels in the country.  Population growth and change in Western Australia has longed been tied to ebbs and flows in the mining sector.  How has this played out over time?

Population growth in Western Australia, 1901-2017

The chart below shows the population of Western Australia (WA) between 1901 and 2017.  As expected over a 116 year period, there is some volatility in the level of growth.  Most notably, population growth has surged during periods of strong economic growth and mining booms.

The graph shows that since the end of WW2 the population of WA has grown dramatically, with faster periods of growth roughly correlating with mining booms in the 1960s, 1980s and more recently in the 2000s.  During the 1960s, when iron-ore production increased, population growth in WA averaged around 3.5% per annum.  Growth peaked at 4.3% in 1968-69, and in 1970-71 the population of WA reached 1 million persons.  

Population growth in WA was above the national average from 1971 through to 2013.  There were stronger periods of growth during the 1980s mining boom, particularly in the late 1980s when the Australian economy was quite strong and overseas migration was relatively high.  In 2004-05, the WA population reached 2 million.  It took just over 30 years to reach the second million compared to over 140 years to reach the first.

From 2006, population growth in WA surged once again as mining projects in the north of the state opened up significant opportunities for employment during their construction phase.  Though a significant proportion of the workforce was "fly-in fly out" (or FIFO), the data clearly shows that population growth from interstate and overseas migration increased.  This suggests that despite the high mobility of the workforce that some did relocate to WA.  Between 2006 and 2013, the population growth rate was at 2.0% per annum or higher, peaking at 3.2% in 2008-09.

The key difference between the most recent mining boom and those in the past has been the volume of growth, even though the rate of growth is similar.  Between 2006 and 2016, more than 508,000 people were added to the population.  This compares with around 336,000 people in the ten years to 1991, the period covering the boom years of the 1980s.  Between 2007 and 2013 the volume of growth was more than 50,000 per annum, far exceeding the peak of 43,270 persons added to the population in 1987-88.

Dominance of Perth

The settlement pattern in Australia has been described as one with primate cities, ie where the largest city is many times larger than the next sized city.  This is certainly characteristic of WA.  In 2016, the population of Greater Perth was 2.02 million, compared to the 74,100 recorded for the Bunbury Urban Area (which also includes surrounding suburbs and towns) - more than 27 times larger!

Perth has been the capital of WA since 1829, but it hasn't always dominated the population of the state.  This is a legacy of the rural settlement and economy of Australia, with historically larger populations in rural areas responding to labour requirements on farms and in country towns.  As the economy has shifted over time, Perth's share of the WA population has continued to increase - even accounting for changes in boundaries.  In 1901, Perth comprised 37% of the WA population, and by the 1940s this had reached 50%.  As the need for labour on farms declined, and the economy became more focussed on urban areas through jobs in manufacturing and service industries, Perth's share of the WA population continued to increase.  This has occurred despite the mining booms described above which did direct a lot of investment into remote mining areas, and towns such as Karratha and Newman were established.  By the early 1990s Greater Perth's share of WA's population reached 75%, and this had reached 79% by 2016.

Summary

WA's population has been below the national average since 2014, coinciding with reduced labour requirements in the mining sector.  History shows that population growth in WA does have some correlation with mining booms, with stronger growth in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s.  As the state capital, Perth has always been the largest city, and is many times larger than Bunbury.  With a 2016 population of just over 2 million, Perth now comprises 79% of the WA population.