Record number of births registered in 2018

In demographic terms, the relationship between births and deaths indicates the level of natural increase and is one of the components of population change.  In 2018, a total of 315,147 births were registered in Australia - the highest number ever recorded.  At the same time, the number of deaths registered in Australia was 158,493.  However not all areas record more births than deaths.  This blog looks at natural increase, and how it differs across NSW.


Natural increase and decrease

Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths.  When there are more births than deaths, the population will generally grow in the absence of migration (assuming no loss through out-migration).  Conversely, when there more deaths than births (natural decrease) then the only way the population can grow is through net migration, either from overseas or other parts of Australia.  Although the Australian population is ageing, there are approximately twice as many births than deaths each year.  This ratio has not changed significantly for a number of years. 

Births and deaths in NSW

In 2018, there were 107,343 births and 53,633 deaths registered in NSW.  Like Australia, there were about twice as many births as deaths, but the level of natural increase has fluctuated in recent years due to registration lags that have occurred.  The births data presented here is created via registration with the Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages in each State and Territory.  The ABS explanatory notes (point 21) provide detail on how this impacts the data in NSW.  Although the issues with the data appear not to be completely resolved, it is still a useful source of data on births and deaths, particularly for smaller levels of geography.

The map below shows the level of natural increase by LGA in NSW for 2018.  Just 19 LGAs recorded natural decrease in 2018, mainly located in rural and coastal areas.  However, the level of natural decrease for many of these LGAS was quite small.  For instance, in Cootamundra-Gundagai Regional Council, and Brewarrina and Upper Lachlan Shires there was just one more registered death than birth.  

The LGA with the largest natural decrease was Mid-Coast Council on the NSW mid north coast (-330).  However there was a cluster of LGAs on the mid north coast that recorded natural decrease.  This is partly a function of their older age structure, as they are popular retirement destinations.  

Except for Hunters Hill, all LGAs in Sydney recorded natural increase.  The largest was Blacktown (4,865), and the ratio of births to deaths was around 4:1.  However, there were seven LGAs with a level of natural increase that exceeded 2,000 persons.  All of these were located in Sydney's west and either have larger populations or are located in greenfield areas that are popular with young families.  Blacktown, with a population of 366,530, has both of these characteristics, but it's also a diverse area with more established suburbs with older populations.  LGAs with larger populations by their very nature do have more births and deaths, but it's also important to look at the age structure to determine why this might be the case.

Why is this important?  

Basically it's a good illustration of the dynamics of population change.  As mentioned above, areas that have more deaths than births can only grow if they record net in-migration ie more people moving in than moving out.  Even if this occurs, the net flow inwards needs to be greater than the level of natural decrease for population growth to occur.  Many of the LGAs that record natural decrease are either growing modestly, or are declining in size.  For instance, Mid-Coast Council recorded a growth rate of 0.9% in 2017-18.  The components of change data indicate natural decrease of 352 persons, but the LGA gained population from overseas (200 persons) and from other parts of Australia (940 persons).  If Mid-Coast Council had the same number of births and deaths ie zero natural increase, then its growth rate in 2017-18 would have been 1.2%.

Summary

In 2018, there were 107,343 births and 53,633 deaths registered in NSW.  However when the data is examined by LGA, there were differences in the level of natural increase.  In fact, 19 LGAs recorded natural decrease, mostly in rural and coastal areas.  The highest was Mid-Coast Council on the mid north coast.  Aside from Hunters Hill, all LGAs in Sydney recorded natural increase.  It was particularly high in parts of western Sydney, with Blacktown recording the highest level (4,865 persons).  The level of natural increase is one of the components of population change and provides an insight into how a population might grow in the future.