Melbourne's peri-urban area
A study area approach is used here to examine population growth in peri-urban towns. The towns included for analysis are located in an arc around Melbourne extending approximately 100km from the CBD. It does however exclude the Bellarine Peninsula and towns around Geelong. While these towns are within Melbourne's economic catchment, they can be considered as part of Geelong's peri-urban belt and economic catchment.
Data challenges
In 2011 the ABS introduced a new geographic classification, the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). This was a major break from the previous classification and for smaller geographies such as towns, it made comparisons between 2006 and 2011 boundaries difficult. For this blog, I've used the Victorian Government's Town in Time dataset to examine population growth trends over the period 2006-16. However there was no attempt made to reconcile the boundary changes that occurred between 2006 and 2011 other than to describe the extent of the change. I've corrected this by estimating the difference in dwellings between 2006 and 2011 based on the boundary changes, which allows a more accurate estimate of population change. Most towns required some level of adjustment to the 2006 population so that it was consistent with 2016 boundaries.
It was also clear that there are some limitations in the way the ABS creates its boundaries for urban centres/localities (UCLs). Some towns had significant areas of development outside their 2016 boundaries. The most extreme example was Wallan, a growing town around 45km north of Melbourne. At least two major housing developments were located outside the UCL boundary, so it's likely the 2016 population of Wallan is far higher than the one published by the ABS for the UCL boundary. The ABS is currently reviewing the ASGS in light of the 2021 Census. Hopefully these types of issues will be addressed so that town populations can be measured more accurately in the future.
Population growth in peri-urban towns around Melbourne
Despite these challenges, a useable dataset was created for peri-urban towns between 2006 and 2016. The population change in these towns is shown in the map below. Towns shaded blue grew over this time period, while those shaded red declined in population.
Not surprisingly, the larger towns recorded the largest increase in population. The largest increase was recorded in Drouin, which grew by 4,730 persons between 2006 and 2016 to reach a population of 11,602. This equates to a growth rate of about 5% per annum, on a par with some of the fast growing suburbs in outer Melbourne. The town has almost doubled in size since 2006. Strong growth will continue into the future as there is significant long term housing supply.
Drouin is located in Baw Baw Shire about 80km south-east of Melbourne, just off the Princes Highway. It is accessible to the employment markets in metropolitan Melbourne, particularly in the outer south-east via road and rail. Drouin is also attractive as a semi-rural and more affordable alternative to Pakenham (based on median house prices).
Other towns that grew strongly between 2006 and 2016 were Bacchus Marsh (+4,120 persons), Gisborne (+3,120) and Warragul (+2,510). All of these towns are within commuting distance of Melbourne and can be reached via road or rail. Similar to Drouin, strong growth is expected to continue into the future due to significant residential land supply, as well as the attraction of a relatively affordable semi-rural lifestyle.
The peri-urban town that recorded the fastest growth between 2006 and 2016 was Beveridge, a small locality just south of Wallan. Although this was from a small base (population of 370 in 2006), this increased to 1,870 by 2016 and equates to a growth rate of 17.6% per annum over the ten years. Much of this growth has occurred in the Mandalay estate which is a master planned community, and significant growth is expected in this estate and the surrounding area the future.
Not all about growth
Not all peri-urban towns recorded growth between 2006 and 2016. About one in four towns lost population. The largest declines were in a series of towns impacted by the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. These include Marysville (-190 persons), Kinglake (-140) and Hazeldene (-126). However, each of these towns grew between 2011 and 2016, indicating that they were slowly recovering their pre-Black Saturday populations. For instance, Marysville had a population of 610 in 2006, before declining to 230 in 2011, and then increasing to 430 in 2016. Aerial imagery (Google Earth) shows that many dwellings have not been rebuilt since the fires of 2009.
There were also some towns in the Yarra Valley and along the Princes Highway that recorded population decline between 2006 and 2016. Most of these totals were small. In many cases, limited land supply and maturing populations were the underlying cause of this decline. The largest of these towns was Warburton (1,870 persons in 2016), about 60km east of Melbourne. Outward expansion of the town is constrained by topography and national parks, limiting new development that would facilitate population growth.
Discussion
Some commentators have expressed concern over the rapid growth of peri-urban areas, particularly with respect to the impact on the environment, housing affordability and service provision. However the data shows that not all towns are growing, rather it is concentrated in larger towns with a good supply of residential land supply. These towns also offer the attraction of a semi-rural lifestyle and more affordable housing that enables commuting in Melbourne if required. It is likely that these areas will continue to attract new residents well into the future.
The 2019-2020 bushfires do highlight the potential dangers associated with continued development in peri-urban areas. Many peri-urban towns are located in forested areas and national parks, making them vulnerable to bushfires. As discussed above, towns impacted by Black Saturday are yet to recover their populations and it's not clear if they will. In contrast, Census data shows many towns that were impacted by the 1983 Ash Wednesday bushfires had regained their populations by 1986. For instance, Cockatoo's population in 1981 was 1,688 but by 1986 it was 2,508, and increased again to 3,367 by 1991. In other words, between 1981 and 1991 the town's population doubled, despite losing almost 300 dwellings in the fires. Whether Marysville and other towns regain their pre-Black Saturday populations also needs to be considered in light of changes to the planning system and the recommendations of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission.
Summary
Most peri-urban towns around Melbourne recorded growth between 2006 and 2016. The largest towns recorded the largest increases, primarily on account of plentiful land supply, more affordable housing and the attraction of a semi-rural lifestyle within commuting distance of Melbourne. Drouin recorded the highest volume of growth and almost doubled in size between 2006 and 2016, but the smaller settlement of Beveridge recorded the strongest annual average growth rate of 17.6% per annum. About one-quarter of peri-urban towns lost population, most notably those impacted by the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, and others with limited scope for further growth. Overall there is strong demand for living in peri-urban towns, that is likely to continue well into the future.
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| Source: Towns in Time, Department of Land, Water and Planning (with adjustments to the 2006 population made by the author). Data available at https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/land-use-and-population-research/census-2016/towns-in-time |
Not surprisingly, the larger towns recorded the largest increase in population. The largest increase was recorded in Drouin, which grew by 4,730 persons between 2006 and 2016 to reach a population of 11,602. This equates to a growth rate of about 5% per annum, on a par with some of the fast growing suburbs in outer Melbourne. The town has almost doubled in size since 2006. Strong growth will continue into the future as there is significant long term housing supply.
Drouin is located in Baw Baw Shire about 80km south-east of Melbourne, just off the Princes Highway. It is accessible to the employment markets in metropolitan Melbourne, particularly in the outer south-east via road and rail. Drouin is also attractive as a semi-rural and more affordable alternative to Pakenham (based on median house prices).
Other towns that grew strongly between 2006 and 2016 were Bacchus Marsh (+4,120 persons), Gisborne (+3,120) and Warragul (+2,510). All of these towns are within commuting distance of Melbourne and can be reached via road or rail. Similar to Drouin, strong growth is expected to continue into the future due to significant residential land supply, as well as the attraction of a relatively affordable semi-rural lifestyle.
The peri-urban town that recorded the fastest growth between 2006 and 2016 was Beveridge, a small locality just south of Wallan. Although this was from a small base (population of 370 in 2006), this increased to 1,870 by 2016 and equates to a growth rate of 17.6% per annum over the ten years. Much of this growth has occurred in the Mandalay estate which is a master planned community, and significant growth is expected in this estate and the surrounding area the future.
Not all about growth
Not all peri-urban towns recorded growth between 2006 and 2016. About one in four towns lost population. The largest declines were in a series of towns impacted by the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. These include Marysville (-190 persons), Kinglake (-140) and Hazeldene (-126). However, each of these towns grew between 2011 and 2016, indicating that they were slowly recovering their pre-Black Saturday populations. For instance, Marysville had a population of 610 in 2006, before declining to 230 in 2011, and then increasing to 430 in 2016. Aerial imagery (Google Earth) shows that many dwellings have not been rebuilt since the fires of 2009.
There were also some towns in the Yarra Valley and along the Princes Highway that recorded population decline between 2006 and 2016. Most of these totals were small. In many cases, limited land supply and maturing populations were the underlying cause of this decline. The largest of these towns was Warburton (1,870 persons in 2016), about 60km east of Melbourne. Outward expansion of the town is constrained by topography and national parks, limiting new development that would facilitate population growth.
Discussion
Some commentators have expressed concern over the rapid growth of peri-urban areas, particularly with respect to the impact on the environment, housing affordability and service provision. However the data shows that not all towns are growing, rather it is concentrated in larger towns with a good supply of residential land supply. These towns also offer the attraction of a semi-rural lifestyle and more affordable housing that enables commuting in Melbourne if required. It is likely that these areas will continue to attract new residents well into the future.
The 2019-2020 bushfires do highlight the potential dangers associated with continued development in peri-urban areas. Many peri-urban towns are located in forested areas and national parks, making them vulnerable to bushfires. As discussed above, towns impacted by Black Saturday are yet to recover their populations and it's not clear if they will. In contrast, Census data shows many towns that were impacted by the 1983 Ash Wednesday bushfires had regained their populations by 1986. For instance, Cockatoo's population in 1981 was 1,688 but by 1986 it was 2,508, and increased again to 3,367 by 1991. In other words, between 1981 and 1991 the town's population doubled, despite losing almost 300 dwellings in the fires. Whether Marysville and other towns regain their pre-Black Saturday populations also needs to be considered in light of changes to the planning system and the recommendations of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission.
Summary
Most peri-urban towns around Melbourne recorded growth between 2006 and 2016. The largest towns recorded the largest increases, primarily on account of plentiful land supply, more affordable housing and the attraction of a semi-rural lifestyle within commuting distance of Melbourne. Drouin recorded the highest volume of growth and almost doubled in size between 2006 and 2016, but the smaller settlement of Beveridge recorded the strongest annual average growth rate of 17.6% per annum. About one-quarter of peri-urban towns lost population, most notably those impacted by the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, and others with limited scope for further growth. Overall there is strong demand for living in peri-urban towns, that is likely to continue well into the future.
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