Thursday, February 27, 2020

Which LGA has the longest standing boundary?

Changes to local government boundaries (LGAs) are a thorn in the side to any researcher interested in time series analysis.  Depending on the scale of the change, adjustments need to be made to the data in order to make it comparable.  On a recent day trip to the historic town of Queenscliff, I was reminded that the Borough of Queenscliffe (the spelling is different) was the only LGA in Victoria to emerge from the reforms of the 1990s unscathed.  It made me wonder - is this the longest standing stable LGA boundary in Australia, or is there another contender?  I go on a quest to find out.

Local government boundaries can and do change

There are often minor adjustments of local government boundaries, sometimes involving a handful of properties, and this process is formally gazetted.  However, in the mid-1990s, there was an unprecedented number of council mergers and boundary changes in Victoria.  The number of councils was reduced from 210 to 78.  Not only was this controversial, but it produced a break in series that made it challenging to compare data such as population change over time.  More recently, there were several council mergers in NSW, and plans for wider reaching reform before legal action prevented further mergers.  
The Western Australian government also proposed several mergers in 2015, but none proceeded after councils in metropolitan Perth voted against it.

Although it becomes challenging to overcome a break in series, it is not impossible.  The ABS provides concordances which shows the relationship between spatial units, and I've previously blogged about the Town in Time data produced by the Victorian state government.  Consultancy firm .id also produce a community profile whereby boundaries are stabilised at a point in time and adjustments made to the data in order to produce a consistent time series.


Longest stable boundary

There is a difference between the oldest municipality and the longest standing stable boundary, but they offer a starting point for analysis.  In Australia, local governments started to emerge in the mid 19th century, but as cities grew the LGA boundaries tended to move with them.  The oldest LGA in Australia is the City of Adelaide, which was established in 1840.  Coincidentally, it is also the LGA with the longest standing stable boundary.  The layout of the city, designed by Colonel William Light, encompassed a built up area surrounded by parklands.  These have acted as a natural boundary which has remained unchanged since 1840.


One of the challenges in determining boundaries is the lack of maps dating back to the time LGAs were established.  In recent years many libraries have digitised their historic materials, but not everything is available.  Many LGAs in Sydney were established in the 1850s and 1860s and there are a number of maps available from the later part of the nineteenth century which proved to be a rich source of material.  For example, the Municipality of Hunters Hill, was established in 1861 and I was able to source a map from the 1890s that confirmed the boundary essentially follows the same features it does in 2020.  But still not possible to see if it was the same boundary thirty years prior.

In the case of Queenscliffe, the Borough was established in 1863 and the evidence suggests that the boundary has been largely unchanged since that time.  Again, the challenge was to source a map to confirm this.  The oldest map I could find dates back to 1881, and indicates that it followed the same road line it does in 2020.  Prior to this, there is a description of the boundary at the time the Borough was established, but this didn't entirely match the road line.

Historic Census data

Prior to 1901, the colonies of Australia each conducted their own Censuses.  This data is available through the Australian National University, but unfortunately the web link was not working when I was conducting research into this blog.  Obviously this meant it wasn't possible to produce data for LGAs in the nineteenth century.

The ABS historic Census data (1911-1991) can be accessed here.  However, unlike today where you can create your own Census tables in Tablebuilder, historic material is confined to the datasets that were released and this was mostly in paper publications.  Therefore, not only is there the challenge of accessing the data, but it's limited to standard tables and geographies.  Furthermore, different field methodologies, such as collecting enumerated versus usual residence data, can also create issues regarding data comparability.  Regardless, the data that is available provides a rich insight into how areas have changed over the last century or so.

Queenscliffe 1921-2016

So back to Queenscliffe - the LGA that instigated the research for this blog.  The chart below shows the age structure of the Borough of Queenscliffe in 1921, 1971 and 2016 - not quite 100 years but close enough (note to self - update this after the next Census).


























Queenscliffe's population has not changed dramatically since 1921, reflective of the small size of the LGA and lack of land for urban expansion.  The population was 2,480 in 1921, and increased slightly to 2,810 in 1971, before decreasing to 2,660 in 2016.

This relatively stable population belies significant changes in the age structure.  The population has matured significantly as shown by the increase in both the number and proportion of older persons.  In 1921, there were 55 persons aged 70 years and over, and this had increased more than five-fold by 1971 to 297 persons.  In the next 45 years to 2016, this had more than quadrupled, such that the 70 plus population was almost 750 persons.  At the same time, the proportion of the population aged 70 plus was 28% in 2016, but just 2% in 1921.

Adelaide 1921-2016

Adelaide's population has also undergone significant change since 1921, but in a different way to Queenscliffe.  Like many inner city areas across Australia, the population declined throughout much of the twentieth century as the metropolitan area sprawled outwards and city centres became places to work rather than live.  In 1921, the population was 39,430 but had more than halved by 1971 when the figure was 16,310.  In more recent years, city living has become more popular, high-rise apartments have been built, resulting in a population turnaround.  In 2016, the population was 27,620, not quite double what it was in 1971.  Note this is the enumerated population which may differ to the usual residence population, especially in the CBD where tourists tend to stay.  With continued construction of apartments and the popularity of city living showing no signs of slowing, it will be interesting to see when Adelaide reaches its historic highs again.



























In contrast to Queenscliffe's population, Adelaide's age structure is younger, with a higher proportion of young adults aged 20-29 in particular.  In 2016, 30% of the population fell into his age cohort.  But the city has always been attractive to young adults, even in 1921, 19% of the population was aged 20-29, but with more females than males.  Overall the population has aged - in 1921 just 3.3% of the population was aged 70 plus, but this had increased to 9.1% in 2016. What is also notable about the change in age structure is the much lower number of children, indicating far fewer families. 

Summary

This blog initially set out to establish which LGA has the longest standing stable boundary, but it has also highlighted the challenges associated with using historical data.  These challenges are spatial (boundary changes), definitional and availability.  The City of Adelaide was established in 1840 and its boundary has remained unchanged since that time.  Unfortunately it wasn't possible to source data prior to 1901, but the data that does exist shows there has been considerable change.  Adelaide's story is one of considerable population decline in the twentieth century, which has recently begun to increase again.  The Adelaide of 1921 had more families and children, whereas the 2016 version has a high proportion of young adults.  In contrast, Queenscliffe, the only LGA in Victoria that remained unscathed in the wake of the mid-1990s LGA reforms, has had a stable population that has aged considerably.

Many thanks to the staff members at the Borough of Queenscliffe and the State Library of Victoria who assisted with the research for this blog.

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