Australia in 2019 - before the pandemic

The release of quarterly population data by the ABS last week slipped somewhat under the radar. No doubt this was partly due to the release of labour force data the same day, but possibly also because it was population data from the December 2019 quarter ie pre COVID-19. These days data that shows the impact of the pandemic is all the rage - and rightly so - but the December 2019 population data provides a useful benchmark by which to measure future impacts. Read on to find out more about Australia's population in 2019.

Australia's population in 2019

In December 2019, the population of Australia was 25.52 million, an increase of 349,830 persons on the December 2018 figure. This represented a growth rate of 1.4%, the lowest figure recorded since 2010. The reason for the decline was due to a lower volume of net overseas migration. In 2018 net overseas migration was 252,220, but this declined to 210,660 in 2019.

For the first time since 2000, no state or territory recorded a growth rate exceeding 2% per annum. Victoria continues to be the fastest growing state, recording a rate of 1.9% in 2019. This was followed by Queensland (1.6%) and Western Australia (1.3%). The Northern Territory recorded a second year of population decline (-0.4%).

The volume and rate of growth in 2019 were lower in most states compared to 2018. Of particular note was the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), where growth almost halved. This was due to a decline in migration, both from overseas and interstate. Net overseas migration was just 1,290 persons, the lowest level in over a decade. The ACT recorded a loss of persons through net interstate migration (-590) for the first time since 2014. 

The ACT Treasury asserts the decline in population growth is due to international students leaving the country at the end of 2019 and being unable to return due to travel restrictions imposed in February and March. While this may explain the decline in net overseas migration, it is not an explanation for the decline in net interstate migration.

South Australia and Western Australia belied the trends recorded in other parts of Australia, recording stronger growth in 2019. South Australia's growth rate was 0.9% in both 2018 and 2019, but the volume of growth was higher (15,740 in 2019, 14,950 in 2018). Western Australia recorded a growth rate of 1.3% in 2019, the first time it has exceeded 1% since 2014. The volume of growth in 2019 was 33,240, compared to 23,280 in 2018.

South Australia

South Australia has recorded population growth rates below the national average for a number of years. In the late 2000s the growth rate exceeded 1%, but this decade it has generally been lower. The growth rate of just 0.6% in 2017 was the lowest for more than ten years. As mentioned above, this has increased to 0.9%. In December 2019, the population of South Australia was 1.76 million.

The stronger growth in the last couple of years is due to a slightly higher volume of net overseas migration, but also a slight reduction in interstate migration losses. The graph below shows the components of population change in South Australia since 1982.

The volume of population growth in 2019 was 15,410 persons. Net overseas migration continues to be the main contributor to population change in South Australia, with a net gain of more than 14,000. South Australia has traditionally lost population to other parts of Australia, but the net loss through interstate migration has contracted in the last few years. In 2019, the state recorded a net loss of 3,860 people though interstate migration, compared to 7,750 in 2016. 

The downward trend in the volume of natural increase - evident since 2007 - appears to have slowed. In 2019, natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,530. This is still one of the lowest figures since 1982, but still higher than the 5,060 recorded in 2017 (the lowest figure). The higher volume of net overseas migration may have influenced this, as overseas migrants tend to be younger, and many start their families in Australia.

Western Australia

The fortunes of population change in Western Australia have been well documented on this blog. In December 2019, the population was 2.64 million, an increase of 1.3% on the 2018 figure of 2.61 million. Both the rate and volume of growth were the strongest since 2014, when the population impacts of the downturn in the mining industry were beginning to be felt.

The graph below shows the components of population change in Western Australia since 1982. 

The downward trend in net migration, both from overseas and interstate, is evident from around 2012. However since 2016 the trend has reversed. In 2019, there was a net gain of 18,860 persons via overseas migration, the highest level since 2013. Interestingly, net overseas migration just pipped natural increase (+ 18,500 persons) to regain its mantle as the main contributor to Western Australia's population growth.

Net interstate migration is also gaining traction, with a loss of 4,120 persons to other parts of Australia. This compares with a loss of 9,500 persons in 2018. Western Australia has now recorded six consecutive years of population loss through net interstate migration. Whether this trend continues in 2020 is unclear, as movement around Australia is difficult due to some states (including Western Australia) imposing tight border controls. In the case of Western Australia, some exemptions apply for movement into the state. In other words, it's still possible to move to (and from) Western Australia. The scale of interstate migration, and how this translates into gains and losses between each state and territory, will become clearer when 2020 data for March and June are released by the ABS.

March 2020 quarter and COVID-19 impacts

The ABS will release March 2020 population data on 24 September 2020. This is certain to raise a significant amount of interest as it will be the first clear indication of how population change has been impacted by COVID-19. The ABS has already released some preliminary data which shows the insane level of decline in the number of overseas arrivals. In addition, if you haven't already, you can read my own opinion on the potential impacts here.

Summary

Australia's population at December 2019 reached 25.52 million, a 1.4% per cent increase over the previous year. This was the lowest growth rate recorded since 2010, and was attributable to a decline in net overseas migration. Most states and territories recorded more modest population growth in 2019, however South Australia and Western Australia showed the opposite trend. This was primarily due to a higher volume of net overseas migration, and smaller losses through net interstate migration.