Despite recent growth driven by migration, Tasmania remains the oldest state in Australia. It has the highest median age, reaching 42.3 years in 2020. One in five people are aged 65 years and over. The age structure of a region, and how it's changing, is an important consideration in service planning. This blog uses recently released population data by the ABS to look at variations in the age structure across Tasmania.
What is Tasmania's population?
At June 2020, the population of Tasmania was 540,780. This was an increase of 1.2% over the previous twelve months. For the last three years, population growth in Tasmania has exceeded 1.0%. This is in contrast to the first half of the 2010s, when very modest growth was recorded. This volatility has resulted in an average annual growth rate of 0.6% over the last ten years.
The median age represents the point at which half the population is younger, and half is older. Medians are a better measure of the midpoint than the mean (or average), which can be skewed by outliers in the data.
Tasmania was the first state in Australia to reach a median age of 40 years, a figure that was recorded in 2010. Historically, Tasmania has recorded a loss of young adults interstate, typically for education and employment purposes. This tends to compound population ageing, particularly if they don't return and have families elsewhere. Since 2010, the median age has increased gradually to reach 42.3 years in 2020. The only other state with a median age exceeding 40 years is South Australia (40.3 years). By way of comparison, the median age of the Australian population in 2020 was 37.8 years.
Tasmania also has the highest proportion of older people in its population. People aged 65 years and over comprised 20.5% of the population in 2020, compared to 15.7% a decade before. In numerical terms, there are now more than 100,000 persons in this age group, and their rate of growth has averaged 3.3% per annum over the last decade - far exceeding total population growth.
Spatial patterns
The median age varies considerably across the state, as shown in the map below. Darker shades indicate LGAs with a higher median age. These are concentrated along the east coast, as well as Flinders Island. The LGA with the highest median age was Tasman (57.1 years), but there were four others with a median age that exceeded 50 years. These were Break O'Day, Glamorgan - Spring Bay, Flinders and Central Highlands. The east coast of Tasmania is an area of high amenity, with coastal towns that are popular retirement destinations. However they are also areas that experience out-migration of young people, and this process contributes to population ageing.
At the other end of the spectrum, the LGA of Brighton, located on Hobart's northern outskirts, recorded the lowest median age (34.9 years). Of Tasmania's 29 LGAs, only four recorded a median age under 40 years. They include Launceston, as well as other LGAs in the Greater Hobart area such as Glenorchy and the City of Hobart itself. Larger urban areas tend to attract young adults for employment, education and lifestyle reasons. This in turn has a dampening effect on the median age.
Tasman Council has an older age profile
Tasman Council is located southeast of Hobart and encompasses rural areas, national parks, and a number of small settlements. The largest town is Eaglehawk Neck, with a 2016 Census population of 356. It is a region of high amenity and has a number of historic attractions, including Port Arthur. In 2020, the population was 2,479. Between 2010 and 2020 population growth was modest, averaging 0.2% per annum.
The age structure of Tasman Council in 2010 and 2020 is shown in the graph below. Over this time the ageing of the population is clear, with an increase in the proportion of all five year age cohorts from 60-64 upwards. In 2010, 20.5% of the population was aged 65 years and over, and this increased to 32.5% in 2020 ie almost one in three persons. The numeric increase in the size of this cohort was 61% over the ten years. Although ageing in place has contributed to this growth, especially as the baby boomer cohort ages, internal migration - including retirement migration - is another significant driver of growth in this region.
At the same time, all cohorts from 0-55 years recorded a decline in their proportion of the population. This was particularly strong for children aged 0-14 years. In 2010, there were 397 people in this age group, representing 16.3% of the population. The equivalent figures in 2020 were 276 and 11.1%. This clearly impacts the demand for early years services, school education and sporting infrastructure in Tasman Council.
Brighton Council has a younger age profile
Brighton Council is located on Hobart's outer northern fringe. It includes peri-urban settlements and suburban areas with pockets of greenfield development eg Old Beach. This attracts both young families seeking new housing, as well as people who seek a rural lifestyle, within reach of services and Hobart's employment market. Brighton Council recorded an average annual growth rate of 1.5% between 2010 and 2020, well above the state average.
The age structure of Brighton Council is shown in the graph below. Clearly, there are significant differences when compared to Tasman Council. The age structure is typical of an outer suburban area, with a larger proportion of children and young adults. In 2010, the population of 0-14 year olds was 4,030, representing 25.9% of the population. Modest growth over the decade resulted in a slight increase to 4,152 persons in 2020, but the proportion fell to 22.9%. Still significant, particularly in terms of the level of demand for services such as schools, but it also reflects the ageing of the Brighton Council population over the ten years.
Brighton Council recorded significant growth of persons aged 60-79 years between 2010 and 2020. Much of this is attributable to ageing in place - note this cohort represents the bulk of baby boomers who are moving through the age spectrum. In 2010, there were 1,842 persons in this age group, and they comprised 11.8% of the population. By 2020, this had increased by almost two-thirds to 3,054, or 16.9% of the population. This cohort is diverse, comprising people still in the workforce, but an increasing number of retirees. The implications for planners in terms of service provision are intriguing as they need to balance the needs of young people with a rapidly increasing cohort of older persons who demand very different services.
Summary
Tasmania has a median age of 42.3 years, the highest of all states and territories in Australia. The median age varies considerably across the state, ranging from 34.9 years in Brighton to 57.1 years in Tasman. There are five LGAs in Tasmania where the median age exceeds 50 years, but just four where the median age is under 40 years. The age structures of Tasman and Brighton Councils, particularly with regard to how they change over time, provides the evidence base to plan services that are based on age.
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