Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?
Rebased population estimates
Population estimates for each quarter have been rebased and revised from the September 2016 quarter onwards. At June 2021, there was an adjustment of approximately 50,000 (0.2%) to the total population. This reflects new information made available as a result of the 2021 Census, the post enumeration survey, and other demographic data. The previous population estimate for Australia was 25.738 million, but this was adjusted to 25.688 million. There are different rates of adjustment in each state and territory depending on the Census results and other demographic data. The populations of NSW and Victoria were revised downwards by 94,840 and 101,030 respectively. In contrast the population of Western Australia was revised upwards by 67,610 persons.
What is Australia's population?
This release of data also contained population estimates up to December 2021. Australia's population was 25.77 million, an increase of 0.5% (127,950 people) over the previous twelve months. Natural increase continues to drive population growth, with net overseas migration (NOM) still negative for the twelve month period (-3,600). However, from November 2021 international border controls were relaxed, resulting in an increase in people entering the country. As a result, NOM was 63,630 in the December quarter. This was the highest quarterly gain since the beginning of the pandemic.
The chart below shows the components of population change from 1982 onwards. The impact of the international border closure is clear to see, but there is a small uptick in 2021 due to the changes described in the previous paragraph. The international border was fully reopened in February 2022, so it's expected that NOM will continue to increase. The March quarter traditionally records higher NOM, due to the arrival of international students to coincide with the start of the academic year.
Population trends in Australia's states and territories
Queensland was the fastest growing state in 2021, recording a growth rate of 1.4%. This was followed by Western Australia with a growth rate of 1.1%. Both these states grew at more than twice the national average of 0.5%. At the other end of the scale, Victoria's annual growth rate was -0.1%. It was the only state to record a decline, though the growth rates of both NSW and the Northern Territory (NT) were very modest (0.1%).
In 2021, the population of NSW increased by 11,240 people to reach a population of just under 8.1 million. NSW has been characterised by very modest growth over the last two years. The growth rate in 2020 and 2021 was just 0.1%. Despite the closure of the international border, NSW continued to record more overseas arrivals than departures, and is the main reason why the state did not record a decline in population. The reopening of the international border should see NSW population growth increase. This is because the state traditionally receives the largest proportion of overseas migrants.
NSW has long recorded a loss of population through net interstate migration and 2021 was no exception. In fact ,the net loss increased considerably, reaching -35,340. This was the largest loss in a calendar year since the early 2000s. In 2002 and 2003 the net loss of people interstate exceeded 30,000, but these amounts are still short of the -42,480 net loss recorded in 1989. Just under half of people leaving NSW move to Queensland.
The changes in Victoria's population growth patterns have been well documented. In 2021, the state recorded a small loss of population (-3,520, or -0.1%) to reach a population of 6.56 million. People left Victoria for overseas, and also other parts of Australia, in a complete reversal of trends that had been sustained for the better part of a decade. Net interstate migration in 2021 increased to -19,390, numbers that were last seen in the mid 1990s. Most Victorians move to NSW or Queensland, with the balance tipping in favour of Queensland during 2021.
Although Victoria's population declined when measured annually, the Dec 2021 quarter showed an increase in the population. This was largely due to a gain of people from overseas. The quarterly growth was 13,470, and comes after six quarters of negative growth. This is likely to continue into 2022 but net interstate migration will temper the overall growth rate if current trends continue.
Queensland has lead the way on population growth over the last two years, driven by higher volumes of net interstate migration. In 2021, Queensland gained more than 50,000 people from other parts of Australia - the highest volume recorded since the early 1970s. An additional 73,690 people called Queensland home in 2021, and at the end of the year the population was 5.27 million. If these trends continue, and levels of net overseas migration start to return to pre-pandemic levels, we could see growth rates similar to that recorded in the late 2000s (the state grew by more than 115,000 people in 2008).
In the last two years both South Australia (SA) and Western Australia (WA) have recorded a gain in population through interstate migration. This trend had been some time coming in WA, with net interstate migration losses declining since 2016. In 2020, WA recorded net interstate migration gain of 2,140, and increased to 9,290 in 2021. This increase occurred despite the state having some of the tightest border restrictions in the country.
The gain in South Australia is a marked shift from previous trends, as the state has traditionally lost people to other parts of Australia. The gains are small - in both 2020 and 2021 it was less than 1,000 people. But even when this is compared to 2019, when the net loss was -3,860, it's clear to see that this is a new trend in South Australia. Whether it's sustained in a post pandemic demographic landscape remains to be seen.
In recent years, population change in the NT has been variable, with some periods of decline. Much of the variability is driven by changes in the level of migration, particularly interstate. The NT has lost population to other parts of Australia since 2009. In 2018, the loss exceeded 4,200 persons, and contributed to a decline in the overall population. In 2020, the loss was tempered somewhat (-1,670), but it increased again in 2021 to -3,420. Queensland was the main destination for about one third of people leaving the NT in 2021. The population of the NT has been tantalisingly close to 250,000 since the September 2020 quarter, but it may finally reach that milestone now that the international border is open.
Summary
Australia's population was rebased as a result of the 2021 Census results, with a adjustment of around 50,000 people (0.2%) to the previous estimate. Population estimates at December 2021 show that the population of Australia is 25.77 million, an increase of 0.5% on the previous year. Queensland was the fastest growing state in 2021 (1.4%), whereas population growth was negative in Victoria (-0.1%). The reopening of Australia's international border in February 2022 is likely to see another shift in demographic trends, as net overseas migration will likely contribute to growth across the country.
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