Well not 27 million exactly, but by the time you read this blog, Australia's population will have easily surpassed this milestone. At Dec 2023, Australia's population was 26.97 million with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This strong growth was driven by a high level of net overseas migration, comprising 84% of the total growth. Read on to find out more about current demographic trends in Australia.
Record population growth
The volume of population change in 2023 was a whopping 651,200 people - a new record. This obliterated the previous mark of 544,220 set in 2022. This level of population change is unprecedented in Australian history, and is far above the average level recorded in the 2010s (about 365,000 per year).
The 2023 growth rate of 2.5% is the highest recorded since the early 1960s. At that time, population change responded to a higher fertility rate as well as overseas migration. In 2023, net overseas migration (NOM) is responsible for the bulk of population growth in Australia. Since 2000, the growth rate has exceeded 2% on only four occasions - the other years being 2008, 2009 and 2022. These years also coincide with a higher volume of NOM.
Overseas migration is back with a bang
The chart below shows the components of population change in Australia since 1982. It's clear to see that the volume of NOM varies considerably, and this is certainly the case in the last few years. During the pandemic, border closures and other COVID restrictions resulted in negative NOM. In 2020, NOM was -4,960, and this rebounded slightly to 6,870 in 2021.
With the reopening of the Australian border to non-citizens in early 2022, the level of overseas migration increased very rapidly. During the pandemic years many demographers thought the recovery would be much slower, but the sharp rebound has surpassed all expectations. A few years ago I was writing about how migration fell off a cliff, but the speed of recovery seems to be the reverse of that. Temporary visas, particularly those for international students, have driven much of this growth.
Notably, this is not a situation confined to Australia. Many other countries are also recording higher volumes of overseas migration as people move around again after two years or so of restrictions.
Natural increase is declining
Natural increase (sometimes called natural change) is the difference between the number of births and deaths. Changes in the level of natural increase are incremental, as birth and death trends are slower to change. However there have been some critical shifts in the last few years.
In 2023, natural increase in Australia was 103,950. This was the lowest level recorded since the late 1940s, when the first baby boomers were born. The graph above shows a slow downward trend, which has picked up speed in the last two years. This is due to a lower number of births, and a higher number of deaths.
The number of births registered in Australia was 287,060, a 5% decline on the 303,000 recorded in 2022. However the number of deaths increased sharply after 2020, reaching a peak of 191,930 in 2022. This coincided with an increase in COVID related deaths, but mention must also be made of Australia's ageing population and the large baby boomer cohort who will contribute to an increased number of deaths in future years.
States and Territories
Western Australia recorded the highest growth rate in 2023 (3.3%), followed by Victoria (2.8%), Queensland (2.6%) and NSW (2.3%). Victoria just pipped NSW to record the highest volume of growth (186,500). The strong growth recorded in Victoria stands in stark contrast to the pandemic years when the state recorded a loss of population. It's likely that Victoria's population will reach 7 million in mid 2024 if this rapid growth continues.
At the other end of the spectrum, Tasmania recorded a modest growth rate of 0.4%. This is in stark contrast to the period 2018-2021, when Tasmania was growing at a rate exceeding the Australian figure. This is due to a reversal of the interstate migration gains that influenced that growth. Tasmania now loses people to other parts of Australia, and furthermore, has also recorded a sharp decline in the level of natural increase.
Concluding remarks
The ABS releases population estimates for Australia, states and territories on a quarterly basis. The March quarter data often shows an increase in NOM, due to overseas students arriving in Australia at the beginning of the academic year. This will continue to spark debates about the high levels of NOM, and the demand for housing.
The declining level of natural increase is intriguing. The explanatory notes that accompany the release of population estimates point to delays with birth registrations, particularly in Victoria This may explain some of the decline, but it's difficult to confirm until the ABS receives all relevant data and revises it accordingly. As with many statistics - watch this space.
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