The photo below provides a visual example of the new and old Laverton. The new two storey townhouses are on the left, and the older house on the right. Note the increase in scale and density of the new townhouses compared to the older standalone house.
History of Laverton
Laverton is located in Melbourne's western suburbs, about 20km from the CBD. A RAAF base was constructed in the 1920s with associated housing for staff and families, but urban development primarily occurred in the 1950s and 1960s. Most of this was public housing - Laverton is an example of the larger public housing estates constructed on what was then the urban fringe. The settlement pattern was typical of the era, with separate houses on larger blocks resulting in low population densities. The population of Laverton increased as housing development continued through the 1960s. At the 1961 Census, the population was more than 4,200 persons. Typical of new suburbs, Laverton had a young age profile.
Laverton population 1991 and 2016
At the 1991 Census, Laverton's population (enumerated) was 4,991, but this had declined to 4,491 by 1996. The population continued to decline, levelling out at 4,285 in 2006. Since that time the population has increased and reached 5,008 in 2016.
At the same time Laverton's population has matured. The graph below shows the age structure in 1991 and 2016, based on the enumerated count from the Census. Over the 25 years, the proportion of children and young adults (0-24 years) declined from 46% of the population to 31%. Over the same period there was an increase in the proportion of middle aged and elderly persons (40 years and over) from 26% to 36% of the population.
This pattern of population decline and ageing is typical of suburbs moving through the life cycle, from younger to older families, with an maturing age profile. However there was also an upward shift in the proportion of 25-34 year olds between 1991 and 2016. Closer examination of the data reveals that much of this has occurred since 2006. This indicates the Laverton is undergoing a cycle of suburban regeneration, whereby older and smaller households start to make way for younger households and families. This explains part of the population increase since 2006.
Recent housing trends in Laverton
The houses built in the 1950s and 1960s have also aged over time and many are ripe for redevelopment. In the last 2-3 years many older homes have been demolished and replaced with townhouses and villa units. The larger block sizes, declining quality of the housing stock, along with good transport links into central Melbourne, facilitate this type of development. An examination of planning applications on Hobsons Bay City Council's website indicates that since the beginning of 2016, there have been 91 applications for new dwellings on existing blocks. If all these were built, it would result in 287 dwellings. Note however on the assumption that there is an existing dwelling on these lots, this would achieve a yield of 196 dwellings.
The map below shows the distribution of these planning applications in Laverton over the period 2016-2018.
There is no clear spatial pattern with applications spread across the suburb. This is unsurprising given the incremental nature of infill development whereby individual parcels are redeveloped as they become available. Contemporary strategic planning policies encourage more development around train stations and other transport nodes, but this has not occurred in Laverton. Just under half of the planning applications between 2016 and 2018 were located south of the Laverton Creek, much of which is within one kilometre, or approximately 10-15 minutes walk from the station.
The table included with the map shows that 2016 was the peak year for planning applications, with 47 separate applications resulting in 155 dwellings. There were 30 applications in 2017, and to date in 2018 there have been 14, which suggests a slight decline if trends persist to the end of the year.
To illustrate the impact of infill development, these recent trends can be compared with historical data. Between 1991 and 2016, there were an additional 275 dwellings added to the stock in Laverton. Around half of this increase was recorded between 2011 and 2016, when infill development started to become more prominent. Already in the two and a half years to June 2018, the number of planning applications indicates potential for 287 dwellings, with an indicative yield of 196 dwellings if all applications are realised. Furthermore, the infill data presented here does not include a small number of larger projects as they were approved prior to 2016 eg 13 townhouses at 64 Bladin Street, so the likely yield is higher. If these trends persist then the dwelling growth between 2016 and 2021 is highly likely to exceed that recorded between 2011 and 2016.
The future of infill in Laverton
High levels of infill cannot go on forever. The data presented above shows that the number of applications received in 2017 and year to date in 2018 is lower than the 2016 figure. There is a finite amount of lots available for development, and infill is incremental, relying on the decisions of property owners. Furthermore, not every block will be redeveloped and this reflects factors such as financial and planning constraints.
Summary
Laverton is a great example of a suburb developed in the 1950s and 1960s that has matured over time and is currently experiencing a wave of suburban regeneration. This is illustrated through the impact of infill development which has become more prominent throughout the suburb over the last 10 years. Older homes on larger blocks are ripe for redevelopment, changing the settlement pattern, increasing housing densities and encouraging a new generation of young families to move to the area. The evidence for this is shown through the changing age profile (increase in 25-34 year olds, who are forming families) and increase in dwelling stock.
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