Birth numbers in Australia remain high

Last week the ABS released its annual births publication.  This is an important demographic release as it not only contains data on the number of births, but also where they occur and to whom.  Despite a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) over the course of this decade, birth numbers/registrations remain high.  What trends do the latest data reveal?

Australia has some of the biggest houses in the world

It's often said that Australia builds some of the largest houses in the world.  In the second half of the twentieth century the growth of suburbs dominated by separate houses on large blocks has contributed to urban sprawl.  In many ways it's ironic that although contemporary planning policies seek to address these issues eg through smaller block sizes on the urban fringe and increased densities in established areas, house sizes remain large.  What data illustrates these trends?

The young and the old - how age structures differ across NSW

Recently I published a blog that looked at the importance of considering age alongside other social variables in order to give it more context.  This blog will continue the age theme, but look at examples of different age structures across NSW.  The data is sourced from the ABS release Regional Population by age and sex (ABS Cat. no. 3235.0) and as such uses the 2017 ERP (Estimated Resident Population - the official figure) rather than the Census figure.

Yorke Peninsula population trends

This week I'm taking a case study approach in my blog by focussing on South Australia's Yorke Peninsula.  I recently spent a long weekend there, raising my curiosity levels with regards to its demographic characteristics.  For those unfamiliar with the region, it's the part of South Australia located to the west of Adelaide that's shaped like a boot - ie the part that looks like Italy.  The settlement pattern is dominated by agricultural landscapes with a number of small towns.  What are the key demographic trends in this part of South Australia?

Who is moving to Tasmania?

With the current focus on immigration and strong population growth in Sydney and Melbourne, the resurgence of Tasmania and its demographic fortunes tend to be overlooked.  The "Apple Isle" has been recording modest growth for many years, and is ageing faster than other parts of Australia.  Just a few short years ago the demographic challenges associated with an ageing population and out-migration of young adults were the reality.  Since 2011, Tasmania's rate and volume of growth have increased.  Read on to find out more about the drivers behind this trend.

Interstate migration trends in Australia

Last week the ABS released Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication that contains population data for the States and Territories of Australia.  Australia's population continues to grow strongly, but media reports associated with this release focused on Queensland regaining its place as the State with the highest net interstate migration gain.  But is this the whole story?  Read on to find out.

Age is just a number - but an important one

They say age is just a number, but in the demographic world it's more than that.  The age structure explains a lot about how populations grow and change.  Furthermore, the story around many social indicators are enhanced when age is considered.  This blog will look at some of the social data released via the Census, and how combining these with age can help us understand how our communities are changing.

Australia's regional cities - which ones are growing?

High levels of population growth, particularly through overseas migration, have well and truly put the spotlight on population issues.  But population growth is uneven, and many of the problems are seen through the lens of people stuck in traffic jams in Sydney and Melbourne.  The new Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has flagged the potential for policies whereby new migrants are required to live in regional areas.  There have also been calls for greater incentives to encourage people and jobs to decentralise, especially to our regional cities.  This blog looks at recent growth trends in Australia's regional cities and considers the issue of whether or not they can alleviate growth pressures in our major cities by increasing their own population growth.

When will Melbourne reach 5 million people?

Recently The Age published an article claiming that Melbourne's population was about to hit 5 million - specifically on 1 September 2018.  Naturally this intrigued me, and I wondered how this conclusion was reached.  My recent blog on population milestones did not even discuss Melbourne reaching this mark in 2017 or 2018.  The article in The Age was more about the history of Melbourne and did not elaborate on how this was calculated other than to suggest it was on the basis of new estimates from the ABS.  Did Melbourne's population reach 5 million?  Let's have a look at the evidence.

Midland infill - what happens now?

I recently wrote a blog about the role of infill development in the established parts of Australian cities.  The example of Laverton, in Melbourne's western suburbs was used.  It showed that despite the incremental nature of infill development, it plays an important role in adding to the dwelling stock.  However the supply of land available for infill is constrained, both by the individual decisions of home owners and the planning scheme.  What happens when a suburb has been infilled?  This blog will consider the example of Midland, an established suburb in Perth's north east.

Australian population milestones - the significance of a number

This week the Australian population is set to hit 25 million.  Those of us who are interested in these things have been keeping a close eye on the ABS population clock as it approaches this milestone.  Every one minute and 23 seconds, another person is added to the population.  The ABS estimates that the 25 million milestone will be reached on the 7th August 2018.  In an environment where population has become a hot political topic, a number of other population milestones have been overlooked.  While 25 million people is a significant milestone, it's the dynamics of population change and where people live that inform planning policy.  For this reason, it's worth looking at other population milestones in Australia.

Australian migrants - just who are they?

There's no disputing that the ABS releases a lot of demographic data.  The quarterly publication, Australian Demographic Statistics, provides regular headline numbers.  These are the ones found splashed across the front page of newspapers and fuelling debate about an appropriate level of population growth in Australia.  But it's the annual releases of data which provide more detailed insights into how the population is growing and changing.  Last week the ABS released Migration Australia (Cat. no. 3412.0).  Given that migration is the topic de jour, it's worth looking at what this data tells us.

Fertility rates in Melbourne - where are people having babies?

There's little doubt that Australia is currently experiencing rapid rates of population growth, but much of the focus has been on immigration.  However populations grow in two main ways - through net migration and natural increase ie the difference between births and deaths.  In recent years the number of births in Australia has exceeded 300,000 per annum, with the total fertility rate (TFR) remaining somewhat stable.  While these headline figures provide a national perspective, much of the devil is in the spatial details - so to speak.

Australia at 25 million - how did we get here?

Happy World Population Day!  On this day when we focus on all things population, why not have a look at the history of Australia's population since 1788.  There's no doubt that Australia is recording strong population growth in the current era, and the ABS estimates that Australia reach a population of 25 million in the coming weeks.  But how did we get here, and when did we reach other population milestones in the past?

Migration to Australia - the global context

There's little doubt that Australia's population growth is a hot topic in the media.  The latest data indicates an annual population growth rate of 1.6%, with around 62% of population growth attributable to net overseas migration.  In 2017, Australia's net migration intake was 240,300.  But how does this compare internationally?  The recent release of the International Migration Outlook by the OECD provides an opportunity to examine the most recent data for the 35 member countries.

Laverton housing trends - the role of infill

In established suburbs of Australian cities, infill development is a often major source of new housing supply.  Infill development is incremental and is typically takes the form of older, inferior stock on larger blocks being demolished and replaced with townhouses, villas and the like.  In some suburbs, particularly those that developed in the immediate post war period and are close to train lines, infill development is transforming the housing supply and increasing population levels.  Laverton, in Melbourne's western suburbs, is such an example.  

Australian population growth motors along

The quarterly release of population statistics by the ABS this week confirmed that Australia continues to record strong population growth.  At the end of December 2017, Australia's population was 24.77 million.  This was an increase of 388,000 persons on the previous year, with an annual growth rate of 1.6%.  About 62% of population growth is attributable to net overseas migration and the remaining 38% to natural increase.

What states are growing strongly?

Victoria continues to record very strong population growth.  The volume of growth in 2017 was 143,400 persons, equating to a growth rate of 2.3%, the highest of all states and territories.  The ACT (2.2%) and Queensland (1.7%) also recorded growth rates above the national average. 

Population growth in NSW

The population growth rate in NSW for the year ended 2017 was 1.5%, which was slightly below the national average.  This was lower than the rate recorded in 2016 (1.7%), but still higher than the 1.4% recorded in each year 2013-2015.  Natural increase and overseas migration contribute strongly to population growth in NSW, whereas the state loses population to other parts of Australia through interstate migration.  The loss of population through interstate migration has been increasing since 2014.  

The chart below shows the components of population change in NSW - it's particularly noteworthy in showing the volatility of the migration components compared to natural increase.

The volume of net overseas migration in NSW increased each year from 2010 to 2016, tapering off slightly in 2017.  However it's clear to see from the chart that net overseas migration is extremely volatile over time as it tends to respond to economic conditions and changes in government policy.  In contrast, natural increase is relatively steady.  Between 2007 and 2012, the volume of natural increase in NSW was generally above 50,000 per annum, but had dropped back to 43,140.  This is largely attributable to a decline in the number of births, but this may be related to birth registration lags as noted by the ABS.  Watch this space because the numbers may be revised in the future.

Very low population growth in the Northern Territory

At the other end of the spectrum, the NT recorded a growth rate of just 0.2%, or 600 persons.  Of course the NT has a small population so fluctuations in the growth rate can be expected as the components of population change are relatively volatile.  The NT grows strongly through natural increase (births minus deaths) due to it's younger age structure and higher fertility rate.  However the NT tends to lose population through net interstate migration.  This is shown quite clearly in the chart below - note the difference compared to NSW, particularly with regards net overseas migration which is a small but volatile component of change in the NT.  The difference between the two shows how the components of population change affect regions differently.

The NT last recorded a net gain from interstate migration in 2009, and overseas migration gains have been extremely volatile for the last decade, peaking in 2012.  The increased loss of population through interstate migration was a major reason for the very modest growth rate.

Australia at 25 million

The ABS says that at current levels of growth, Australia's population will reach 25 million in August 2018.  It's been 13 years since we hit 20 million, and it's almost 60 years since we were a very small nation of just 10 million persons.  

This is not the only milestone approaching.  At the end of 2017, the populations of NSW and Queensland were 7.92 million and 4.97 million respectively.  Again, at current levels of growth, these states will reach the respective milestone of 8 and 5 million persons before the end of 2018.  

Summary

Australia recorded a population growth rate of 1.6% for the year ended December 2017, however growth rates differ widely across the country.  Victoria recorded the highest growth rate (2.3%), compared to the lowest rate of 0.2% in the Northern Territory.  The components of population change hold the key to understanding why growth rates differ.  Natural increase tends to be relatively stable, whereas interstate and especially overseas migration is quite volatile.  This is shown by the different experiences of NSW and the Northern Territory.  Typically NSW gains population through overseas migration, but loses population to other parts of Australia.  Contrast this with the Northern Territory, where natural increase is the main contributor to population growth, and the migration components show great volatility over time.

Are migrants to blame for rapid population growth ?

Barely a day goes by without some comment in the media about the problems associated with high levels of immigration.  Overseas migrants are blamed for a range of problems, from traffic congestion to housing affordability and beyond.  There's no doubting that Australia's population is growing rapidly, but less attention is paid to how it is growing.  The ABS has recently changed the way they calculate population growth for sub-state geographies to a component based model.  This provides the opportunity to have a closer look at how the population is growing and changing at smaller areas of geography.

What are the components of population change?

People are born, they die, and they move around - this is how populations grow and decline, and are known as the components of population change.  The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is called natural increase.  In Australia there are more births than deaths so the population will increase in the absence of any migration.  The reverse can also be true ie more deaths than births, and this is termed natural decrease.  In some parts of Australia this plays a significant role in population change.

Migration is the other component of population change, and can be considered in terms of interstate migration and overseas migration.  Interstate migration is between the states and territories and for Australia sums up to zero.  Overseas migration is between Australia and other countries - curiously in the debate over the level of overseas migration it's often forgotten that people do move out of Australia, so effectively media comments are about net overseas migration.

How is Australia's population growing?

In 2016-17 Australia's population grew by 388,120 persons - 124,710 through natural increase (37%) and 245,410 through net overseas migration (63%).  Overseas migrants overwhelmingly settle in NSW and Victoria (76%).  So yes it's true to say that net overseas migration is playing a major role in the rapidity of population growth, but clearly it isn't the only factor.

It is important to consider that migration is an extremely volatile component of population change.  Overseas migration in particular is subject to changes in government policy, and it's also reliant on economic conditions.  When jobs are plentiful levels of overseas migration increase simply because there are jobs available - you only have to consider the impact of the mining boom in Western Australia to see how this plays out demographically.  

On the other hand, natural increase is far more stable over time as changes in birth and death rates are influenced by societal change and health, which do not exhibit the same volatility over time.  Therefore, the contribution that each component makes to total population change is strongly influenced by the level of overseas migration.

How is Melbourne's population growing?

The new methodology employed by the ABS to calculate sub-state population growth provides an opportunity to see how the different components of change play out spatially.  Recently I looked at population growth in Victoria, observing that most growth was occurring in Melbourne.  Let's take that analysis a little further to look at the components of population change in Melbourne's LGAs.

Metropolitan Melbourne (defined by the 31 LGAs in the metropolitan area) grew by 123,360 persons in 2016-17.  Overseas migration comprised almost 65% of this total, natural increase 29% and interstate migration 7%.  Of all the growth attributable to overseas migration in Victoria in 2016-17, around 92% settled in Greater Melbourne.  

The map below shows the rate of population change through overseas migration for each LGA in metropolitan Melbourne.  Effectively this is what the growth rate would be if the only component of change was overseas migration.  All LGAs recorded population growth through overseas migration, but the spatial pattern was different to that of total population growth.

The City of Melbourne clearly stands out, with an overseas migration growth rate of 6.3% - by far the strongest in metropolitan Melbourne.  In numerical terms, this equated to 9,310 persons - around three-quarters of total population growth.  It is likely that this is related to the high number of international students residing in and around the city.  This is also likely to explain the higher overseas migration growth rate in Monash (3.5%).  2016 data from the Department of Education and Training indicates that over 33,000 international students were enrolled at the University of Melbourne and RMIT, both of whom have their main campus in the city.  A further 18,500 were enrolled at Monash University.  Of course international students are not the only overseas migrants but these enrolment statistics shed light on the scale of the contribution they make to population growth in our cities.

Interestingly, there was not a strong spatial relationship between the overseas migration rate and the rapidly growing LGAs on the urban fringe.  While overseas migration does play a role in population growth in these areas, they are more likely to grow through natural increase and interstate migration.  For instance, the City of Wyndham grew by 6.1% in 2016-17, but the overseas migration growth rate was 2.1%, the highest of the urban fringe LGAs.  This compares with 2.3% for interstate migration and 1.7% for natural increase.  

The lowest overseas migration rate (0.4%) was recorded in the outer urban LGAs of Mornington Peninsula and Yarra Ranges.  Both LGAs recorded modest growth overall, but natural increase (0.6%) was the more important in Yarra Ranges.  On the other hand, Mornington Peninsula recorded the lowest natural increase growth rate (0.05%) in metropolitan Melbourne, influenced no doubt by the older age profile in this LGA ie more deaths.

Summary

Overseas migration is the most volatile of the components of population change, responding to government policy and economic conditions.  The current high levels of population growth show some relationship with higher levels of overseas migration at the macro geographic level, but this doesn't translate well at the small scale.  Currently 65% of population growth in metropolitan Melbourne is attributable to overseas migration, but this varies widely by LGA.  The strongest overseas migration growth rate was recorded in the City of Melbourne, and the lowest in Yarra Ranges and Mornington Peninsula.  

Population growth and the mining industry in Western Australia

A friend of mine recently commented about the downturn in the Western Australian economy and how slowly the population was growing.  In 2016-17, Western Australia's population grew by 0.8%, which was half that of the national average.  This is a noticeable turnaround from just a few short years ago, when the demand for labour on mining projects helped drive population growth to the highest levels in the country.  Population growth and change in Western Australia has longed been tied to ebbs and flows in the mining sector.  How has this played out over time?

Population growth in Western Australia, 1901-2017

The chart below shows the population of Western Australia (WA) between 1901 and 2017.  As expected over a 116 year period, there is some volatility in the level of growth.  Most notably, population growth has surged during periods of strong economic growth and mining booms.

The graph shows that since the end of WW2 the population of WA has grown dramatically, with faster periods of growth roughly correlating with mining booms in the 1960s, 1980s and more recently in the 2000s.  During the 1960s, when iron-ore production increased, population growth in WA averaged around 3.5% per annum.  Growth peaked at 4.3% in 1968-69, and in 1970-71 the population of WA reached 1 million persons.  

Population growth in WA was above the national average from 1971 through to 2013.  There were stronger periods of growth during the 1980s mining boom, particularly in the late 1980s when the Australian economy was quite strong and overseas migration was relatively high.  In 2004-05, the WA population reached 2 million.  It took just over 30 years to reach the second million compared to over 140 years to reach the first.

From 2006, population growth in WA surged once again as mining projects in the north of the state opened up significant opportunities for employment during their construction phase.  Though a significant proportion of the workforce was "fly-in fly out" (or FIFO), the data clearly shows that population growth from interstate and overseas migration increased.  This suggests that despite the high mobility of the workforce that some did relocate to WA.  Between 2006 and 2013, the population growth rate was at 2.0% per annum or higher, peaking at 3.2% in 2008-09.

The key difference between the most recent mining boom and those in the past has been the volume of growth, even though the rate of growth is similar.  Between 2006 and 2016, more than 508,000 people were added to the population.  This compares with around 336,000 people in the ten years to 1991, the period covering the boom years of the 1980s.  Between 2007 and 2013 the volume of growth was more than 50,000 per annum, far exceeding the peak of 43,270 persons added to the population in 1987-88.

Dominance of Perth

The settlement pattern in Australia has been described as one with primate cities, ie where the largest city is many times larger than the next sized city.  This is certainly characteristic of WA.  In 2016, the population of Greater Perth was 2.02 million, compared to the 74,100 recorded for the Bunbury Urban Area (which also includes surrounding suburbs and towns) - more than 27 times larger!

Perth has been the capital of WA since 1829, but it hasn't always dominated the population of the state.  This is a legacy of the rural settlement and economy of Australia, with historically larger populations in rural areas responding to labour requirements on farms and in country towns.  As the economy has shifted over time, Perth's share of the WA population has continued to increase - even accounting for changes in boundaries.  In 1901, Perth comprised 37% of the WA population, and by the 1940s this had reached 50%.  As the need for labour on farms declined, and the economy became more focussed on urban areas through jobs in manufacturing and service industries, Perth's share of the WA population continued to increase.  This has occurred despite the mining booms described above which did direct a lot of investment into remote mining areas, and towns such as Karratha and Newman were established.  By the early 1990s Greater Perth's share of WA's population reached 75%, and this had reached 79% by 2016.

Summary

WA's population has been below the national average since 2014, coinciding with reduced labour requirements in the mining sector.  History shows that population growth in WA does have some correlation with mining booms, with stronger growth in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s.  As the state capital, Perth has always been the largest city, and is many times larger than Bunbury.  With a 2016 population of just over 2 million, Perth now comprises 79% of the WA population. 

Population growth in Victoria - from slow growth to woah growth

Cast your mind back to the early 1990s - Australia was in the midst of the recession that we had to have, Paul Keating (who coined the phrase) was the Prime Minister, grunge ruled the music industry and there was no Internet.  Australia's population was 18.2 million, growing by around 1.1% on average in the first half of the 1990s.  Compare this with the 1.6% recorded in 2016-17, and though it may not seem like a huge difference, there's little doubt that the population discourse is now centred around the rapid growth in Australia's largest cities and the challenges this creates.  However, population growth is not spread evenly, and the state of Victoria illustrates this well.  It's a great example of a place where the population dynamics have completely turned around in the course of little more than two decades - from slow growth to woah growth. 

Population growth in Victoria during the 1990s.

The early 1990s recession hit Victoria hard both economically and socially.  Job losses in the manufacturing sector and crises in the banking sector had ramifications through the economy.  The unemployment rate was above 10% from June 1991 to October 1994.  Between 1991-96, the population growth rate averaged 0.5%.  In the 12 months ended June 1994, just 10,200 people were added to the population.  This was driven by a high level of migration out of the State, reaching almost 30,000.  To put this in perspective, that is the equivalent of losing a town around the size of Warrnambool.  The economy slowly recovered in the second half of the decade and population growth increased, averaging 1.0% over the period 1996-2001.

Population growth in Victoria, 2016-17

Twenty or so years later it's a completely different picture.  In 2016-17, Victoria was by far and away the fastest growing State in Australia, recording growth of 2.3% in 2016-17, or more than 144,300 people.  Growth was driven by both migration from overseas and interstate, as well as natural increase (births minus deaths).  About 60% of growth was attributable to net overseas migration.  That Victoria gained more than 17,000 people from other parts of Australia is a huge turnaround for a state that has traditionally lost population through interstate migration.  In fact, the gain of 17,100 was only just surpassed by Queensland's gain of 17,430 - Queensland of course a state that has a long tradition of gaining population through interstate migration.

Where is population growth occurring in Victoria?

Population growth in Victoria is spatially concentrated and generally reflects long standing trends.  Greater Melbourne grew by 2.7% during 2016-17, representing more than 125,000 people or 86% of Victoria's total population growth.  At June 2017 Melbourne's population was 4,850,740 and at the current rate of growth the 5 million milestone will likely be hit before the decade is over.

The map below shows the population growth rate by LGA in Victoria during 2016-17.  Areas with darker blue shading grew strongly, whereas those shaded red lost population over that time.

The LGA that recorded the highest growth rate in Victoria was the City of Melbourne (8.1%), or almost 12,000 people.  This reflects the construction of a large number of apartment buildings in and around the city, and also the high level of overseas migration.  Many overseas migrants are students and other young people who move to the city and surrounds to access education, employment and lifestyle opportunities.  

Other strong growing LGAs (more than 4%) were located on the Melbourne metropolitan fringe and this reflects trends that have been occurring for a number of years.  Wyndham continues its rapid growth, recording a growth rate of 6.1%, or 13,810 persons to reach a population of 241,900.  The urban footprint of Wyndham continues to expand north and west, with several new housing estates under construction in Tarneit and Truganina.  Cardinia and Melton also grew strongly (both 5.0%), followed by Casey (4.4%) and Hume (4.1%).  Casey is Victoria's largest LGA in terms of population size, and its growth rate of 4.4% represents an increase of 13,860 persons - slightly more than faster growing Wyndham.

The fastest growing LGAs in regional Victoria were generally located around the Melbourne metropolitan perimeter or along the coast.  Surf Coast, located south west of Geelong and incorporating rapidly growing towns such as Torquay, grew by 2.9%.  Much of this growth is located in the northern part of the Shire, adjacent to the Geelong metropolitan area and with good access to that job market.  Baw Baw and Mitchell both grew by 2.8%, both areas containing greenfield development opportunities that attract families seeking relatively affordable housing in a semi-rural environment but with access to the Melbourne employment market.

What areas are losing population?

There were no LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne that lost population in 2016-17.  Frankston, Knox and Nillumbik all grew by less than 1%.  All are established suburban areas with few opportunities for larger greenfield developments, and Nillumbik's development is also constrained by topographical and environmental issues.  

It's a different story in regional Victoria but the patterns of population change reflect long standing trends across rural areas of Australia.  Most LGAs in western and north western Victoria lost population in 2016-17, particularly those in dryland agricultural areas.  Of the 13 LGAs that recorded population loss, just two were located elsewhere in Victoria (Towong and Benalla).  Some of these LGAs have very small populations and so small shifts in population trends can have a disproportionate impact when expressed as a percentage.  For instance, the -1.3% decline in Buloke Shire represents 79 people.  The main driver of population loss in these areas is internal migration (more people moving out than in) and natural decrease (more deaths than births).

Summary

Victoria's population is growing strongly, but it is not spread equally across the State.  Growth is concentrated in metropolitan Melbourne, particularly in the CBD and surrounds, and on the urban fringe.  It is driven by migration from interstate and overseas, as well as natural increase.  In regional Victoria, LGAs in close proximity to Melbourne are also growing strongly, but those in dryland farming areas continue to lose population, primarily through out migration and natural decrease.

Welcome!

Welcome to The Demog Blog!  If you've found me - great - because I love talking about population issues and how they impact on Australia's cities and regions.  I particularly love using population and other data to dispel or confirm trends.

Population is a topical issue in Australia at present, with high levels of growth, particularly in our cities.  It's important as a society that we understand the implications of population change, whether it be growth or decline.  The future of our cities and regions depends on good planning and effective use of population data.  That's why I stress the importance of looking at the evidence base when talking about population change - everything else is just an opinion.

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