Australian population milestones - the significance of a number

This week the Australian population is set to hit 25 million.  Those of us who are interested in these things have been keeping a close eye on the ABS population clock as it approaches this milestone.  Every one minute and 23 seconds, another person is added to the population.  The ABS estimates that the 25 million milestone will be reached on the 7th August 2018.  In an environment where population has become a hot political topic, a number of other population milestones have been overlooked.  While 25 million people is a significant milestone, it's the dynamics of population change and where people live that inform planning policy.  For this reason, it's worth looking at other population milestones in Australia.

NSW and Queensland

At December 2017, the population of NSW was 7.92 million, and that of Queensland was 4.97 million.  Based on the volume of growth recorded through 2017, it's likely that the population of these States will reach the milestones of 8 million and 5 million respectively during 2018.

Similar to the ABS, the Queensland Government Statistician's Office produces a population clock.  The 5 million mark was reached in May 2018 and was widely reported.  Queensland's population growth has historically been influenced by higher levels of net interstate migration.  However in recent years the volume of net overseas migration has been higher, marking a shift in the way the population has grown.

The 8 million milestone in NSW has received less attention.  Unfortunately the population projections prepared by the NSW Dept of Planning and Environment do not have an annual breakdown, nor is there an official population clock.  The population of NSW was around 85,000 shy of the 8 milllion mark at December 2017, and given that the population grew by more than 116,000 that year, it's likely that the 8 million milestone has already passed.

Towns and cities

In 2017, Perth (as measured by the Significant Urban Area or SUA) reached a population of 2 million.  This milestone was achieved despite lower population growth since the end of the mining boom.  Perth has grown by less than 20,000 people in the last two years, compared with peak growth of almost 59,000 persons in 2011-12.

Claisebrook Cove in East Perth, an example of inner city redevelopment.  The population of Greater Perth reached 2 million in 2017.

Greater Perth (which includes a wider area in the Perth Hills) reached 1 million people in 1984, just one year after Greater Adelaide reached this mark.  1984 was also the first year that the population of Greater Perth exceeded that of Greater Adelaide, making it Australia's fourth largest city.

Wollongong SUA (effectively the Illawarra region, as it includes Shellharbour and Kiama) recorded a population of 299,203 in 2017.  Based on the volume of growth recorded (3,534), it's likely to reach 300,000 in 2018.  Over the last decade Wollongong has increasingly diversified its economic base - it is no longer just a manufacturing city.  The development of Calderwood estate and the West Dapto release area provide relatively affordable housing opportunities for new residents and first home buyers, contributing to population growth.

Local Government Areas

Several LGAs reached population milestones in 2017, all of which were in NSW and Victoria.  These include - 

• Randwick and Glen Eira reached 150,000 persons
• Cardinia reached 100,000 persons
• Wollondilly and Baw Baw reached 50,000 persons

Wollondilly and Baw Baw Shires are possibly the most interesting examples are they are both located in the peri-urban belt around Sydney and Melbourne respectively.  Both have shown above average growth in recent years, particularly Baw Baw where the growth rate has been above 2% since 2008-09.  It reached a peak of 3.9% in 2009-10, when almost 1,600 people were added to the population.  New housing estates around Warragul and Drouin are driving much of this growth.  They offer relatively affordable housing opportunities in a semi-rural environment, but still with good access to the Melbourne employment market, particularly jobs in the south east.

2018 is likely to see more LGAs reach population milestones, including -

• Parramatta and Wyndham (250,000)
• Inner West, Monash and Wanneroo (200,000)
• Hornsby and Melton (150,000)
• Tea Tree Gully (100,000) 

These LGAs have very diverse population growth drivers.  The City of Tea Tree Gully, located in Adelaide's north east, is probably the most interesting.  This is an area that underwent its major phase of development in the 1980s and 1990s.  Typical of outer suburban areas it offered young families an affordable entry into the housing market.  It's a great example of the suburban life cycle process, whereby new suburbs grow rapidly, but then move to a phase of stagnation and even decline as the once young family households mature and children move out of home. 

Between 1991-1996, the annual average growth rate was 1.7%, but as development opportunities diminished, population growth stabilised and in the early 2000s started to decline.  Population peaked at 99,126 in 2003, and dropped to 98,315 in 2011.  Since then population growth has been modest, and reached 99,769 in 2017.  If the population grows by the same amount in 2017-18, then the 100,000 population milestone will be achieved.

Summary and concluding comments

The ABS population clock indicates that Australia will reach a population of 25 million on the 7th August 2018.  While this is a significant milestone, many others have been relatively overlooked.  These include the population of NSW reaching 8 million, that of Queensland reaching 5 million, and that of Greater Perth reaching 2 million.  The milestone of 25 million people in Australia only tells us so much - the devil is in the proverbial detail.  In terms of planning, it's more about where people live and how old they are that informs urban and regional planning policy.