It goes without saying that the impacts of COVID on population change have been profound. Not only has Australia recorded a net loss of overseas migrants but there have been changes in the age structure as a result. In 2019-20, the population of young adults in Australia declined. This blog looks at the scale of this trend and where the impact has been felt more strongly.
Australia's young adults
For the purposes of this blog, young adults are defined as those persons aged 15-24 years. This is a diverse cohort, covering a number of life stages. This includes the transition from school to higher education and/or career, and moving out of the family home. They are a highly mobile cohort who move address more frequently.
At June 2020, there were 3.204 million young adults in Australia, comprising 12.5% of the population. However, this was a decline of 44,580 over the previous year (-1.4%). All states and territories except for Western Australia recorded a loss of young adults. The decline was more pronounced in the eastern states. NSW recorded a loss of 19,570 young adults (-1.9%), followed by Victoria (-17,390 or 2.0%). There was a sharper decline of 3.7% in the ACT, but this amounted to a loss of 2,150 young adults.
From a historical perspective, a decline in the young adult population is unusual. Changes in the population of young adults are influenced by migration trends, as well as ageing in place ie the momentum of cohorts ageing over time. NOM has driven population growth in Australia in recent years, and young adults comprise a significant proportion of the net flow. The last time the young adult population declined was during the 1990s, and prior to that, in the decade following WW2.
The closure of Australia's international border has created the conditions for a decline in the young adult population. Recent population data shows that Australia recorded a net overseas migration (NOM) loss for the year ended March 2021. The chart below shows the net overseas migration gain by age for the last three calendar years.
The change in 2020 compared to previous years provides a clear indication as to the impact of the international border closure and other COVID-19 related restrictions. In 2020, NOM was just 3,250 persons, a far cry from the 247,620 recorded in 2019. All population cohorts recorded a significant decline in the volume of NOM. However there was a net loss of people aged 20-34 ie more people in this age group left Australia than arrived. Persons aged 25-29 years recorded the largest loss of more than 20,000, compared to a net gain of 30,750 in 2019. With regards young adults, 15-19 year olds recorded a net gain of 7,980 persons, but the larger loss of 20-24 year olds (-14,830) meant that the net loss of young adults was -6,850 in 2020.
The net loss of young adults is significant for a number of reasons. Economically, it impacts on the labour market and the education sector (particularly universities). Demographically, it may result in fewer births due to the lower number of females in this cohort. Young adults have a high level of household mobility, and in turn this impacts the housing market, as well as migration patterns.
In terms of the university sector, many international students have been unable to enter the country, and others have left as they are not eligible for financial support from the Australian government. Face to face learning was curtailed in 2020 as a measure to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. In 2020, there was a net loss of almost 16,000 persons with a higher education temporary visa, compared to a gain of 35,110 in 2019.
Young adults in NSW
NSW recorded the largest decline in the number of young adults in 2019-20 (-19,570, or 1.9%). The overwhelming majority of this loss was recorded in the Greater Sydney region. The map below shows the change in the population of young adults. Green shades indicate LGA where the number of young adults declined, whereas purple shows LGAs that recorded an increase.
Most LGAs in Greater Sydney recorded a decline in the number of young adults in the twelve months ended June 2020. There were eight LGAs where this exceeded 1,000 persons. Most of these were in a band from the inner south across to the outer west. The City of Sydney recorded the highest loss (-3,682), followed by Cumberland (-2,004) and Canterbury-Bankstown (-1,505). In the case of the City of Sydney, the 8.5% decline ended almost a decade of strong growth in the young adult population. The decline in 2020 is likely to be a result of the international border closure and a subsequent decline in the number of international students. Domestic students have also had their studies interrupted by lockdowns which may also have had an impact on population numbers. An example of this is students from regional areas that may normally move to Greater Sydney, but restrictions on face to face learning may have encouraged them to stay at home.
There were a small number of LGAs in Greater Sydney which recorded growth in the number of young adults, but generally, the numbers were quite small. The largest growth of young adults was recorded in The Hills Shire (503 persons), followed by Camden (403) and Wollondilly (107). Although these LGAs contain greenfield areas popular with young homebuyers, the explanation for this growth is more likely to result from ageing in place in more established suburbs, and young adults remaining in the family home.
Outside of Greater Sydney, the largest declines in the young adult population were recorded in the regional cities of Wollongong (-651) and Newcastle (-637). Lake Macquarie, which covers the southern suburbs of the Newcastle urban area also recorded a small decline (-108).
However patterns of growth and decline across regional NSW were mixed. Typically, rural areas tend to lose young adults through internal migration, but regional centres were more likely to record a decline in their population. Apart from the LGAs mentioned above, Albury, Singleton, Armidale, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga also recorded small declines in the young adult population in 2019-20. Those LGAs in regional NSW that did record growth in the young adult population did so in small numbers. The largest increase was recorded in Port Macquarie-Hastings (336), followed by Wingecarribee (247) and Tweed (216).
Summary
In 2019-20, the population of young adults (15-24 years) in Australia declined by 44,580 (-1.4%). This was the first time since the 1990s that a decline in the population of this cohort was recorded. The driver of this is net overseas migration, with more young adults leaving Australia than arriving. In NSW, the young adult population declined by 19,570 (-1.9%), and much of this was recorded in Greater Sydney.
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