Recent population trends in Australia

Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?

Life expectancy in Australia

Australia is in the fortunate position of having one of the highest life expectancies in the world. A child born in 2019 can expect to live to 82.9 years. Life expectancy is a function of many factors including mortality rates and the quality of the health care system. Although most people are familiar with the concept of life expectancy, many are not aware that there are differences across the country. This blog looks at life expectancy trends in Australia from a spatial and temporal perspective.

Fertility rate continues to fall

Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.

Steady population growth in Australia

Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication prepared by the ABS, was released just before Xmas.  This provides estimates of Australia's population, and that of the states and territories, up to June 2019.  What are the highlights of this latest release?

Australia in 2018

Last week the ABS released its quarterly demographic publication - Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0).  This contains demographic data up to December 2018, providing an overview of the Australian population for the full calendar year.  What are the highlights in this latest population data release?

Population trends in Darwin

With all the attention on issues of population growth and immigration in our largest cities, population trends in our smaller cities has tended to slip under the radar.  Recent population data from the ABS confirms that the Northern Territory (NT) recorded a decline in population in 2017-18.  This is primarily due to increasing levels of net interstate migration loss.  However, there are spatial differences across the NT, and this blog looks at population change in the Greater Darwin region in 2017-18.

Australia's population growth has slowed

Just before Christmas the ABS released its quarterly demographic publication - Australian Demographic Statistics.  This latest release provides data on population growth and change for Australia's states and territories up to June 2018.  Population, and especially migration, was a hot topic in 2018, but what do the latest numbers tell us?  Read on to find out more.

Birth numbers in Australia remain high

Last week the ABS released its annual births publication.  This is an important demographic release as it not only contains data on the number of births, but also where they occur and to whom.  Despite a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) over the course of this decade, birth numbers/registrations remain high.  What trends do the latest data reveal?

Interstate migration trends in Australia

Last week the ABS released Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication that contains population data for the States and Territories of Australia.  Australia's population continues to grow strongly, but media reports associated with this release focused on Queensland regaining its place as the State with the highest net interstate migration gain.  But is this the whole story?  Read on to find out.

Australian population growth motors along

The quarterly release of population statistics by the ABS this week confirmed that Australia continues to record strong population growth.  At the end of December 2017, Australia's population was 24.77 million.  This was an increase of 388,000 persons on the previous year, with an annual growth rate of 1.6%.  About 62% of population growth is attributable to net overseas migration and the remaining 38% to natural increase.

What states are growing strongly?

Victoria continues to record very strong population growth.  The volume of growth in 2017 was 143,400 persons, equating to a growth rate of 2.3%, the highest of all states and territories.  The ACT (2.2%) and Queensland (1.7%) also recorded growth rates above the national average. 

Population growth in NSW

The population growth rate in NSW for the year ended 2017 was 1.5%, which was slightly below the national average.  This was lower than the rate recorded in 2016 (1.7%), but still higher than the 1.4% recorded in each year 2013-2015.  Natural increase and overseas migration contribute strongly to population growth in NSW, whereas the state loses population to other parts of Australia through interstate migration.  The loss of population through interstate migration has been increasing since 2014.  

The chart below shows the components of population change in NSW - it's particularly noteworthy in showing the volatility of the migration components compared to natural increase.

The volume of net overseas migration in NSW increased each year from 2010 to 2016, tapering off slightly in 2017.  However it's clear to see from the chart that net overseas migration is extremely volatile over time as it tends to respond to economic conditions and changes in government policy.  In contrast, natural increase is relatively steady.  Between 2007 and 2012, the volume of natural increase in NSW was generally above 50,000 per annum, but had dropped back to 43,140.  This is largely attributable to a decline in the number of births, but this may be related to birth registration lags as noted by the ABS.  Watch this space because the numbers may be revised in the future.

Very low population growth in the Northern Territory

At the other end of the spectrum, the NT recorded a growth rate of just 0.2%, or 600 persons.  Of course the NT has a small population so fluctuations in the growth rate can be expected as the components of population change are relatively volatile.  The NT grows strongly through natural increase (births minus deaths) due to it's younger age structure and higher fertility rate.  However the NT tends to lose population through net interstate migration.  This is shown quite clearly in the chart below - note the difference compared to NSW, particularly with regards net overseas migration which is a small but volatile component of change in the NT.  The difference between the two shows how the components of population change affect regions differently.

The NT last recorded a net gain from interstate migration in 2009, and overseas migration gains have been extremely volatile for the last decade, peaking in 2012.  The increased loss of population through interstate migration was a major reason for the very modest growth rate.

Australia at 25 million

The ABS says that at current levels of growth, Australia's population will reach 25 million in August 2018.  It's been 13 years since we hit 20 million, and it's almost 60 years since we were a very small nation of just 10 million persons.  

This is not the only milestone approaching.  At the end of 2017, the populations of NSW and Queensland were 7.92 million and 4.97 million respectively.  Again, at current levels of growth, these states will reach the respective milestone of 8 and 5 million persons before the end of 2018.  

Summary

Australia recorded a population growth rate of 1.6% for the year ended December 2017, however growth rates differ widely across the country.  Victoria recorded the highest growth rate (2.3%), compared to the lowest rate of 0.2% in the Northern Territory.  The components of population change hold the key to understanding why growth rates differ.  Natural increase tends to be relatively stable, whereas interstate and especially overseas migration is quite volatile.  This is shown by the different experiences of NSW and the Northern Territory.  Typically NSW gains population through overseas migration, but loses population to other parts of Australia.  Contrast this with the Northern Territory, where natural increase is the main contributor to population growth, and the migration components show great volatility over time.