Population trends in Tasmania

The latest release of regional population estimates from the ABS contains a wealth of data about population change across Australia. Which areas are growing the fastest, which areas are declining, and importantly, how these areas are changing. Tasmania provides an interesting case study to delve deeper into the data. It's not that long ago that Tasmania's growth rate was relatively strong, but is this still the case? And where is the growth occurring in Tasmania?

Presentation on population trends, COVID-19 and planning

This month's blog is a little different. It consists of a presentation I delivered to University of Melbourne students on population trends, population forecasts, and the impact of COVID-19 on these. I also touched on community infrastructure planning to demonstrate how population data is used in a practical way. 

The presentation is based on an article I wrote for Planning News in August 2021, as well as a blog I wrote about the continued relevance of population forecasts in early 2022.  

Blogging wise, things will be back to normal next month. 28th June sees the release of 2021 Census data, which will provide updated data on many of the blogs I've written in the past few years.

Measuring CALD communities with Census data

I recently attended a seminar that looked at spatial patterns of a particular CALD community in Melbourne. The presenter expressed surprise at the age structure as there were very few children born in this particular country. To me, it was a classic example of "traps for young players" when analysing Census data on CALD communities. They are generally measured by birthplace, ancestry and language, but the size of the community will differ depending on the variable used. With the release of 2021 Census data later this year, it's worthwhile revisiting this topic ahead of time.

Would Australia's population grow without overseas migration?

I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.

Australia in 2019 - before the pandemic

The release of quarterly population data by the ABS last week slipped somewhat under the radar. No doubt this was partly due to the release of labour force data the same day, but possibly also because it was population data from the December 2019 quarter ie pre COVID-19. These days data that shows the impact of the pandemic is all the rage - and rightly so - but the December 2019 population data provides a useful benchmark by which to measure future impacts. Read on to find out more about Australia's population in 2019.

Most of Australia's migrants are here temporarily

Net overseas migration (NOM) is the primary driver of population growth in Australia. In 2018-19, NOM contributed to 62% of total population growth. The headline numbers catch the attention of the media and the general public, but overseas migrants are a diverse group of people. What are their characteristics? The recent release of the annual migration publication by the ABS sheds some light on these, such as the balance between permanent and temporary migration.

Recent population trends in Tasmania

An increase in Tasmania's population growth has been one of the more interesting trends in the last few years. Between 2011 and 2016, the annual average growth rate in Tasmania was just 0.2% per annum, but since 2016 it has been 1.1% per annum. Higher levels of migration, both from interstate and overseas, have been the driver of this change. But are all areas sharing in this growth? This blog will look at historical trends as well as spatial patterns of population change in Tasmania.

Steady population growth in Australia

Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication prepared by the ABS, was released just before Xmas.  This provides estimates of Australia's population, and that of the states and territories, up to June 2019.  What are the highlights of this latest release?

How accurate are population forecasts?

Population issues have become highly political in Australia, dominating headlines whenever new data is released.  In 2019, the Australian Government responded to the growing policy pressures by establishing the Centre for Population.  One of its aims is to produce more accurate population forecasts.  As someone with a background in producing population forecasts, this claim intrigued me.  Population forecasts are not predictions, they are the outcome of a set of assumptions.  In this blog I will reflect on the issues and challenges associated with population forecasting, and what options might be available in the future.

Where is the Batavia Coast?

It goes without saying that Australia's coastline is long and diverse.  Some parts have large cities, others are remote and wild.  Many parts of the coast have been given names that are designed to attract visitors to the various regions, generally based around colour, geological features and even animals.  Examples include the Sapphire Coast in southern NSW and the Limestone Coast in South Australia.  They generally don't have any formal status, rather they exist merely for tourism purposes.  This blog looks at the demographic characteristics of the Batavia Coast in Western Australia - named after a shipwreck.

Four generations of demographic change in Australia

The release of the historical population data by the ABS allows us to look at where we've come from to where we are today - with a demographic spin.  Since 1926, the Australian population has grown considerably, both in size and maturity.  Using 30 years to approximate a generation, this blog looks at three generations of change since 1926, and one generation into the future - 2046.

Population growth in NSW is deceptively strong

In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW surpassed the 8 million mark.  This milestone has been somewhat overlooked in the current discourse around the challenges associated with rapid population growth in Australia.  For the last decade, the population growth rate in NSW has been at or around the national average.  But don't let this fool you - the volume of growth has exceeded 100,000 persons per annum since 2013.  This milestone was only reached twice prior to 2000.  This blog looks beyond the growth rate to examine the dynamics of population change in NSW.

Australia in 2018

Last week the ABS released its quarterly demographic publication - Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0).  This contains demographic data up to December 2018, providing an overview of the Australian population for the full calendar year.  What are the highlights in this latest population data release?

Australia and Japan - a demographic comparison

When I travel, I like to look beyond the tourist realm.  Naturally, I'm drawn to the demographics of the country I'm in, such as the population, how it's changing, how people live, and how they get around.  I recently travelled to Japan, a country that is culturally, socially and historically very different from Australia.  But how does it compare from a demographic perspective?  Fortunately, the Statistics of Japan website (where I've sourced the statistics) is also in English, so I was able to obtain a lot of interesting data for my readers.

Melbourne versus Sydney - a long standing rivalry

The rivalry between Melbourne and Sydney has a long history.  Everything from the weather to the football is keenly debated.  But one thing remains a fact - Sydney is Australia's largest city, with a 2018 population of 5.23 million.  But has it always been this way, and what of the future?  Read on the find out more.

Population trends in Darwin

With all the attention on issues of population growth and immigration in our largest cities, population trends in our smaller cities has tended to slip under the radar.  Recent population data from the ABS confirms that the Northern Territory (NT) recorded a decline in population in 2017-18.  This is primarily due to increasing levels of net interstate migration loss.  However, there are spatial differences across the NT, and this blog looks at population change in the Greater Darwin region in 2017-18.

Hobart and Launceston - compare the pair

Tasmania's urban hierarchy is distinctive in that there are two major cities, Hobart and Launceston.  This is unusual in the Australian context as many states have a state capital that is many times larger than the next largest urban centre (urban primacy).  Both cities were established in the early 1800s.  Over the last two hundred years, despite their different histories and economic fortunes, they have grown into the major cities they are today.  From a demographic perspective, how different are Hobart and Launceston?  To paraphrase a superannuation commercial, let's "compare the pair".

Are inner city areas attracting older residents?

If I had a dollar for every time I was told that older people are downsizing in droves and leaving the suburbs for the inner city, I'd be a much richer person.  This perception has persisted despite the evidence to the contrary.  Every so often an article will appear in a newspaper that perpetuates the myth.  The most recent example appeared in the SMH and used a case study approach to illustrate how the inner suburbs are changing through in-migration of older persons, and how this might continue into the future.  While there's little doubt that the individuals in these articles did make such a move, but is really it a trend?  Let's have a look at the evidence, using inner Sydney as a case study.

Most of Australia's migrants are here temporarily

The ABS has recently released data from its Australian Census and Temporary Entrants Integrated Dataset (ACTEID) which effectively matches two datasets and provides more insight into the characteristics of migrants.  In an era where there is a lot of conjecture around the scale and composition of Australia's migration program, this type of data release is welcome as it adds to the evidence base.  So what are the key findings?  Read on to find out.

The young and the old - how age structures differ across NSW

Recently I published a blog that looked at the importance of considering age alongside other social variables in order to give it more context.  This blog will continue the age theme, but look at examples of different age structures across NSW.  The data is sourced from the ABS release Regional Population by age and sex (ABS Cat. no. 3235.0) and as such uses the 2017 ERP (Estimated Resident Population - the official figure) rather than the Census figure.