Regional population trends in Victoria

The release of regional population estimates for 2022 has been highly anticipated. This is because it's the first post-2021 Census release of population data. It covers a 12 month period when the Australian border was reopened to overseas migration after COVID related lockdowns. The state of Victoria was hit hard by COVID, with significant shifts in migration patterns marking an end to a decade or more of strong growth. What are the key demographic trends in 2021-22? Read on to find out.

The Nepalese population in Australia has doubled since 2016

In late June the ABS released the first batch of 2021 Census data. The Census provides critical information on the socio-economic characteristics of the population, which underpins the evidence base for service planning. This is the first in a series of a number of blogs highlighting important and interesting changes to the Australian demographic landscape. This blog looks at the Nepalese population in Australia.

Life expectancy in Australia

Australia is in the fortunate position of having one of the highest life expectancies in the world. A child born in 2019 can expect to live to 82.9 years. Life expectancy is a function of many factors including mortality rates and the quality of the health care system. Although most people are familiar with the concept of life expectancy, many are not aware that there are differences across the country. This blog looks at life expectancy trends in Australia from a spatial and temporal perspective.

Where did unemployment increase the most?

One of the most profound impacts of the COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns has been the loss of jobs across the economy. This has manifested itself in higher unemployment numbers and rates. Data released by the ABS through the monthly labour force survey is a leading economic indicator, but it doesn't provide the fine-grained spatial aspects to look at differences across regions. This blog uses JobSeeker and Youth Allowance data from the Department of Social Services (DSS) to look at spatial patterns of unemployment.

Would Australia's population grow without overseas migration?

I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.

Access to supermarkets in Melbourne

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, panic buying of various household items, such as toilet paper and pasta, was rampant. Social and mainstream media were full of images of people buying large amounts of toilet paper and the resulting empty supermarket shelves. Although the supply chain has largely been restored, it did pique my interest. Where I live, there are at least six major supermarkets within a 10-minute walk from my house. No toilet paper at my preferred supermarket? Not a problem, I made my way to another. Many people in Melbourne were not so lucky. How did these households manage, particularly when they didn't have the options I did?

This blog will look at the spatial distribution of supermarkets in metropolitan Melbourne. Love 'em or hate 'em, they do provide households with a vast array of good and services. However a lack of access to supermarkets may be more symptomatic of wide disadvantage, particularly in these unprecedented times.

Brisbane is one of the fastest growing cities in Australia

Every year around this time the ABS releases population estimates (ERP) for small areas.  This year the data has been somewhat lost in the coronavirus madness.  Despite the seriousness of that situation, there is still a wealth of interesting population data.  This blog will look at spatial patterns of population change in Brisbane, which recorded a growth rate of 2.1% in 2018-19.  This makes Brisbane the second fastest growing state capital city behind Melbourne (2.5% growth rate).

Population trends in peri-urban towns

While much of the popular discourse around population growth focuses on rapid growth in our major cities, very often trends in other areas are overlooked.  Peri-urban is a term generally used to describe the area surrounding a major urban area, such as the interface between town and rural.  However a peri-urban area is diverse and can include towns, semi-rural and rural lots.  This growth looks at population change in peri-urban towns in the area around Melbourne over the period 2006-16.

Record number of births registered in 2018

In demographic terms, the relationship between births and deaths indicates the level of natural increase and is one of the components of population change.  In 2018, a total of 315,147 births were registered in Australia - the highest number ever recorded.  At the same time, the number of deaths registered in Australia was 158,493.  However not all areas record more births than deaths.  This blog looks at natural increase, and how it differs across NSW.

Vacant dwellings in NSW - trends and prospects

Most people are familiar with the idea of the Census as a population count, but a lot of additional data on dwellings and households are also collected.  Similar to population variables, housing data is also available for small geographic areas.  This enables users to see the spatial patterns and characteristics across our cities and regions.  This blog looks at vacant dwellings in NSW, with particular reference to spatial patterns and possible future trends.

Half of South Australia's population is aged over 40 years

South Australia has one of the oldest populations in Australia, with a median age of 40 years in 2018. But age structures and settlement patterns differ across the State - some areas are younger, and some are older.  This blog looks at the recent release of ERP data by age and sex, with a focus on South Australia and the mining community of Roxby Downs.

Melbourne housing trends - when a three bedroom house is no longer enough

Last week I looked at dwelling diversity in Melbourne from the perspective of dwelling type.  This week's focus is the number of bedrooms, and how this differs by dwelling type across Melbourne.  Separate dwellings comprise 66.1% of the stock in Greater Melbourne, but they come in all shapes and sizes, adding to the diversity mix.  A major trend in recent years has been the increasing size of separate houses - as measured by the number of bedrooms.  For many years the humble three bedroom family home was a quintessential part of suburbia, but their numbers are declining for a variety of reasons.  Read on to find out more.

Australia and Japan - a demographic comparison

When I travel, I like to look beyond the tourist realm.  Naturally, I'm drawn to the demographics of the country I'm in, such as the population, how it's changing, how people live, and how they get around.  I recently travelled to Japan, a country that is culturally, socially and historically very different from Australia.  But how does it compare from a demographic perspective?  Fortunately, the Statistics of Japan website (where I've sourced the statistics) is also in English, so I was able to obtain a lot of interesting data for my readers.

35 Melbourne suburbs are growing by 5% per annum

If you follow this blog you will have noticed that I favour population analysis from a spatial perspective.  In this day and age headline numbers get clicks, but it's not until you look at the differences across metropolitan areas that you gain a better perspective of how our cities are changing.  In 2017-18, Greater Melbourne grew by 2.5%, or 119,420 people.  But how was this growth spread across Melbourne?  SA2 data released by the ABS provides a fine-grained perspective on population change - read on to find out more.

South Australia enjoys modest population growth

South Australia is another state that gets overlooked in the current environment of strong population growth.  For many years South Australia has recorded modest population growth, without the extremes of localised growth recorded in parts of Melbourne and Sydney.  In 2017-18, South Australia recorded a population growth rate of 0.7%, below the national figure of 1.6%, to reach a population of 1.74 million.  Greater Adelaide's growth rate in 2017-18 was slightly higher at 0.8%.  What population trends are evident in South Australia?  Read on to find out.

Population trends in Darwin

With all the attention on issues of population growth and immigration in our largest cities, population trends in our smaller cities has tended to slip under the radar.  Recent population data from the ABS confirms that the Northern Territory (NT) recorded a decline in population in 2017-18.  This is primarily due to increasing levels of net interstate migration loss.  However, there are spatial differences across the NT, and this blog looks at population change in the Greater Darwin region in 2017-18.

Australia's African population - who are they?

It seems you can barely turn on the TV or read a newspaper these days without some mention of the African crime wave, particularly in Melbourne.  For such a small population, they certainly seem to grab their fair share of headlines.  But describing people as "African" is not helpful.  The diversity of the continent means that "African" can describe a multitude of different people.  Furthermore, an ethnic community can be measured in different ways.  So who are the Africans in Australia?  What are their characteristics?  Read on to find out more.

Fertility rates in Melbourne - where are people having babies?

There's little doubt that Australia is currently experiencing rapid rates of population growth, but much of the focus has been on immigration.  However populations grow in two main ways - through net migration and natural increase ie the difference between births and deaths.  In recent years the number of births in Australia has exceeded 300,000 per annum, with the total fertility rate (TFR) remaining somewhat stable.  While these headline figures provide a national perspective, much of the devil is in the spatial details - so to speak.

Population growth in Victoria - from slow growth to woah growth

Cast your mind back to the early 1990s - Australia was in the midst of the recession that we had to have, Paul Keating (who coined the phrase) was the Prime Minister, grunge ruled the music industry and there was no Internet.  Australia's population was 18.2 million, growing by around 1.1% on average in the first half of the 1990s.  Compare this with the 1.6% recorded in 2016-17, and though it may not seem like a huge difference, there's little doubt that the population discourse is now centred around the rapid growth in Australia's largest cities and the challenges this creates.  However, population growth is not spread evenly, and the state of Victoria illustrates this well.  It's a great example of a place where the population dynamics have completely turned around in the course of little more than two decades - from slow growth to woah growth. 

Population growth in Victoria during the 1990s.

The early 1990s recession hit Victoria hard both economically and socially.  Job losses in the manufacturing sector and crises in the banking sector had ramifications through the economy.  The unemployment rate was above 10% from June 1991 to October 1994.  Between 1991-96, the population growth rate averaged 0.5%.  In the 12 months ended June 1994, just 10,200 people were added to the population.  This was driven by a high level of migration out of the State, reaching almost 30,000.  To put this in perspective, that is the equivalent of losing a town around the size of Warrnambool.  The economy slowly recovered in the second half of the decade and population growth increased, averaging 1.0% over the period 1996-2001.

Population growth in Victoria, 2016-17

Twenty or so years later it's a completely different picture.  In 2016-17, Victoria was by far and away the fastest growing State in Australia, recording growth of 2.3% in 2016-17, or more than 144,300 people.  Growth was driven by both migration from overseas and interstate, as well as natural increase (births minus deaths).  About 60% of growth was attributable to net overseas migration.  That Victoria gained more than 17,000 people from other parts of Australia is a huge turnaround for a state that has traditionally lost population through interstate migration.  In fact, the gain of 17,100 was only just surpassed by Queensland's gain of 17,430 - Queensland of course a state that has a long tradition of gaining population through interstate migration.

Where is population growth occurring in Victoria?

Population growth in Victoria is spatially concentrated and generally reflects long standing trends.  Greater Melbourne grew by 2.7% during 2016-17, representing more than 125,000 people or 86% of Victoria's total population growth.  At June 2017 Melbourne's population was 4,850,740 and at the current rate of growth the 5 million milestone will likely be hit before the decade is over.

The map below shows the population growth rate by LGA in Victoria during 2016-17.  Areas with darker blue shading grew strongly, whereas those shaded red lost population over that time.

The LGA that recorded the highest growth rate in Victoria was the City of Melbourne (8.1%), or almost 12,000 people.  This reflects the construction of a large number of apartment buildings in and around the city, and also the high level of overseas migration.  Many overseas migrants are students and other young people who move to the city and surrounds to access education, employment and lifestyle opportunities.  

Other strong growing LGAs (more than 4%) were located on the Melbourne metropolitan fringe and this reflects trends that have been occurring for a number of years.  Wyndham continues its rapid growth, recording a growth rate of 6.1%, or 13,810 persons to reach a population of 241,900.  The urban footprint of Wyndham continues to expand north and west, with several new housing estates under construction in Tarneit and Truganina.  Cardinia and Melton also grew strongly (both 5.0%), followed by Casey (4.4%) and Hume (4.1%).  Casey is Victoria's largest LGA in terms of population size, and its growth rate of 4.4% represents an increase of 13,860 persons - slightly more than faster growing Wyndham.

The fastest growing LGAs in regional Victoria were generally located around the Melbourne metropolitan perimeter or along the coast.  Surf Coast, located south west of Geelong and incorporating rapidly growing towns such as Torquay, grew by 2.9%.  Much of this growth is located in the northern part of the Shire, adjacent to the Geelong metropolitan area and with good access to that job market.  Baw Baw and Mitchell both grew by 2.8%, both areas containing greenfield development opportunities that attract families seeking relatively affordable housing in a semi-rural environment but with access to the Melbourne employment market.

What areas are losing population?

There were no LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne that lost population in 2016-17.  Frankston, Knox and Nillumbik all grew by less than 1%.  All are established suburban areas with few opportunities for larger greenfield developments, and Nillumbik's development is also constrained by topographical and environmental issues.  

It's a different story in regional Victoria but the patterns of population change reflect long standing trends across rural areas of Australia.  Most LGAs in western and north western Victoria lost population in 2016-17, particularly those in dryland agricultural areas.  Of the 13 LGAs that recorded population loss, just two were located elsewhere in Victoria (Towong and Benalla).  Some of these LGAs have very small populations and so small shifts in population trends can have a disproportionate impact when expressed as a percentage.  For instance, the -1.3% decline in Buloke Shire represents 79 people.  The main driver of population loss in these areas is internal migration (more people moving out than in) and natural decrease (more deaths than births).

Summary

Victoria's population is growing strongly, but it is not spread equally across the State.  Growth is concentrated in metropolitan Melbourne, particularly in the CBD and surrounds, and on the urban fringe.  It is driven by migration from interstate and overseas, as well as natural increase.  In regional Victoria, LGAs in close proximity to Melbourne are also growing strongly, but those in dryland farming areas continue to lose population, primarily through out migration and natural decrease.