Telling it like it is - one place at a time
At some point during the first months of 2025, Victoria's population reached 7 million. This milestone seemed to slip under the radar, with almost no reporting in mainstream media. Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, and in recent years population change has been extremely volatile. Let's have a look at Victoria's path to a population of 7 million.
Data on volunteering has been collected in the Census since 2006. It's a simple question that merely asks whether or not a person has volunteered for an organisation or group in the previous twelve months. Although it doesn't provide an indication of the frequency or nature of volunteering activity, the Census data does provide good data on the demographic characteristics of volunteers. What does the 2021 Census tells us about volunteering in Australia?
In the last couple of years I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told that population forecasts are useless because of the impacts brought about by COVID-19. Certainly I've written many blogs that describe the demographic impact of the pandemic, but does this render population forecasts useless? We do live in uncertain times, but I argue that they remain as relevant as ever. Read on to find out why.
Much as I appreciate the ABS releasing population data every quarter, March and September generally have limited interest for me. This year is different. The release of the March 2021 quarter data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. I've blogged previously about the potential impacts of this on population change, particularly overseas migration. Now that we have the data, what does it tell us?
The current outbreak of COVID-19 cases in Sydney has some close parallels to the second wave that hit Melbourne last year. Not only is the Sydney outbreak proving difficult to control, but it appears that public health messages are not reaching multicultural communities (CALD). This is particularly true where English proficiency is poor. This blog is essentially a Sydney version of one that I wrote last year about Melbourne. It looks at the main languages spoken in Sydney, highlighting those with poor English proficiency, and their spatial distribution in the metropolitan area.
The 2021 Australian Census will be held on Tuesday, 10th August. While the Census provides us with a count of people and dwellings, it has other important uses. These include determining appropriate electoral boundaries and number of representatives, as well as the allocation of GST funding to the states. While the 2021 Census is being conducted during a global pandemic, with some parts of Australian in lockdown, the data will still provide a comprehensive picture of the size and characteristics of the population. It will establish new trends, dispel myths, but also provide insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the data will not be released until mid 2022, what can we look forward to?
Like many demographers, I looked forward to the December 2020 release of quarterly population data with great interest. After nine months of minimal overseas migration, what effect would this have on population change? More frequent releases of data from the ABS have provided some insights, but this particular release, covering all of 2020 and all components of change, would provide the ultimate evidence base. My first reaction to seeing the data? Woah!
It seems that not a week goes by without reading an article that highlights the sea/tree change phenomenon. The tone of these articles suggests that people are leaving Sydney and Melbourne in such numbers that the streets are devoid of people and life - save the obligatory tumbleweed. Recent ABS data releases on internal migration have meant that more timely analysis of the ebbs and flows of people around the country is possible. So what exactly is happening? Let a demographer, not a property analyst, put it all into context.
In late March the ABS released the 2020 regional population estimates (ERP). This data shows some signs of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population trends at a more local level. In this blog I look at Victoria, a state that has recorded substantial growth in recent years. Was this trend sustained in 2019-2020? And what has happened at a more local level? Read on to find out.
One of the most profound impacts of the COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns has been the loss of jobs across the economy. This has manifested itself in higher unemployment numbers and rates. Data released by the ABS through the monthly labour force survey is a leading economic indicator, but it doesn't provide the fine-grained spatial aspects to look at differences across regions. This blog uses JobSeeker and Youth Allowance data from the Department of Social Services (DSS) to look at spatial patterns of unemployment.
Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.
This year I've published several blogs that look at the impact of COVID-19 on population change. These have considered the impact of travel restrictions on overseas migration, as this is the driver of population growth in Australia. However internal migration is an important driver of change within Australia. The ABS recently released provisional estimates of internal migration for the period up to June 2020. This data will feed into the regional population estimates for 2019-2020, providing insights into the numbers that will be released in March 2021. What are the highlights of this latest release, and what does this mean for population change?
I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.
I don't normally blog about the March and September quarter population data, but 2020 is different. The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and will continue to have, profound impacts on population change. For this reason, the release of the March quarter data by the ABS was highly anticipated due to the progressive restrictions on overseas arrivals from early February 2020. This was followed by a hard border closure in late March. Given that a large proportion of population growth is driven by overseas migration, it was clear that this would have a major impact on our population growth rate. Turns out this data release was a bit of a fizzer - in fact the release of the data pretty much flew under the radar. Read on to find out why.
Working from home became de rigueur for many people in 2020. Travel restrictions and social distancing on account of a contagious virus meant that there was a large increase in the number of people setting up workplaces in their spare room on the kitchen bench. But not all jobs can be done from the comfort of your spare room, so what are the characteristics of the working from home population? What insights can be gained from the available data?
