Western Australia has the largest homes in the country

Australia's urban areas are characterised by low density, sprawling suburbs with some of the largest homes in the world. In 2019-20, the average area of new houses was around 236 square metres. Although the Census does not capture data on floor area, a useful indicator of dwelling size is the number of bedrooms. Where are the largest dwellings in Australia? 

Recent population trends in Australia

Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?

Population distribution in Australia

One of the more interesting demographic trends in the last two years has been the increased movement of people out of large cities into regional and rural areas. These so-called "flee changers" have local impacts with regard the demand for services and infrastructure, there is still some question as to whether this represents a long term shift in the distribution of the Australian population. This blog looks at the distribution of the Australian population over the last 100 years, concentrating on the state capital/rest of state split.

Population growth increases in Western Australia

The latest release of regional population data by the ABS showed that the City of Perth recorded the strongest growth of all LGAs in Australia (7.1%). This was an intriguing outcome, and is indicative of an upward shift in population growth in Western Australia (WA) over the last two years. But has this been uniform across the state? What trends can be seen at a local level? Read on to find out.

Australia in 2019 - before the pandemic

The release of quarterly population data by the ABS last week slipped somewhat under the radar. No doubt this was partly due to the release of labour force data the same day, but possibly also because it was population data from the December 2019 quarter ie pre COVID-19. These days data that shows the impact of the pandemic is all the rage - and rightly so - but the December 2019 population data provides a useful benchmark by which to measure future impacts. Read on to find out more about Australia's population in 2019.

Steady population growth in Australia

Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication prepared by the ABS, was released just before Xmas.  This provides estimates of Australia's population, and that of the states and territories, up to June 2019.  What are the highlights of this latest release?

How accurate are population forecasts?

Population issues have become highly political in Australia, dominating headlines whenever new data is released.  In 2019, the Australian Government responded to the growing policy pressures by establishing the Centre for Population.  One of its aims is to produce more accurate population forecasts.  As someone with a background in producing population forecasts, this claim intrigued me.  Population forecasts are not predictions, they are the outcome of a set of assumptions.  In this blog I will reflect on the issues and challenges associated with population forecasting, and what options might be available in the future.

Where is the Batavia Coast?

It goes without saying that Australia's coastline is long and diverse.  Some parts have large cities, others are remote and wild.  Many parts of the coast have been given names that are designed to attract visitors to the various regions, generally based around colour, geological features and even animals.  Examples include the Sapphire Coast in southern NSW and the Limestone Coast in South Australia.  They generally don't have any formal status, rather they exist merely for tourism purposes.  This blog looks at the demographic characteristics of the Batavia Coast in Western Australia - named after a shipwreck.

Australia in 2018

Last week the ABS released its quarterly demographic publication - Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0).  This contains demographic data up to December 2018, providing an overview of the Australian population for the full calendar year.  What are the highlights in this latest population data release?

Birth numbers in Australia remain high

Last week the ABS released its annual births publication.  This is an important demographic release as it not only contains data on the number of births, but also where they occur and to whom.  Despite a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) over the course of this decade, birth numbers/registrations remain high.  What trends do the latest data reveal?

Interstate migration trends in Australia

Last week the ABS released Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication that contains population data for the States and Territories of Australia.  Australia's population continues to grow strongly, but media reports associated with this release focused on Queensland regaining its place as the State with the highest net interstate migration gain.  But is this the whole story?  Read on to find out.

Australia's regional cities - which ones are growing?

High levels of population growth, particularly through overseas migration, have well and truly put the spotlight on population issues.  But population growth is uneven, and many of the problems are seen through the lens of people stuck in traffic jams in Sydney and Melbourne.  The new Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has flagged the potential for policies whereby new migrants are required to live in regional areas.  There have also been calls for greater incentives to encourage people and jobs to decentralise, especially to our regional cities.  This blog looks at recent growth trends in Australia's regional cities and considers the issue of whether or not they can alleviate growth pressures in our major cities by increasing their own population growth.

Australia at 25 million - how did we get here?

Happy World Population Day!  On this day when we focus on all things population, why not have a look at the history of Australia's population since 1788.  There's no doubt that Australia is recording strong population growth in the current era, and the ABS estimates that Australia reach a population of 25 million in the coming weeks.  But how did we get here, and when did we reach other population milestones in the past?

Population growth and the mining industry in Western Australia

A friend of mine recently commented about the downturn in the Western Australian economy and how slowly the population was growing.  In 2016-17, Western Australia's population grew by 0.8%, which was half that of the national average.  This is a noticeable turnaround from just a few short years ago, when the demand for labour on mining projects helped drive population growth to the highest levels in the country.  Population growth and change in Western Australia has longed been tied to ebbs and flows in the mining sector.  How has this played out over time?

Population growth in Western Australia, 1901-2017

The chart below shows the population of Western Australia (WA) between 1901 and 2017.  As expected over a 116 year period, there is some volatility in the level of growth.  Most notably, population growth has surged during periods of strong economic growth and mining booms.

The graph shows that since the end of WW2 the population of WA has grown dramatically, with faster periods of growth roughly correlating with mining booms in the 1960s, 1980s and more recently in the 2000s.  During the 1960s, when iron-ore production increased, population growth in WA averaged around 3.5% per annum.  Growth peaked at 4.3% in 1968-69, and in 1970-71 the population of WA reached 1 million persons.  

Population growth in WA was above the national average from 1971 through to 2013.  There were stronger periods of growth during the 1980s mining boom, particularly in the late 1980s when the Australian economy was quite strong and overseas migration was relatively high.  In 2004-05, the WA population reached 2 million.  It took just over 30 years to reach the second million compared to over 140 years to reach the first.

From 2006, population growth in WA surged once again as mining projects in the north of the state opened up significant opportunities for employment during their construction phase.  Though a significant proportion of the workforce was "fly-in fly out" (or FIFO), the data clearly shows that population growth from interstate and overseas migration increased.  This suggests that despite the high mobility of the workforce that some did relocate to WA.  Between 2006 and 2013, the population growth rate was at 2.0% per annum or higher, peaking at 3.2% in 2008-09.

The key difference between the most recent mining boom and those in the past has been the volume of growth, even though the rate of growth is similar.  Between 2006 and 2016, more than 508,000 people were added to the population.  This compares with around 336,000 people in the ten years to 1991, the period covering the boom years of the 1980s.  Between 2007 and 2013 the volume of growth was more than 50,000 per annum, far exceeding the peak of 43,270 persons added to the population in 1987-88.

Dominance of Perth

The settlement pattern in Australia has been described as one with primate cities, ie where the largest city is many times larger than the next sized city.  This is certainly characteristic of WA.  In 2016, the population of Greater Perth was 2.02 million, compared to the 74,100 recorded for the Bunbury Urban Area (which also includes surrounding suburbs and towns) - more than 27 times larger!

Perth has been the capital of WA since 1829, but it hasn't always dominated the population of the state.  This is a legacy of the rural settlement and economy of Australia, with historically larger populations in rural areas responding to labour requirements on farms and in country towns.  As the economy has shifted over time, Perth's share of the WA population has continued to increase - even accounting for changes in boundaries.  In 1901, Perth comprised 37% of the WA population, and by the 1940s this had reached 50%.  As the need for labour on farms declined, and the economy became more focussed on urban areas through jobs in manufacturing and service industries, Perth's share of the WA population continued to increase.  This has occurred despite the mining booms described above which did direct a lot of investment into remote mining areas, and towns such as Karratha and Newman were established.  By the early 1990s Greater Perth's share of WA's population reached 75%, and this had reached 79% by 2016.

Summary

WA's population has been below the national average since 2014, coinciding with reduced labour requirements in the mining sector.  History shows that population growth in WA does have some correlation with mining booms, with stronger growth in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s.  As the state capital, Perth has always been the largest city, and is many times larger than Bunbury.  With a 2016 population of just over 2 million, Perth now comprises 79% of the WA population.