Fertility rate continues to fall

Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.

Is the Gold Coast full of retirees?

The Gold Coast - an urban conglomeration of coastal towns and suburbs, is a sprawling settlement located in South East Queensland. It is Australia's largest urban centre that is not a state capital. It is roughly half the size of Adelaide, and almost three times the size of Hobart. The Gold Coast has a reputation as a retirement destination with an elderly population, but how true is this perception? What are the characteristics of population change on the Gold Coast population in the 21st century?

Internal migration trends in 2020

This year I've published several blogs that look at the impact of COVID-19 on population change. These have considered the impact of travel restrictions on overseas migration, as this is the driver of population growth in Australia. However internal migration is an important driver of change within Australia. The ABS recently released provisional estimates of internal migration for the period up to June 2020. This data will feed into the regional population estimates for 2019-2020, providing insights into the numbers that will be released in March 2021. What are the highlights of this latest release, and what does this mean for population change?

Would Australia's population grow without overseas migration?

I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.

NSW at 8 million - how did we get here?

In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW reached 8 million - a milestone that was 230 years in the making. Population wise, NSW is Australia's largest state, and it is also the state that was first settled by Europeans. The state capital, Sydney, is a global city which is one of the main gateways for overseas migrants. This blog looks at the history of population growth in NSW from 1788 to 2019.

Population growth in Australia remains steady

I don't normally blog about the March and September quarter population data, but 2020 is different. The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and will continue to have, profound impacts on population change. For this reason, the release of the March quarter data by the ABS was highly anticipated due to the progressive restrictions on overseas arrivals from early February 2020. This was followed by a hard border closure in late March. Given that a large proportion of population growth is driven by overseas migration, it was clear that this would have a major impact on our population growth rate. Turns out this data release was a bit of a fizzer - in fact the release of the data pretty much flew under the radar. Read on to find out why.

Where do older people live?

In common with many western countries, Australia's population is ageing. This is typically shown by increases in both the number and proportion of older people. But older people are not a homogenous group - they show a wide range of diversity with regard to their social and economic characteristics. This blog will use the latest population data released by the ABS to look at characteristics of the older population in Australia, as well as their spatial distribution in South Australia.

Who is working from home?

Working from home became de rigueur for many people in 2020. Travel restrictions and social distancing on account of a contagious virus meant that there was a large increase in the number of people setting up workplaces in their spare room on the kitchen bench. But not all jobs can be done from the comfort of your spare room, so what are the characteristics of the working from home population? What insights can be gained from the available data?

The importance of good boundaries

It's hard to think of a time in the recent past when people have been so interested in geography. Coronavirus restrictions have changed that. Here in Melbourne, travel and administrative restrictions have reduced the size of our worlds to a 5km radius. Many people are querying the geographic definition of metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria. It's great to see so much interest in geography, even if it has resulted from such a devastating pandemic. This blog will look at why good geographic boundaries are important by looking at some of the quirkier aspects of spatial units.

Where do international students live?

In May 2020 I published a blog that discussed the impact of COVID-19 on population growth and change in Australia. I argued that the biggest impact would be on the volume of net overseas migration (NOM), but the scale of the impact would depend on how long travel restrictions and the border closure were enforced. Two months later this still rings true. The recent spike in COVID-19 cases in Victoria just shows how precarious the situation is, with restrictions likely to remain in place for some time. This blog progresses the themes I presented in the previous blog, but looks specifically at international students and their contribution to population growth and change in Sydney and Melbourne. 

How language data can inform public health policy

The recent increase in COVID-19 cases in Melbourne has highlighted the need for good data at a local level for planning the response effort. It has been reported that people from non-English speaking backgrounds (CALD communities) may not be receiving key messages about social distancing and other methods to slow the spread of the virus. The Census collects information on language spoken at home and the level of English proficiency. Using these variables, this blog shows how Census data provides the evidence base to inform responses at the local level.

Australia in 2019 - before the pandemic

The release of quarterly population data by the ABS last week slipped somewhat under the radar. No doubt this was partly due to the release of labour force data the same day, but possibly also because it was population data from the December 2019 quarter ie pre COVID-19. These days data that shows the impact of the pandemic is all the rage - and rightly so - but the December 2019 population data provides a useful benchmark by which to measure future impacts. Read on to find out more about Australia's population in 2019.

Access to supermarkets in Melbourne

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, panic buying of various household items, such as toilet paper and pasta, was rampant. Social and mainstream media were full of images of people buying large amounts of toilet paper and the resulting empty supermarket shelves. Although the supply chain has largely been restored, it did pique my interest. Where I live, there are at least six major supermarkets within a 10-minute walk from my house. No toilet paper at my preferred supermarket? Not a problem, I made my way to another. Many people in Melbourne were not so lucky. How did these households manage, particularly when they didn't have the options I did?

This blog will look at the spatial distribution of supermarkets in metropolitan Melbourne. Love 'em or hate 'em, they do provide households with a vast array of good and services. However a lack of access to supermarkets may be more symptomatic of wide disadvantage, particularly in these unprecedented times.

Most of Australia's migrants are here temporarily

Net overseas migration (NOM) is the primary driver of population growth in Australia. In 2018-19, NOM contributed to 62% of total population growth. The headline numbers catch the attention of the media and the general public, but overseas migrants are a diverse group of people. What are their characteristics? The recent release of the annual migration publication by the ABS sheds some light on these, such as the balance between permanent and temporary migration.

What impact will COVID-19 have on population growth?

There's no doubting that the COVID-19 virus and its rapid spread around the world has greatly impacted our lives. To date, much of the public discourse around COVID-19 has focussed on economic and health issues. Of course there are good reasons for this, but what impacts will there be on population change? What trends will there be in a post COVID-19 environment? Much of the answer lies in the length of time Australians are subject to COVID-19 restrictions, and this blog explores my thoughts on this issue.

Recent population trends in Tasmania

An increase in Tasmania's population growth has been one of the more interesting trends in the last few years. Between 2011 and 2016, the annual average growth rate in Tasmania was just 0.2% per annum, but since 2016 it has been 1.1% per annum. Higher levels of migration, both from interstate and overseas, have been the driver of this change. But are all areas sharing in this growth? This blog will look at historical trends as well as spatial patterns of population change in Tasmania.

Queensland's shifting population

This is a follow up to last week's blog, which looked at population growth trends in Greater Brisbane.  When I was conducting my analysis, it struck me that Greater Brisbane had a slightly smaller population than the rest of Queensland.  A quick look at the numbers showed that the populations were converging.  In 2019, the population of Greater Brisbane was 2.51m, compared to 2.58m in rest of Queensland.  However, if current trends continue, Greater Brisbane will have a larger population than the rest of the state by the mid-2020s.

Brisbane is one of the fastest growing cities in Australia

Every year around this time the ABS releases population estimates (ERP) for small areas.  This year the data has been somewhat lost in the coronavirus madness.  Despite the seriousness of that situation, there is still a wealth of interesting population data.  This blog will look at spatial patterns of population change in Brisbane, which recorded a growth rate of 2.1% in 2018-19.  This makes Brisbane the second fastest growing state capital city behind Melbourne (2.5% growth rate).

Is Australia the least religious country?

Australia is described as being a secular country, so it's not surprising that Census data shows a high proportion of people claiming no religion.  In 2016, for the first time, those claiming no religion outnumbered the most common religion (Western Catholic).  In effect, "no religion" is the most common religion in Australia.  But how does this compare internationally?  Is Australia the least religious country?  Read on to find out.

Which LGA has the longest standing boundary?

Changes to local government boundaries (LGAs) are a thorn in the side to any researcher interested in time series analysis.  Depending on the scale of the change, adjustments need to be made to the data in order to make it comparable.  On a recent day trip to the historic town of Queenscliff, I was reminded that the Borough of Queenscliffe (the spelling is different) was the only LGA in Victoria to emerge from the reforms of the 1990s unscathed.  It made me wonder - is this the longest standing stable LGA boundary in Australia, or is there another contender?  I go on a quest to find out.

Building approval trends in cities - behind the headline number

The number of building approvals is generally viewed as an indicator of the state of the economy, and hence is one of the more important data sets released by the ABS.  Approvals are linked to construction activity, jobs and the flow-on effects to the rest of the economy.  Recently I had a conversation with someone who expressed concern at the decline in building approvals, suggesting it was a precursor to an economic recession.  Now I'm not an economist by any stretch of the imagination, but surely it's more than just the number?

Population trends in peri-urban towns

While much of the popular discourse around population growth focuses on rapid growth in our major cities, very often trends in other areas are overlooked.  Peri-urban is a term generally used to describe the area surrounding a major urban area, such as the interface between town and rural.  However a peri-urban area is diverse and can include towns, semi-rural and rural lots.  This growth looks at population change in peri-urban towns in the area around Melbourne over the period 2006-16.

Steady population growth in Australia

Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication prepared by the ABS, was released just before Xmas.  This provides estimates of Australia's population, and that of the states and territories, up to June 2019.  What are the highlights of this latest release?