Telling it like it is - one place at a time
At some point during the first months of 2025, Victoria's population reached 7 million. This milestone seemed to slip under the radar, with almost no reporting in mainstream media. Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, and in recent years population change has been extremely volatile. Let's have a look at Victoria's path to a population of 7 million.
Some years ago I wrote a blog about bypassed towns and what happens to their population afterwards. This was inspired by a visit to Winslow, Arizona in 2016. I compared this town with the Hume Highway towns in Victoria. The topic of bypassed towns and how they decline afterwards is captured in popular culture (the movie "Cars" is a great example), but is it the reality?
Well not 27 million exactly, but by the time you read this blog, Australia's population will have easily surpassed this milestone. At Dec 2023, Australia's population was 26.97 million with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This strong growth was driven by a high level of net overseas migration, comprising 84% of the total growth. Read on to find out more about current demographic trends in Australia.
The release of regional population estimates for 2022 has been highly anticipated. This is because it's the first post-2021 Census release of population data. It covers a 12 month period when the Australian border was reopened to overseas migration after COVID related lockdowns. The state of Victoria was hit hard by COVID, with significant shifts in migration patterns marking an end to a decade or more of strong growth. What are the key demographic trends in 2021-22? Read on to find out.
Towards the end of each year, the ABS releases data on the number of births and deaths across the country. The births data generates significant interest, and more so this year as the fertility rate increased for the first time in many years. While the number of births, and the fertility rate, are important social indicators, they don't tell the full story in terms of population change. This blog looks at natural increase (births minus deaths) in Victoria.
Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?
One of the more interesting demographic trends in the last two years has been the increased movement of people out of large cities into regional and rural areas. These so-called "flee changers" have local impacts with regard the demand for services and infrastructure, there is still some question as to whether this represents a long term shift in the distribution of the Australian population. This blog looks at the distribution of the Australian population over the last 100 years, concentrating on the state capital/rest of state split.
This month's blog is a little different. It consists of a presentation I delivered to University of Melbourne students on population trends, population forecasts, and the impact of COVID-19 on these. I also touched on community infrastructure planning to demonstrate how population data is used in a practical way.
The presentation is based on an article I wrote for Planning News in August 2021, as well as a blog I wrote about the continued relevance of population forecasts in early 2022.
Blogging wise, things will be back to normal next month. 28th June sees the release of 2021 Census data, which will provide updated data on many of the blogs I've written in the past few years.
The release of the 2021 regional population estimates has been highly anticipated. This is because it shows a full twelve months of COVID-19 influenced population trends, particularly the closure of the international border, at a local level. Previous data released by the ABS, such as changes in internal migration patterns have provided some clues as to what the data will show. Read on to find out more.
Each year the ABS releases data on the number of birth and death registrations across Australia. The data is important as it provides indicators of population change at the local level. Fertility trends differ widely across metropolitan and rural areas. What were the key trends in 2020?
Much as I appreciate the ABS releasing population data every quarter, March and September generally have limited interest for me. This year is different. The release of the March 2021 quarter data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. I've blogged previously about the potential impacts of this on population change, particularly overseas migration. Now that we have the data, what does it tell us?
Like many demographers, I looked forward to the December 2020 release of quarterly population data with great interest. After nine months of minimal overseas migration, what effect would this have on population change? More frequent releases of data from the ABS have provided some insights, but this particular release, covering all of 2020 and all components of change, would provide the ultimate evidence base. My first reaction to seeing the data? Woah!
It seems that not a week goes by without reading an article that highlights the sea/tree change phenomenon. The tone of these articles suggests that people are leaving Sydney and Melbourne in such numbers that the streets are devoid of people and life - save the obligatory tumbleweed. Recent ABS data releases on internal migration have meant that more timely analysis of the ebbs and flows of people around the country is possible. So what exactly is happening? Let a demographer, not a property analyst, put it all into context.
In late March the ABS released the 2020 regional population estimates (ERP). This data shows some signs of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population trends at a more local level. In this blog I look at Victoria, a state that has recorded substantial growth in recent years. Was this trend sustained in 2019-2020? And what has happened at a more local level? Read on to find out.
One of the most profound impacts of the COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns has been the loss of jobs across the economy. This has manifested itself in higher unemployment numbers and rates. Data released by the ABS through the monthly labour force survey is a leading economic indicator, but it doesn't provide the fine-grained spatial aspects to look at differences across regions. This blog uses JobSeeker and Youth Allowance data from the Department of Social Services (DSS) to look at spatial patterns of unemployment.
Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.
This year I've published several blogs that look at the impact of COVID-19 on population change. These have considered the impact of travel restrictions on overseas migration, as this is the driver of population growth in Australia. However internal migration is an important driver of change within Australia. The ABS recently released provisional estimates of internal migration for the period up to June 2020. This data will feed into the regional population estimates for 2019-2020, providing insights into the numbers that will be released in March 2021. What are the highlights of this latest release, and what does this mean for population change?
I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.
