Telling it like it is - one place at a time
At some point during the first months of 2025, Victoria's population reached 7 million. This milestone seemed to slip under the radar, with almost no reporting in mainstream media. Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, and in recent years population change has been extremely volatile. Let's have a look at Victoria's path to a population of 7 million.
Well not 27 million exactly, but by the time you read this blog, Australia's population will have easily surpassed this milestone. At Dec 2023, Australia's population was 26.97 million with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This strong growth was driven by a high level of net overseas migration, comprising 84% of the total growth. Read on to find out more about current demographic trends in Australia.
Each year the ABS releases population estimates of the overseas born population in Australia. It provides more timely insights into the composition of this population in between Census years. Data from the Census is combined with more recent administrative data (Medicare, Dept of Home Affairs) to produce estimates for Australia, states and territories.
The release of regional population estimates for 2022 has been highly anticipated. This is because it's the first post-2021 Census release of population data. It covers a 12 month period when the Australian border was reopened to overseas migration after COVID related lockdowns. The state of Victoria was hit hard by COVID, with significant shifts in migration patterns marking an end to a decade or more of strong growth. What are the key demographic trends in 2021-22? Read on to find out.
Not many people know that the ABS has published a large amount of historical Census data on their website. If you want to see how the Australian population, and the dwellings they live in, has changed over the years, then this data is a real treasure trove. This blog looks at countries of birth in Australia, comparing 1971 and 2021 Census data.
Queensland was by far Australia's fastest growing state in 2022. This continues trends that have been in place for the last two years. Population growth has been driven primarily by increasing volumes of interstate migration. This blog describes recent population trends in Queensland, with a particular focus on interstate migration.
Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?
In the last couple of years I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told that population forecasts are useless because of the impacts brought about by COVID-19. Certainly I've written many blogs that describe the demographic impact of the pandemic, but does this render population forecasts useless? We do live in uncertain times, but I argue that they remain as relevant as ever. Read on to find out why.
Australia's population continues to be influenced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the policy changes implemented to control the spread. Historically, South Australia has grown at a modest rate, and its population has an older age profile. But more recently, the state has recorded small gains from interstate migration. Will this make a difference to the ageing trend?
It goes without saying that the impacts of COVID on population change have been profound. Not only has Australia recorded a net loss of overseas migrants but there have been changes in the age structure as a result. In 2019-20, the population of young adults in Australia declined. This blog looks at the scale of this trend and where the impact has been felt more strongly.
Much as I appreciate the ABS releasing population data every quarter, March and September generally have limited interest for me. This year is different. The release of the March 2021 quarter data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. I've blogged previously about the potential impacts of this on population change, particularly overseas migration. Now that we have the data, what does it tell us?
Like many demographers, I looked forward to the December 2020 release of quarterly population data with great interest. After nine months of minimal overseas migration, what effect would this have on population change? More frequent releases of data from the ABS have provided some insights, but this particular release, covering all of 2020 and all components of change, would provide the ultimate evidence base. My first reaction to seeing the data? Woah!
The ABS has recently released new data on the size of Australia's overseas born communities. At June 2020, there were 7.65 million people in Australia who were born overseas, comprising 29.8% of the population. Where were these people born? What are the fastest growing communities? What is their age structure? How does this relate to the 2021 Census? Read on to find out.
The latest release of regional population data by the ABS showed that the City of Perth recorded the strongest growth of all LGAs in Australia (7.1%). This was an intriguing outcome, and is indicative of an upward shift in population growth in Western Australia (WA) over the last two years. But has this been uniform across the state? What trends can be seen at a local level? Read on to find out.
In late March the ABS released the 2020 regional population estimates (ERP). This data shows some signs of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population trends at a more local level. In this blog I look at Victoria, a state that has recorded substantial growth in recent years. Was this trend sustained in 2019-2020? And what has happened at a more local level? Read on to find out.
Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.
I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.
In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW reached 8 million - a milestone that was 230 years in the making. Population wise, NSW is Australia's largest state, and it is also the state that was first settled by Europeans. The state capital, Sydney, is a global city which is one of the main gateways for overseas migrants. This blog looks at the history of population growth in NSW from 1788 to 2019.
I don't normally blog about the March and September quarter population data, but 2020 is different. The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and will continue to have, profound impacts on population change. For this reason, the release of the March quarter data by the ABS was highly anticipated due to the progressive restrictions on overseas arrivals from early February 2020. This was followed by a hard border closure in late March. Given that a large proportion of population growth is driven by overseas migration, it was clear that this would have a major impact on our population growth rate. Turns out this data release was a bit of a fizzer - in fact the release of the data pretty much flew under the radar. Read on to find out why.
