Victoria at 7 million

At some point during the first months of 2025, Victoria's population reached 7 million. This milestone seemed to slip under the radar, with almost no reporting in mainstream media. Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, and in recent years population change has been extremely volatile. Let's have a look at Victoria's path to a population of 7 million.

Australia's population reaches 27 million

Well not 27 million exactly, but by the time you read this blog, Australia's population will have easily surpassed this milestone. At Dec 2023, Australia's population was 26.97 million with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This strong growth was driven by a high level of net overseas migration, comprising 84% of the total growth. Read on to find out more about current demographic trends in Australia.

Population trends in Tasmania

The latest release of regional population estimates from the ABS contains a wealth of data about population change across Australia. Which areas are growing the fastest, which areas are declining, and importantly, how these areas are changing. Tasmania provides an interesting case study to delve deeper into the data. It's not that long ago that Tasmania's growth rate was relatively strong, but is this still the case? And where is the growth occurring in Tasmania?

Migration trends in Queensland

Queensland was by far Australia's fastest growing state in 2022. This continues trends that have been in place for the last two years. Population growth has been driven primarily by increasing volumes of interstate migration. This blog describes recent population trends in Queensland, with a particular focus on interstate migration.

Birth numbers rebound in 2021 - but is it the whole story?

Towards the end of each year, the ABS releases data on the number of births and deaths across the country. The births data generates significant interest, and more so this year as the fertility rate increased for the first time in many years. While the number of births, and the fertility rate, are important social indicators, they don't tell the full story in terms of population change. This blog looks at natural increase (births minus deaths) in Victoria.

Population trends in South Australia

Australia's population continues to be influenced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the policy changes implemented to control the spread. Historically, South Australia has grown at a modest rate, and its population has an older age profile. But more recently, the state has recorded small gains from interstate migration. Will this make a difference to the ageing trend? 

Twelve months of COVID impacts on population

Much as I appreciate the ABS releasing population data every quarter, March and September generally have limited interest for me. This year is different. The release of the March 2021 quarter data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. I've blogged previously about the potential impacts of this on population change, particularly overseas migration. Now that we have the data, what does it tell us?

Fertility rate continues to fall

Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.

NSW at 8 million - how did we get here?

In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW reached 8 million - a milestone that was 230 years in the making. Population wise, NSW is Australia's largest state, and it is also the state that was first settled by Europeans. The state capital, Sydney, is a global city which is one of the main gateways for overseas migrants. This blog looks at the history of population growth in NSW from 1788 to 2019.

Australia in 2019 - before the pandemic

The release of quarterly population data by the ABS last week slipped somewhat under the radar. No doubt this was partly due to the release of labour force data the same day, but possibly also because it was population data from the December 2019 quarter ie pre COVID-19. These days data that shows the impact of the pandemic is all the rage - and rightly so - but the December 2019 population data provides a useful benchmark by which to measure future impacts. Read on to find out more about Australia's population in 2019.

What impact will COVID-19 have on population growth?

There's no doubting that the COVID-19 virus and its rapid spread around the world has greatly impacted our lives. To date, much of the public discourse around COVID-19 has focussed on economic and health issues. Of course there are good reasons for this, but what impacts will there be on population change? What trends will there be in a post COVID-19 environment? Much of the answer lies in the length of time Australians are subject to COVID-19 restrictions, and this blog explores my thoughts on this issue.

Steady population growth in Australia

Australian Demographic Statistics, a quarterly publication prepared by the ABS, was released just before Xmas.  This provides estimates of Australia's population, and that of the states and territories, up to June 2019.  What are the highlights of this latest release?

Record number of births registered in 2018

In demographic terms, the relationship between births and deaths indicates the level of natural increase and is one of the components of population change.  In 2018, a total of 315,147 births were registered in Australia - the highest number ever recorded.  At the same time, the number of deaths registered in Australia was 158,493.  However not all areas record more births than deaths.  This blog looks at natural increase, and how it differs across NSW.

How accurate are population forecasts?

Population issues have become highly political in Australia, dominating headlines whenever new data is released.  In 2019, the Australian Government responded to the growing policy pressures by establishing the Centre for Population.  One of its aims is to produce more accurate population forecasts.  As someone with a background in producing population forecasts, this claim intrigued me.  Population forecasts are not predictions, they are the outcome of a set of assumptions.  In this blog I will reflect on the issues and challenges associated with population forecasting, and what options might be available in the future.

Population growth in NSW is deceptively strong

In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW surpassed the 8 million mark.  This milestone has been somewhat overlooked in the current discourse around the challenges associated with rapid population growth in Australia.  For the last decade, the population growth rate in NSW has been at or around the national average.  But don't let this fool you - the volume of growth has exceeded 100,000 persons per annum since 2013.  This milestone was only reached twice prior to 2000.  This blog looks beyond the growth rate to examine the dynamics of population change in NSW.

Australia and Japan - a demographic comparison

When I travel, I like to look beyond the tourist realm.  Naturally, I'm drawn to the demographics of the country I'm in, such as the population, how it's changing, how people live, and how they get around.  I recently travelled to Japan, a country that is culturally, socially and historically very different from Australia.  But how does it compare from a demographic perspective?  Fortunately, the Statistics of Japan website (where I've sourced the statistics) is also in English, so I was able to obtain a lot of interesting data for my readers.

South Australia enjoys modest population growth

South Australia is another state that gets overlooked in the current environment of strong population growth.  For many years South Australia has recorded modest population growth, without the extremes of localised growth recorded in parts of Melbourne and Sydney.  In 2017-18, South Australia recorded a population growth rate of 0.7%, below the national figure of 1.6%, to reach a population of 1.74 million.  Greater Adelaide's growth rate in 2017-18 was slightly higher at 0.8%.  What population trends are evident in South Australia?  Read on to find out.

Population trends in Darwin

With all the attention on issues of population growth and immigration in our largest cities, population trends in our smaller cities has tended to slip under the radar.  Recent population data from the ABS confirms that the Northern Territory (NT) recorded a decline in population in 2017-18.  This is primarily due to increasing levels of net interstate migration loss.  However, there are spatial differences across the NT, and this blog looks at population change in the Greater Darwin region in 2017-18.

Hobart and Launceston - compare the pair

Tasmania's urban hierarchy is distinctive in that there are two major cities, Hobart and Launceston.  This is unusual in the Australian context as many states have a state capital that is many times larger than the next largest urban centre (urban primacy).  Both cities were established in the early 1800s.  Over the last two hundred years, despite their different histories and economic fortunes, they have grown into the major cities they are today.  From a demographic perspective, how different are Hobart and Launceston?  To paraphrase a superannuation commercial, let's "compare the pair".

Birth numbers in Australia remain high

Last week the ABS released its annual births publication.  This is an important demographic release as it not only contains data on the number of births, but also where they occur and to whom.  Despite a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) over the course of this decade, birth numbers/registrations remain high.  What trends do the latest data reveal?