Presentation on population trends, COVID-19 and planning

This month's blog is a little different. It consists of a presentation I delivered to University of Melbourne students on population trends, population forecasts, and the impact of COVID-19 on these. I also touched on community infrastructure planning to demonstrate how population data is used in a practical way. 

The presentation is based on an article I wrote for Planning News in August 2021, as well as a blog I wrote about the continued relevance of population forecasts in early 2022.  

Blogging wise, things will be back to normal next month. 28th June sees the release of 2021 Census data, which will provide updated data on many of the blogs I've written in the past few years.

Population forecasts in uncertain times

In the last couple of years I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told that population forecasts are useless because of the impacts brought about by COVID-19. Certainly I've written many blogs that describe the demographic impact of the pandemic, but does this render population forecasts useless? We do live in uncertain times, but I argue that they remain as relevant as ever. Read on to find out why.

NSW at 8 million - how did we get here?

In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW reached 8 million - a milestone that was 230 years in the making. Population wise, NSW is Australia's largest state, and it is also the state that was first settled by Europeans. The state capital, Sydney, is a global city which is one of the main gateways for overseas migrants. This blog looks at the history of population growth in NSW from 1788 to 2019.

How accurate are population forecasts?

Population issues have become highly political in Australia, dominating headlines whenever new data is released.  In 2019, the Australian Government responded to the growing policy pressures by establishing the Centre for Population.  One of its aims is to produce more accurate population forecasts.  As someone with a background in producing population forecasts, this claim intrigued me.  Population forecasts are not predictions, they are the outcome of a set of assumptions.  In this blog I will reflect on the issues and challenges associated with population forecasting, and what options might be available in the future.

Four generations of demographic change in Australia

The release of the historical population data by the ABS allows us to look at where we've come from to where we are today - with a demographic spin.  Since 1926, the Australian population has grown considerably, both in size and maturity.  Using 30 years to approximate a generation, this blog looks at three generations of change since 1926, and one generation into the future - 2046.

Melbourne versus Sydney - a long standing rivalry

The rivalry between Melbourne and Sydney has a long history.  Everything from the weather to the football is keenly debated.  But one thing remains a fact - Sydney is Australia's largest city, with a 2018 population of 5.23 million.  But has it always been this way, and what of the future?  Read on the find out more.

When will Melbourne reach 5 million people?

Recently The Age published an article claiming that Melbourne's population was about to hit 5 million - specifically on 1 September 2018.  Naturally this intrigued me, and I wondered how this conclusion was reached.  My recent blog on population milestones did not even discuss Melbourne reaching this mark in 2017 or 2018.  The article in The Age was more about the history of Melbourne and did not elaborate on how this was calculated other than to suggest it was on the basis of new estimates from the ABS.  Did Melbourne's population reach 5 million?  Let's have a look at the evidence.