Telling it like it is - one place at a time
Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?
One of the more interesting demographic trends in the last two years has been the increased movement of people out of large cities into regional and rural areas. These so-called "flee changers" have local impacts with regard the demand for services and infrastructure, there is still some question as to whether this represents a long term shift in the distribution of the Australian population. This blog looks at the distribution of the Australian population over the last 100 years, concentrating on the state capital/rest of state split.
Much has been written in the last 18 months about the increasing population in regional Australia. The driver of this has been attributed to COVID-19 influenced migration (so called "flee changers"). This is despite the fact that the number of people moving out of Sydney and Melbourne has been increasing for some years, ie it predates the pandemic. This blog looks at residential building approvals data, concentrating on NSW, and its relationship to population change in regional areas.
It goes without saying that the impacts of COVID on population change have been profound. Not only has Australia recorded a net loss of overseas migrants but there have been changes in the age structure as a result. In 2019-20, the population of young adults in Australia declined. This blog looks at the scale of this trend and where the impact has been felt more strongly.
Much as I appreciate the ABS releasing population data every quarter, March and September generally have limited interest for me. This year is different. The release of the March 2021 quarter data means there is now a full year to assess the impact of the international border closure on population change. I've blogged previously about the potential impacts of this on population change, particularly overseas migration. Now that we have the data, what does it tell us?
It seems that not a week goes by without reading an article that highlights the sea/tree change phenomenon. The tone of these articles suggests that people are leaving Sydney and Melbourne in such numbers that the streets are devoid of people and life - save the obligatory tumbleweed. Recent ABS data releases on internal migration have meant that more timely analysis of the ebbs and flows of people around the country is possible. So what exactly is happening? Let a demographer, not a property analyst, put it all into context.
The Gold Coast - an urban conglomeration of coastal towns and suburbs, is a sprawling settlement located in South East Queensland. It is Australia's largest urban centre that is not a state capital. It is roughly half the size of Adelaide, and almost three times the size of Hobart. The Gold Coast has a reputation as a retirement destination with an elderly population, but how true is this perception? What are the characteristics of population change on the Gold Coast population in the 21st century?
I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.
In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW reached 8 million - a milestone that was 230 years in the making. Population wise, NSW is Australia's largest state, and it is also the state that was first settled by Europeans. The state capital, Sydney, is a global city which is one of the main gateways for overseas migrants. This blog looks at the history of population growth in NSW from 1788 to 2019.
