Australia is definitely losing its religion

When the 2021 Census data was released in July, the number and proportion of the population claiming no religion attracted significant interest. Almost 10 million Australians, or 38.7% of the population, now claim they have no religion. This is an increase of 41% on the 2016 figure. The Census is the only reliable source of data on religion in Australia, and is typically used for planning schools and religious venues. What else does the data tell us about people with no religion?

50 years of losing our religion

Australia has been steadily losing its religion since 1971, when less than 10% claimed no religion. Except for a small decline in the proportion between 1996 and 2001, the no-religion population has been steadily increasing and the rate of increase has hastened in the last two Censuses. Some of this may be attributable to changes on the Census form, as well as various campaigns that encourage people to answer "no religion", particularly if they no longer go to church. But the rapidity in the growth of the no-religion population cannot be denied, and it matches trends in other countries.

Younger people are more likely to be non-religious

The chart below shows the proportion in each age group who claim no religion. It shows a strong relationship with age, with a steady decline in the proportion of the population with no religion particularly after the age of 25. Interestingly, the 0-4 year cohort had the highest proportion claiming no religion (49.7%), but this is likely to reflect their parent/s views. Similarly, older children (5-14 years) recorded a lower proportion in the no-religion category, but still higher than the national average. Up to age 40, more than 40% of the population claim no religion in each five year cohort. With increasing age, the proportion declines steadily. After the age of 80, less than 20% of the population have no religion.

That younger people are more likely to have no religion suggests that the proportion will continue to increase in the future. This is because the momentum of their views will carry with them as they age, and continue to influence future generations. Personally, I'm surprised the the no-religion proportion did not reach 50% across the country in this Census. Obviously we're not quite there yet - unless you live in Tasmania. Read on.

Where do people with no religion live?

Across the country, there was significant variation in the proportion of people claiming no religion. Tasmania recorded the highest proportion of all states and territories (49.9%), followed by South Australia (45.6%) and the ACT (44.0%). The higher proportion recorded in Tasmania and South Australia is interesting in light of the age structure of these states. They have the highest median age, which, given the chart shown above, might suggest that they have a lower proportion of people with no religion. This suggests that there are other factors at play that characterise non-religious populations. Further analysis of Census data and/or survey data would provide more insights.

In 2021, more than 278,000 Tasmanians indicated that they had no religion. The map below shows the proportion of this population in each LGA. In total, there were 14 LGAs in Tasmania where more than half the population claim no religion. From a spatial perspective they were concentrated along parts of the northern coast, and across the south.

The City of Hobart recorded the highest proportion, with 55.1% claiming no religion. This was closely followed by Flinders (54.7%), and Huon Valley (54.5%). Although age has a distinct relationship with the propensity to claim no religion, it does not seem to be consistent across smaller geographic areas. For instance, the City of Hobart has a younger age profile, with a median age of 37.5 years. On the other hand, Flinders has the highest median age of all LGAs in Tasmania (58 years), yet the proportion claiming no religion is similar in both areas. 

LGAs with the lowest proportion of people with no religion were recorded across central parts of Tasmania. Central Highlands recorded the lowest proportion (40.2%), but this is still higher than the national average of 38.7%. Central Highlands has one of the older age profiles in Tasmania, with a median age of just under 50 years. Similarly, Glamorgan-Spring Bay, a popular retirement area on the east coast, has a high median age (57.4 years) and one of the lowest proportions of people with no religion in the state (44.7%). Within the Hobart metropolitan area, Glenorchy stands out as having a lower proportion of people with no religion (43.5%), despite having a younger population profile. 

Summary

The proportion of Australians with no religion continues to increase. In 2021, just under 10 million people, or 38.7% of the population claimed no religion. Since 1971 this proportion has been increasing steadily, and has gained pace in the last decade. There is a strong relationship between the propensity to claim no religion and age, with younger people more likely to do so. Tasmania had the highest proportion of its population with no religion (49.9%). But at small levels of geography (LGAs), the relationship with age is less distinct. More research is required to provide insights into the reasons for this.