Migration trends in Queensland

Queensland was by far Australia's fastest growing state in 2022. This continues trends that have been in place for the last two years. Population growth has been driven primarily by increasing volumes of interstate migration. This blog describes recent population trends in Queensland, with a particular focus on interstate migration.

What is Queensland's population?

At June 2022, Queensland had a population of 5.32 million. This was an increase of 104,400 over the previous year, representing a growth rate of 2.0%. This growth far exceeded other states and territories, and was almost double the national average of 1.1%. It was the first time since 2008-09 that the volume of growth in Queensland exceeded 100,000 persons. Throughout 2020 and 2021, Queensland's population continued to grow despite the closure of the international border. However, growth was turbo charged with a rapid increase in the volume of interstate migration. This mitigated the impacts of the international border closure on population change.  

The chart below shows the components of population change in Queensland since 1982. The volatility of migration levels over time - both interstate and overseas - is clear to see. In the first half of the 2010s, net interstate migration gain in Queensland was at its lowest level in the last 40 years. In 2013-14, the net gain was just 6,290 people. Between 2014 and 2018, Victoria recorded higher net interstate migration gains than Queensland - an unusual situation for both states when historic trends are considered.

Since 2014 net interstate migration gains in Queensland have steadily increased. In 2020-21, the net gain was 31,180, and this almost doubled in 2021-22 when there was a net gain of 55,420. This is the highest net gain recorded in the last 40 years, and exceeds the previous peak of 49,160 recorded in 1992-93. Brisbane will host the 2032 Olympics, which will encourage population and economic growth through infrastructure and construction projects.

Like other parts of Australia, net overseas migration (NOM) declined dramatically during 2020 and 2021. However the full reopening of the border in early 2022 has resulted in NOM increasing once again. It's important to remember that the current year's figures are still impacted by the restrictions that had been in place. In 2021-22, Queensland's net overseas migration was 23,430, compared to -12,850 in 2020-21. Definitely a rebound back to pre-pandemic trends, but the volume was still lower than the 31,750 recorded in 2018-19 - the last full year of data before the pandemic hit.

In contrast to the volatility in migration levels, natural increase has been relatively steady, with a slight decline in recent years. In 2021-22 the level of natural increase was 27,650, which was the lowest level recorded since the early 2000s. It has been driven the number of deaths increasing at a faster rate than the number of births. This may surprise some readers, particularly given the strong population growth over many years. However it could provide the momentum for an increase in the future, particularly if the age structure of interstate migrants is skewed towards people aged in their 20s and 30s. Which segues nicely into the next section.

What are the characteristics of interstate migrants?

In 2021-22 the number of people who moved to Queensland from the rest of Australia was 142,390. Despite popular perceptions, Victoria was not the main source of arrivals. That distinction goes to NSW, which is consistent with historic trends. A total of 68,230 people moved from NSW to Queensland in 2021-22, or 48% of the total. The equivalent figures for Victoria were 36,690 and 28%.

What has changed is the number and proportion of arrivals from Victoria. There has been a 56% increase in the number of arrivals from Victoria since 2018-19, whereas arrivals from NSW increased by 28% over the same period. However the volume of arrivals from NSW remains far higher than other states and territories. 

Young adults move residence more frequently than others, and this is generally tied to life events such as moving out of home, employment changes, and other life events. The chart below shows the age structure of interstate migrants moving to Queensland between 2012 and 2022. It clearly shows that younger cohorts are more dominant in the migration flow into Queensland, which provides momentum for future population growth.

Notably, all cohorts recorded an increase in the volume of arrivals in 2022, reflecting the record interstate migration gain described above. In 2012 and 2017, young adults (15-29 year olds) formed the largest cohort of arrivals, but they were slightly outnumbered by 30-44 year olds in 2022. Together, these cohorts comprised just over half of arrivals to Queensland. This suggests that migration to Queensland is associated with economic drivers, such as employment, rather than a life cycle event such as retirement. This is in contrast to the popular perception that Queensland is a magnet for retirees and older people. Nonetheless, the number of arrivals aged 60 years and over doubled between 2012 and 2022, albeit from a far lower base than younger cohorts. 

Summary

Queensland recorded the strongest population growth in Australia during 2021-22. The rate of growth was 2.0%, and the volume was 104,000. The level of net interstate migration gain was 55,420, which was the highest level recorded in the last 40 years. Net overseas migration rebounded sharply, approaching levels that were recorded prior to the pandemic. In contrast, natural increase has declined slightly in the last few years. This may change in future years due to the dominance of younger people moving to Queensland from the rest of Australia.