Population trends in Tasmania

The latest release of regional population estimates from the ABS contains a wealth of data about population change across Australia. Which areas are growing the fastest, which areas are declining, and importantly, how these areas are changing. Tasmania provides an interesting case study to delve deeper into the data. It's not that long ago that Tasmania's growth rate was relatively strong, but is this still the case? And where is the growth occurring in Tasmania?

What is driving population change in Tasmania?

At June 2023, the population of Tasmania was 573,160. This was an increase of around 2,100 people over the June 2022 figure, or 0.4%. This is well below the national average of 2.4%. 

This result seems surprising given more rapid growth in recent years as well as an increasingly unaffordable housing market. Growth peaked at 2.0% in both 2018 and 2019 (year ended June), when more than 10,000 people were added to the population each year. This was driven by migration, from overseas and from other parts of Australia. Like other parts of Australia, overseas migration became negative at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when international borders were closed. But it has since rebounded to levels recorded in the late 2010s. 

Interstate migration trends have completely turned around in the last few years. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it - migration levels are extremely volatile. They tend to respond to economic and social drivers in a short space of time. Net interstate migration was a strong contributor to population growth in Tasmania in the late 2010s and remained relatively high during the pandemic years. In 2020-21, Tasmania gained 4,600 people via net interstate migration. However in 2021-22 there was a net loss of people to other parts of Australia (-379) and this loss increased in 2022-23 (-2,600). Young adults (20-34 years) are more likely to move away from Tasmania. 

The other component of demographic change - natural increase - has been in a pattern of general decline since the late 2000s. Natural increase dipped below 1,000 in 2017-18, when the difference between the number of births and number of deaths was just 703. Although there was a slight increase in the subsequent years, it again dropped below 1,000 in 2021-22. In 2022-23, natural increase was just 294. If this trend continues - which is possible given recent interstate migration patterns - Tasmania's population will rely on net migration to record population growth. 

Where is population growth occurring in Tasmania?

The map below shows population change in 2022-23 for LGAs in Tasmania.

LGAs with the strongest growth rates in 2022-23 were located on Hobart's outskirts, or in the peri-urban areas. Brighton, located north of Hobart, recorded a growth rate of 1.6% to reach a population just short of 20,000 people. Sorell, to the east, and Huon Valley, to the south, both grew by 1.2%. These LGAs have new housing estates, and in the case of Huon Valley, have a high level of amenity which makes it popular with people seeking a "tree" or "sea" change within Hobart's wider economic catchment.

Latrobe Council, located on the north coast near the regional city of Devonport, recorded a growth rate of 1.1% in 2022-23. Although this is above the Tasmanian average, it comes at the tail end of a decade of strong population growth. Since 2013, the population has increased by 25%. Much of the increase is in the post-retirement age groups ie 65-79 years. Some of this is the baby boomer generation ageing in place, but coastal areas are attractive to retirees and other life style migrants. 

At the opposite end of the spectrum, King Island recorded population decline of -1.6%.  However, this amounted to just 27 people, and the population (1,648) is still higher than it was for much of the 2010s. A number of LGAs across the north also recorded population decline, including Launceston (-0.1%).

Glenorchy, located in Hobart's northern suburbs, declined by -0.4% (-783), primarily due to internal migration losses. Hobart LGA itself recorded a slight decline in population (-0.1%). However the level of net overseas migration gain (1,420) was almost offset by losses through internal migration (-1,400). This, in conjunction with natural decrease (more deaths than births) resulted in population loss of around 50 people.

Summary

Tasmania recorded modest population growth in 2022-23 (0.4%), well below the national average, and below the strong growth rates recorded just a few years earlier. Migration, particularly from overseas, is contributing to population growth, but interstate migration and natural increase are far more modest. LGAs with stronger growth rates were located around Hobart, as well as Latrobe Council in the north. However parts of Hobart, as well as King Island recorded population decline. Migration trends are likely to influence population change in Tasmania for some time.