Some years ago I wrote a blog about bypassed towns and what happens to their population afterwards. This was inspired by a visit to Winslow, Arizona in 2016. I compared this town with the Hume Highway towns in Victoria. The topic of bypassed towns and how they decline afterwards is captured in popular culture (the movie "Cars" is a great example), but is it the reality?
Perceptions about dying bypassed towns are generally viewed through an economic lens, but of course I'm focused on demographic outcomes. My previous research showed that the population of Winslow showed some decline, and any growth was largely attributable to the construction of a nearby prison. However, this was not the case for the Hume Highway towns. Most of them have grown steadily, particularly those closer to Melbourne. This blog updates my previous research (which also includes a presentation to the 2018 APA Conference) with more recent data to see if the population trends have changed.
Standin' on a corner in Winslow Arizona
Many readers will be familiar with the song Take it easy, released by The Eagles in the early 1970s. The song's protagonist sings that he was standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona, and it was such a fine sight to see...etc etc. Now that I've put the earworm in your head, I'll explain the relevance to population and demography.
Winslow is a small town in rural Arizona. It was founded as a railway town and grew to become an important service centre. It was once the largest town in northern Arizona, before the population of Flagstaff surpassed it in the 1940s. Historic photos show a main street full of activity. The famous Route 66 went through the centre of town, until it was bypassed by the interstate highway (I-40) in 1977.
In May 2016 I visited the town and was struck by the number of boarded up shops and houses. This was true of the old Route 66 road and surrounding streets. There was not a lot happening in the older part of Winslow - save for some activity associated with a flat bed Ford parked on a corner. Yes, the town has designated a corner where Jackson Brown (or Glenn Frey) may have once stood.
Population of Winslow
Data from the US Census Bureau shows that Winslow grew steadily in the first part of the 20th century to reach a population of 8,862 in 1960. Thereafter, there was some decline over the next few decades, and in 1980 the population levelled out at 7,921. This was just after the bypass was completed and is consistent with the perception that these transport projects result in towns losing population.
However there was a surge of population growth between 1990 and 2000, most likely associated with the establishment of a prison in the rural area south of Winslow. This facility has a capacity of approximately 1,250, which would help explain the population increase. The population of Winslow reached a high of 9,655 in 2010, before moderating to just over 9,000 in 2020. The 2022 population estimate shows further decline (8,943).
The construction of the prison has also impacted the age sex structure in Winslow. Well over half of the population are male. This is particularly the case in the 20-39 year age group, where males outnumber females by a factor of 2 to 1.
This data suggests that there is not a simple relationship between a bypassed town and population decline. Winslow was recording population decline before the I-40 bypass was completed in 1977, but population growth since that time is largely due to the prison. Other Arizona towns along the old Route 66, such as Flagstaff and Kingman, have recorded tremendous growth based on their strong and diverse economies. But smaller towns such as Holbrook and Williams have fared differently. Williams was the last Arizona town on the old Route 66 to be bypassed (1984), but it has recorded population growth in all Censuses since. However Holbrook, which was bypassed in 1977, has a smaller population in 2020 compared to 1980.
Bypassed towns on the Hume Highway
The Hume Highway (or Freeway) is the major road linking Sydney and Melbourne. Similar to Route 66, there have been gradual improvements to the road over many decades. This includes the construction of bypasses around all towns between the two cities. The last town to be bypassed was Holbrook in southern NSW, in 2013 (both Arizona and NSW have towns called Holbrook).
The table below shows the population of bypassed towns on the Hume Highway in Victoria since 1991. Unfortunately data on stable boundaries is difficult to access prior to this time. The data used here is sourced from the Census which .id has modified for this purpose. Note that the data for some towns include surrounding rural areas and is based on the enumerated count.
Clearly, most of the Hume Highway towns have recorded steady population growth over the period 1991-2021. Wallan, located about 50km north of Melbourne, is about five times larger than it was in 1991, with growth accelerating in the last ten years. This is due to the availability of affordable housing within commuting distance of Melbourne's northern suburbs in particular. Significant growth is planned for Wallan and the surrounding area in the future. Nearby Kilmore has doubled in size since 1991, and has similar growth drivers to Wallan.
Wangaratta was the only town to record population decline after it was bypassed, with a lower population in 1996 compared to 1991. The town itself was bypassed in 1994. But since that time Wangaratta has grown steadily and was home to almost 20,000 residents at the 2021 Census.
Seymour
The only town which declined in population between 1991 and 2021 was Seymour, a regional centre located about 100km north of Melbourne. Seymour was established in the 1840s. When the railway arrived in the 1870s workshops were established, creating an important source of local employment. Seymour's strategic position as a transport hub was cemented with the development of the highway system in the twentieth century, as it's located at the junction of the Hume Freeway and Goulburn Valley Highway. The establishment of the Puckapunyal Army Base in the region also influenced growth.
The table above shows that Seymour's population generally declined after 1991, reaching 6,231 people in 2001. It stayed around this level until the 2016 Census. Between 2016 and 2021 there was a 5% increase in the population, the first substantial increase since the 1990s. Notably, the railway workshops in Seymour, for many years a major employer, closed in the 1980s. This impacted the local economy and may explain some population loss around this time ie out migration due to job losses.
However demographic factors, such as changes in the age structure also explain much of the population decline in Seymour. The chart below compares the age structure at 1991 (9 years after the completion of the bypass) and at 2021. There has been significant ageing of the population, with all five year cohorts under 45 declining in size, and those over 45 increasing. This has the effect of reducing the size of the family forming age groups, and the population momentum required for further growth. This trend is characteristic of many towns in regional Australia. In other words, the elements for demographic decline already existed despite the highway bypass.
Concluding comments
There's a perception that bypassed towns are doomed demographically. But the reality is more complex than that, involving demographic and economic factors. Census data for Route 66 towns in Arizona, and the Hume Highway towns in Victoria indicate that most towns have grown since they were bypassed. Towns such as Winslow and Seymour were either declining in population before the bypass, or demographic factors explain much of the change.
A bypass can present these towns with new opportunities. Winslow has capitalised on its association with "Take it easy" with the construction of the Standing on the Corner Park. This is a simple placemaking strategy that attracts people to stop and take a photo next to the flat bed Ford, and perhaps get something to eat at the surrounding cafes. Even roadtripping Australians need to stop at some point.
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Standing on a corner park, Winslow, May 2016 (my photo) |
Seymour's location at the edge of Melbourne's economic catchment provides a number of advantages. As mentioned above, the population increased between the 2016 and 2021 Census. In an era of flexible working arrangements, the nexus between place of residence and work has changed. ABS estimates for 2023 show that about 37% of Australians regularly work from home. Furthermore, Seymour has a clear advantage with regards to housing affordability. The median house price in 2023 was $467,500, against the metropolitan Melbourne figure of $860,000.
Overall, very little research has been done in this space. In 2012 the NSW Dept of Transport, Roads and Maritime Services produced a report that evaluated the economic impact of the Hume Highway bypass in Yass, Gunning and Goulburn. The focus was on the economic aspects and showed that there were significant short term impacts on businesses that relied on the passing trade. But in the long term, businesses had more time to adjust and the outcomes were more positive.
There are a number of avenues for further research. This blog has shown that many towns don't suffer population decline after a bypass and the reasons are many. The research needs to be extended to small towns to assess the full impact. The role of geography, particularly proximity to large metropolitan areas, is also important. More historic data for Australian towns, and looking at other highways, would provide more context. Finally, an exploration of the benefits and opportunities would shift some of the negative perceptions that exist.
Next time you hear about a town being bypassed - take a closer look - it's not necessarily doom and gloom.
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