Population growth in and around Canberra

Recently the ACT Government released the 2018 ACT Planning Strategy - essentially Canberra's metropolitan planning strategy.  From a population and housing perspective, the main goals are to curb the amount of outward urban expansion.  The strategy also recognises Canberra's role not only as the nation's capital, but as an important regional centre for surrounding parts of NSW.  The release of the strategy provides an opportunity to look at spatial patterns of growth in Canberra and surrounding parts of NSW, because let's face it - urban and regional planning should transcend administrative boundaries.

What is the population of Canberra?

The settlement pattern of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is such that Canberra comprises the overwhelming bulk of the population.  At June 2018, the population of the ACT was 412,902 an increase of around 8,880 persons over the previous twelve months.  This equates to a growth rate of 2.2%, which was almost the highest in the country.  More than half of the ACT's growth came from net overseas migration (53%), and a further 40% through natural increase.

Aside from 2013-2014, population growth in the ACT has exceeded the national figure since 2009-2010.

The Canberra region

As a major city Canberra's influence extends beyond the ACT border into NSW and there are significant social and economic ties between the two regions.  The peri-urban region in NSW offers relatively affordable housing opportunities in a semi-rural environment, but still within commuting distance of Canberra.  Queanbeyan is located in NSW just beyond the border and its growth has long been tied to economic fortunes in its larger neighbour.  Similarly, towns such as Bungendore, Murrumbateman and Yass offer country town living within the wider economic catchment of Canberra.

For example, 2016 Census data shows that twice as many employed persons who live in Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council (QPRC) work in the ACT than in the Regional Council itself.  Almost 18,500 persons make the commute across the border into the ACT, compared to the 9,037 who live and work in QPRC itself.  Not that it's all one way traffic - more than 4,700 make the trip in the opposite direction ie live in ACT, work in QPRC.

Direction 1.4 in the 2018 ACT Planning Strategy recognises the importance in considering growth in this wider Canberra region.  This Direction states that relationships with the NSW State Government and relevant councils will be forged in order to manage growth and change.  For example, there are existing arrangements for residents of NSW to attend school in the ACT, the numbers of which are around 4,500.  This is not surprising as some of the smaller towns around Canberra do not have a primary school.  Other parents chose to send their children to private schools in Canberra as there are more options.

Where is growth happening in Canberra?

Data for SA2 geography can be used to examine patterns of growth and change across the ACT and surrounds.  The latest data available is for 2016-2017 and the map below shows how population growth differed across this region.  Although Canberra has growth areas and urban renewal areas like other major Australian cities, the spatial patterns are scattered and less distinct, with areas of growth and decline located in close proximity.

Note that there are a number of SA2s in the ACT with minimal population, and they have been excluded from this analysis.  Some of these, such as Throsby, are new residential areas which will grow considerably in the future.

The map shows that there were clusters of strong growth across the outer north (Ghungalin), north west (Belconnen) and inner city/CBD area.  SA2s that recorded the strongest growth were new suburbs - Lawson and Moncrieff - with growth of 383% and 834% respectively.  However given that these suburbs had populations of less than 1,000 persons at June 2017 and that they will continue to grow in the future, it would be expected that these growth rates will moderate over time.

Canberra's primary urban growth fronts are located in the outer north and the Molonglo Valley region.  SA2s in the outer north grew strongly in 2016-17, particularly the aforementioned Moncrieff, but also Jacka (15.1%) and Franklin (8.1%).  Wright and Coombs are the growth fronts in the Molonglo Valley, growing by 16.3% and 36.8% respectively.  Again, these are areas with small populations and the growth rates will moderate over time.  Significant growth is planned for other parts of the Molonglo Valley in the future.

Canberra has not been immune to the apartment boom and this was a key driver behind strong population growth in the inner city area.  Civic grew by 9.2%, by far the highest growth rate in central Canberra.  The surrounding suburbs of Braddon and Acton also grew by more than 3% in 2016-17.  One of the aims of the ACT Planning Strategy is to increase housing supply and densities in established areas, so it would be expected that growth will continue in select locations as supply becomes available for redevelopment. Redevelopment of ageing public housing estates will also influence population and dwelling change in selected locations.

Several areas in Canberra recorded population decline in 2016-17.  Generally, these were more established areas with limited opportunities for housing development, and/or with more mature populations.  Most of these areas were in the Tuggeranong and Woden areas.  In fact, only two SA2s in Tuggeranong recorded growth - Greenway (5.8%) and Gowrie (a mere 0.1%).  Greenway's strong growth was a result of apartment construction in the Tuggeranong Town Centre.

Outside of Canberra, the strongest growth was recorded in Queanbeyan Region, which is largely rural but also incorporates the growing suburb of Googong and the township of Bungendore.  Braidwood SA2 also recorded strong growth (2.3%), but growth was far more moderate in Yass (0.1%), and Cooma recorded a small decline (-0.2%).

Summary

The 2018 ACT Planning Strategy recognises the importance of Canberra in a wider regional setting.  This is important because much of the population growth in the surrounding areas within NSW are influenced by the proximity to Canberra.  In 2017-18, the ACT recorded strong population growth of 2.2%, just shy of the highest rate amongst Australia's states and territories.  Spatial patterns of population growth and change in Canberra and the surrounding region show hotspots of strong growth within Canberra itself, but also many areas of stable and declining population.  The strongest growth in Canberra's surrounding region was recorded in Queanbeyan Region SA2, which includes the growing suburb of Googong as well as the township of Bungendore.