Recent population trends in Australia

Although the release of 2021 Census data is gaining a lot of media attention, the ABS also released updated population estimates at the same time. This new data presents rebased estimates that are tied to the 2021 Census. It is part of the five year cycle of population estimates produced by the ABS - once the current estimates are finalised, the next rebasing will occur after the 2026 Census. What does this new data tell us about Australia's population in 2021?

Presentation on population trends, COVID-19 and planning

This month's blog is a little different. It consists of a presentation I delivered to University of Melbourne students on population trends, population forecasts, and the impact of COVID-19 on these. I also touched on community infrastructure planning to demonstrate how population data is used in a practical way. 

The presentation is based on an article I wrote for Planning News in August 2021, as well as a blog I wrote about the continued relevance of population forecasts in early 2022.  

Blogging wise, things will be back to normal next month. 28th June sees the release of 2021 Census data, which will provide updated data on many of the blogs I've written in the past few years.

Population growth in Australia remains steady

I don't normally blog about the March and September quarter population data, but 2020 is different. The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and will continue to have, profound impacts on population change. For this reason, the release of the March quarter data by the ABS was highly anticipated due to the progressive restrictions on overseas arrivals from early February 2020. This was followed by a hard border closure in late March. Given that a large proportion of population growth is driven by overseas migration, it was clear that this would have a major impact on our population growth rate. Turns out this data release was a bit of a fizzer - in fact the release of the data pretty much flew under the radar. Read on to find out why.

How accurate are population forecasts?

Population issues have become highly political in Australia, dominating headlines whenever new data is released.  In 2019, the Australian Government responded to the growing policy pressures by establishing the Centre for Population.  One of its aims is to produce more accurate population forecasts.  As someone with a background in producing population forecasts, this claim intrigued me.  Population forecasts are not predictions, they are the outcome of a set of assumptions.  In this blog I will reflect on the issues and challenges associated with population forecasting, and what options might be available in the future.

What is the largest school in Victoria?

If you work with data you probably know all about the Victorian Government's online repository - if you don't click on this link.  Each year the Department of Education conducts a school Census, which collects enrolment data at a point in time.  In this blog I've used data from the Department of Education to look at characteristics of schools, particularly by type and size.

Where is the Batavia Coast?

It goes without saying that Australia's coastline is long and diverse.  Some parts have large cities, others are remote and wild.  Many parts of the coast have been given names that are designed to attract visitors to the various regions, generally based around colour, geological features and even animals.  Examples include the Sapphire Coast in southern NSW and the Limestone Coast in South Australia.  They generally don't have any formal status, rather they exist merely for tourism purposes.  This blog looks at the demographic characteristics of the Batavia Coast in Western Australia - named after a shipwreck.

Four generations of demographic change in Australia

The release of the historical population data by the ABS allows us to look at where we've come from to where we are today - with a demographic spin.  Since 1926, the Australian population has grown considerably, both in size and maturity.  Using 30 years to approximate a generation, this blog looks at three generations of change since 1926, and one generation into the future - 2046.

Population growth in NSW is deceptively strong

In the second half of 2018, the population of NSW surpassed the 8 million mark.  This milestone has been somewhat overlooked in the current discourse around the challenges associated with rapid population growth in Australia.  For the last decade, the population growth rate in NSW has been at or around the national average.  But don't let this fool you - the volume of growth has exceeded 100,000 persons per annum since 2013.  This milestone was only reached twice prior to 2000.  This blog looks beyond the growth rate to examine the dynamics of population change in NSW.

The Maori population in Australia

One of the great attributes of Census data is the ability to look at the characteristics of Australia's ethnic communities.  In many cases there is simply no other data source available.  Ethnic communities are typically measured through birthplace, language and/or ancestry, and Census data has the added advantage in that many variables can be cross-tabulated to provide rich insights into these communities.  This blog uses 2016 Census data to examine some of the characteristics of the Maori community in Australia.

Australia in 2018

Last week the ABS released its quarterly demographic publication - Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0).  This contains demographic data up to December 2018, providing an overview of the Australian population for the full calendar year.  What are the highlights in this latest population data release?

Australia and Japan - a demographic comparison

When I travel, I like to look beyond the tourist realm.  Naturally, I'm drawn to the demographics of the country I'm in, such as the population, how it's changing, how people live, and how they get around.  I recently travelled to Japan, a country that is culturally, socially and historically very different from Australia.  But how does it compare from a demographic perspective?  Fortunately, the Statistics of Japan website (where I've sourced the statistics) is also in English, so I was able to obtain a lot of interesting data for my readers.

Melbourne versus Sydney - a long standing rivalry

The rivalry between Melbourne and Sydney has a long history.  Everything from the weather to the football is keenly debated.  But one thing remains a fact - Sydney is Australia's largest city, with a 2018 population of 5.23 million.  But has it always been this way, and what of the future?  Read on the find out more.

35 Melbourne suburbs are growing by 5% per annum

If you follow this blog you will have noticed that I favour population analysis from a spatial perspective.  In this day and age headline numbers get clicks, but it's not until you look at the differences across metropolitan areas that you gain a better perspective of how our cities are changing.  In 2017-18, Greater Melbourne grew by 2.5%, or 119,420 people.  But how was this growth spread across Melbourne?  SA2 data released by the ABS provides a fine-grained perspective on population change - read on to find out more.

Are inner city areas attracting older residents?

If I had a dollar for every time I was told that older people are downsizing in droves and leaving the suburbs for the inner city, I'd be a much richer person.  This perception has persisted despite the evidence to the contrary.  Every so often an article will appear in a newspaper that perpetuates the myth.  The most recent example appeared in the SMH and used a case study approach to illustrate how the inner suburbs are changing through in-migration of older persons, and how this might continue into the future.  While there's little doubt that the individuals in these articles did make such a move, but is really it a trend?  Let's have a look at the evidence, using inner Sydney as a case study.

Most of Australia's migrants are here temporarily

The ABS has recently released data from its Australian Census and Temporary Entrants Integrated Dataset (ACTEID) which effectively matches two datasets and provides more insight into the characteristics of migrants.  In an era where there is a lot of conjecture around the scale and composition of Australia's migration program, this type of data release is welcome as it adds to the evidence base.  So what are the key findings?  Read on to find out.

Australia's African population - who are they?

It seems you can barely turn on the TV or read a newspaper these days without some mention of the African crime wave, particularly in Melbourne.  For such a small population, they certainly seem to grab their fair share of headlines.  But describing people as "African" is not helpful.  The diversity of the continent means that "African" can describe a multitude of different people.  Furthermore, an ethnic community can be measured in different ways.  So who are the Africans in Australia?  What are their characteristics?  Read on to find out more.

Population growth in and around Canberra

Recently the ACT Government released the 2018 ACT Planning Strategy - essentially Canberra's metropolitan planning strategy.  From a population and housing perspective, the main goals are to curb the amount of outward urban expansion.  The strategy also recognises Canberra's role not only as the nation's capital, but as an important regional centre for surrounding parts of NSW.  The release of the strategy provides an opportunity to look at spatial patterns of growth in Canberra and surrounding parts of NSW, because let's face it - urban and regional planning should transcend administrative boundaries.

Australia's population growth has slowed

Just before Christmas the ABS released its quarterly demographic publication - Australian Demographic Statistics.  This latest release provides data on population growth and change for Australia's states and territories up to June 2018.  Population, and especially migration, was a hot topic in 2018, but what do the latest numbers tell us?  Read on to find out more.

Birth numbers in Australia remain high

Last week the ABS released its annual births publication.  This is an important demographic release as it not only contains data on the number of births, but also where they occur and to whom.  Despite a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) over the course of this decade, birth numbers/registrations remain high.  What trends do the latest data reveal?

Australia has some of the biggest houses in the world

It's often said that Australia builds some of the largest houses in the world.  In the second half of the twentieth century the growth of suburbs dominated by separate houses on large blocks has contributed to urban sprawl.  In many ways it's ironic that although contemporary planning policies seek to address these issues eg through smaller block sizes on the urban fringe and increased densities in established areas, house sizes remain large.  What data illustrates these trends?