Recent population trends in Tasmania

An increase in Tasmania's population growth has been one of the more interesting trends in the last few years. Between 2011 and 2016, the annual average growth rate in Tasmania was just 0.2% per annum, but since 2016 it has been 1.1% per annum. Higher levels of migration, both from interstate and overseas, have been the driver of this change. But are all areas sharing in this growth? This blog will look at historical trends as well as spatial patterns of population change in Tasmania.

Tasmania's population

At June 2019, the population of Tasmania was 534,460. This was an increase of more than 6,100 persons on the June 2018 figure, or a growth rate of 1.2%. This was the highest population growth rate recorded since 2009, but it was still below the national average of 1.5%. In fact, the 6,100 persons added to the Tasmanian population was the highest since 1990. Coincidentally it was also the last time that the Tasmanian population growth rate was higher than the Australian figure.

Tasmania's population growth has fluctuated considerably throughout its history. The graph below shows the population over the period 1901-2019. 

In 1901, Tasmania's population was 171,700, and it reached 200,000 in 1919. Rapid growth followed both World Wars, and it was particularly strong throughout the 1950s. Between 1950 and 1952, the growth rate exceeded 3% per annum. The volume of growth in 1950-51 and 1951-52 exceeded 10,000 persons each year, the highest recorded. The 1950s was a time of rapid population growth in Australia and coincided with waves of migration from Europe and the post-war baby boom. Tasmania was clearly impacted by these demographic trends along with the rest of Australia.

In the last 70 years population growth has ebbed and flowed, generally in line with economic conditions but out-migration, particularly of young people, has also played a role. Since 1959, the population growth rate has exceeded the Australian figure only once (1990, as mentioned above). In the late 1990s, population growth slowed considerably, and the population actually declined between 1997 and 1999. 

In the 21st century Tasmania population growth has been slow to moderate.  Between 2000 and 2002, just 1,100 people were added to the population, and growth was also sluggish between 2011 and 2016. Since 2016, the population has grown by almost 17,000 people, similar to the volume of growth recorded in the late 2000s and early 1990s.

Whether Tasmania can sustain these rates of population growth remains to be seen. The impact of COVID-19 on population trends is yet to be confirmed in official data, but it's clear that levels of net overseas migration (NOM) will be heavily impacted. In 2018-19, NOM accounted for almost half of population growth in Tasmania. Without NOM, Tasmania's population would have grown by just 0.6%. Interstate migration is also likely to be impacted due to travel restrictions for non-essential workers. Upcoming data releases by the ABS will shed further light on the population impacts.

Where is growth occurring in Tasmania?

The map below shows the population growth rate by LGA during 2018-19. Areas growing more strongly are shaded dark blue, whereas those shaded red recorded population decline. From a general perspective, the fastest-growing LGAs were located in southern Tasmania, especially to the north and east of Hobart.

In 2018-19, the fastest growing LGA in Tasmania was Southern Midlands, recording a growth rate of 2.8%. This is a rural area located to the north of Hobart, and this growth consisted of just 173 people. Sorell (2.5%), located east of Hobart, also grew strongly. There are a number of new housing estates in Sorell and these are popular with first home buyers. However both Sorell and Southern Midlands attract people seeking to live in a rural environment in close proximity to Hobart.

Latrobe, in northern Tasmania, also grew strongly (2.7%), as did Flinders (2.3%). Flinders covers the island of its namesake and others in the Furneaux group. Although the volume of growth was just 23 people, the population milestone of 1,000 people was surpassed! Latrobe's growth is interesting as it's driven by people seeking an alternative to living in the nearby regional city of Devonport, as well as lifestylers and retirees seeking a semi-rural (eg Spreyton and Tarleton) or coastal (eg Port Sorell) environment. It has consistently recorded above average growth for much of this decade.

With the exception of Glenorchy, all LGAs in metropolitan Hobart recorded growth rates that exceeded the Tasmanian figure. This was headed by Sorrell as discussed above, followed by Brighton (2.2%), a greenfield area located on the northern outskirts, and Hobart City (1.6%).

Only three LGAs in Tasmania recorded population decline in 2018-19. These were all rural LGAs and the volumes were very small. Central Highlands recorded a decline of -0.7%, which represented just 14 people. This is a sparsely populated LGA covering a wide area with a number of small towns and a rural economy. In common with many rural parts of Australia, population decline has occurred for many years. This amounted to just over 9% between 2001 and 2019.

Summary

Tasmania's population growth rate has increased since 2016 but is still below the national average. The history of population change in Tasmania shows considerably volatility, including periods of population decline. At June 2019 the population of Tasmania was 534,460. The fastest growing LGAs were generally in the south, headed by the rural LGA of Southern Midlands which grew by 2.8%. Only three LGAs recorded population decline in 2018-19. However in the future population change will be impacted by COVID-19, particularly net overseas migration which comprised half of the growth in 2018-19.