Queensland has a distinctive settlement pattern
Unlike most other states, Queensland is not dominated (population wise) by its state capital. In 2019, Greater Brisbane comprised just under half of Queensland's population. Compare this to Western Australia, where Greater Perth comprises almost 80% of the state's population. Greater Melbourne and Greater Adelaide also comprise more than three-quarters of their state's populations. The high rates of urban primacy can be traced back to the beginning of European settlement, but other factors such as colonial administration, export markets, climate and geography also played a role.
Queensland also has a number of larger regional centres compared to other states. Examples include Townsville and Cairns in Far North Queensland and Toowoomba, to the west of Brisbane. The Gold and Sunshine Coasts, located south and north of Brisbane respectively, consist of many towns and villages which have grown outwards and merged to create a larger urban conurbation. They have very strong economic and social ties to the capital, hence the consideration as one mega-city from an urban planning perspective. From a statistical perspective however they are not included in the region known as Greater Brisbane.
Greater Brisbane vs rest of Queensland
The chart below shows the population of Greater Brisbane and the rest of Queensland (RoQ) from 1971-2019. Unfortunately, it's difficult to go back further in time due to boundary and methodological changes, but an almost 50-year time series shows clear trends.
In 1979, the population of RoQ overtook that of Greater Brisbane. At this time, the population of RoQ was 1.109m, compared to 1.106m in Greater Brisbane. Stronger growth in RoQ throughout the 1980s, 1990s and into the first decade of this century saw the difference in the two populations increase. In 2008, there were 195,100 more people in RoQ, which was the greatest difference recorded between the two populations. The population of RoQ at this time was 2.207 million.
Growth rates in RoQ were at their strongest during the 1970s and 1980s. In 1980-81, the growth rate was 4.4% (the highest recorded) and the volume of growth was more than 50,000. There was another phase of strong growth in the late 1980s and into the early 1990s, and in the period 2007-2009. Higher levels of net interstate migration gain explain the stronger growth in the earlier periods. In contrast, net overseas migration was a bigger contributor to population growth in 2007-09, possibly influenced by employment opportunities in the mining sector.
Since 2009, population growth has been stronger in Greater Brisbane, resulting in a convergence of the two populations. Higher levels of net overseas migration, increasing urbanisation and concentration of high tech jobs are important in explaining this growth. The annual average growth rate in Greater Brisbane between 2009 and 2019 was 1.9%, compared to 1.3% in RoQ. In 2019, there was only a difference of 66,140 persons between the two populations. The coronavirus pandemic aside, a continuation of these trends would see Greater Brisbane's population exceed that of RoQ by the mid-2020s.
Growth has slowed in some larger RoQ cities
RoQ is a diverse area but the larger cities and their economic fortunes tend to drive population change. The table below shows population change in Greater Brisbane and compares this with selected LGAs located in RoQ. The lower volumes of growth in 2014-19 compared with earlier periods goes some way to explaining why the populations of Greater Brisbane and RoQ are converging.
The Gold Coast is the largest LGA outside Greater Brisbane, with a 2019 population of 620,520. The Gold Coast experienced a major growth phase in the 1980s and 1990s, and at times was the fastest growing LGA in the country. The annual average growth rate in the last five years was 2.4%, which is above the national average. It is well below the 3.2% recorded in the period 2004-09, but higher than the 2.0% recorded in 2009-14. As mentioned in my previous blog, the fastest growing areas on the Gold Coast are in the north, almost within reach of Brisbane's outer southern suburbs. The Sunshine Coast follows a similar trend, but in the last five years has recorded a higher annual average growth rate (2.6%).
The major cities in Far North Queensland have recorded a much larger decline in population growth. Above average rates were recorded in 2004-09, particularly in Cairns where the annual average growth rate averaged 3.4%. In 2014-19, the annual average growth rates are about one-third of the 2004-09 figures, and both Cairns and particularly Townsville are growing at rates below the national average.
Gladstone's story is a little different, as it recorded strong growth in 2004-14 on the back of major construction projects in the mining sector and the expansion of port functions. In 2004-09 the growth rate was 2.9% per annum on average, with a total volume of growth exceeding 7,500 persons. However these mining projects are now in their operational phase, and the construction workers are no longer required, resulting in out-migration. Gladstone's population peaked at 63,700 in 2015 before recording a decline over the next two years. The population has since rebounded to reach 63,410, but overall in the period 2014-19 the growth amounted to just 45 persons. Components of change data from the ABS show that the volume of out-migration is slowing, perhaps indicating that the period of population decline has passed.
Summary
Since 1979, the population of RoQ has exceeded that of Greater Brisbane. RoQ grew strongly in the 1980s and 1990s, continuing into the 2000s. This was driven by rapid growth in large regional cities such as the Gold Coast, Townsville and Cairns. Since 2009, Greater Brisbane has recorded stronger growth, and this has resulted in the populations of Greater Brisbane and RoQ converging. In 2019, the difference was just over 66,000 persons. If current trends continue, Greater Brisbane's population will once again exceed that of RoQ.
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