Thursday, November 26, 2020

Is the Gold Coast full of retirees?

The Gold Coast - an urban conglomeration of coastal towns and suburbs, is a sprawling settlement located in South East Queensland. It is Australia's largest urban centre that is not a state capital. It is roughly half the size of Adelaide, and almost three times the size of Hobart. The Gold Coast has a reputation as a retirement destination with an elderly population, but how true is this perception? What are the characteristics of population change on the Gold Coast population in the 21st century?

Gold Coast population growth

The Gold Coast (as measured by the LGA) has been one of the fastest growing urban areas in Australia for many years. During the 1990s, annual population growth averaged more than 4%. Since 1995, the population has doubled. On only two occasions since 1991 has population growth dropped below 2% per annum. Both of these occurred in the first half of the 2010s. 

The graph below shows population growth since 1991. The population was 620,520 in 2019, representing an annual growth rate of 2.3%.



The Gold Coast grows primarily through migration, both from overseas and other parts of Australia. In 2018-19, net overseas migration comprised 40% of population growth, and net internal migration a further 38%. The age profile of internal migrants shows that family age groups (0-14 years and 25-44 year olds) comprised almost half of the total, and 45-64 year olds another 24%. These proportions have been fairly consistent over the last three years. Although these age groups are broad, they are likely to include a proportion of retirees.

Age structure of the Gold Coast

The Gold Coast is perceived to have an older population, and this stems from its popularity as a retirement and lifestyle destination. As mentioned above, the Gold Coast does record significant growth through internal migration, and around a quarter of these people are aged 45-64 years. A further one in seven internal migrants in 2018-19 were aged 65 years and over. Some of these people are likely to be retirees, but it's such a broad age group that's it's hard to generalise.

In 2019, about one in six Gold Coast residents were aged 65 years and over (16.6%). By comparison, the equivalent figures for Australia and Queensland were 15.9% and 15.7% respectively. 

To place the older population on the Gold Coast in perspective, there are 18 LGAs in Queensland where the proportion of the 65+ population is 20% or more. Most of these LGAs are located along the coast north of Brisbane, headed by Hinchinbrook in far north Queensland, where 28.6% of the population fall into this age cohort. 

Interestingly, Tweed Shire, located adjacent to the Gold Coast but on the other side of the NSW border, has a much older age profile. In 2019, 25.2% of the population was aged 65 years and over. This is significantly higher than the 16.6% on the Gold Coast. Tweed Heads and surrounding suburbs are essentially an extension of the Gold Coast urban conurbation. Perhaps some of the perception of the Gold Coast as an older population actually relates to the Tweed Heads area.

The age structure of the Gold Coast is shown in the graph below. It shows the proportion of the population in each age cohort in 2009, 2014, 2019. Changing age structures are important from the perspective of service planning for all levels of government.
















Between 2009 and 2019, the older age cohorts generally increased as a proportion of the population. This was particularly true of 65-74 year olds, who are the older baby boomers (born in the late 1940s and early 1950s). In 2009 this cohort comprised 7.5% of the population, and this had increased to 9.5% in 2019. In numeric terms, this represented an increase of more than 21,600 people.

There were also increases at the upper end of the age spectrum. People aged 85 years and over comprised 2.0% of the population in 2019, up from 1.7% in 2009. This may not seem like much of an increase in proportional terms, but it represented more than 4,000 people over the ten years. These increases are not surprising given the age profile of people moving to the Gold Coast described above.

Where do older people live on the Gold Coast?

Overall the Gold Coast has a diverse population, but there are areas where there is a higher proportion of older people. The map below shows the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over by SA2s on the Gold Coast, but also includes some in Tweed Shire in northern NSW. The darker the shading, the higher the proportion of 65+ year olds in the population.


















There are several SA2s where the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over exceeds 24%. A cluster in the northern suburbs is headed by Runaway Bay where 32% of the population fall into this age group. This was followed by Coombabah (30.2%) and Main Beach (29.5%).

However there was another cluster of SA2s in neighbouring Tweed Shire where the proportion of people aged 65 years and over was very high. In Tweed Heads South, 35.2% of the population are aged 65 years and over, one of the highest proportions in the country. Banora Point (29.6%), and Tweed Heads (28.9%) also recorded a high proportion of people aged 65 years and over. Coolangatta, located in Queensland, is also part of this cluster. 

One of the reasons why these SA2s have such high proportions of residents aged 65 years and over is the many housing options that cater to people in this age group. Retirement villages are the best example, and these purpose built facilities attract people from other parts of Australia, as well as from within the Gold Coast itself. They offer downsizing options close to health care (and possibly family) that may not be available in some parts of suburban and regional Australia. Aged care facilities in these areas also contribute to a higher proportion of older persons in the population.

Summary

The perception of the Gold Coast as a haven for retirees and older people is partly true. Overall, about one in six Gold Coast residents are aged 65 years and over, which is moderately higher than the national figure. The number and proportion of the population aged 65 years and over is increasing over time in line with the general ageing of the Australian population. The age profile of internal migrants shows gains in all age groups, with around one quarter aged 45-64 years and one in seven aged 65 years and over. Some areas of the Gold Coast, and neighbouring Tweed Shire (NSW) have very high proportions of people aged 65 years and over, such as Tweed Heads South, Runaway Bay and Coombabah.

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