Last week the ABS released its annual births data. It confirmed the steady decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in Australia over the past decade. However at the same time, the number of births remains at historically high levels. This juxtaposition is a great example of why numbers and rates provide greater insights into the drivers of population change and the impact on age cohorts. The annual births data also presents an opportunity to examine trends in smaller geographic regions. Read on to find out more.
How many births are there in Australia?
In 2019, there were 305,832 births registered in Australia, a 3% decline from the 315,147 births registered in 2018. The key word here is registered. Although most births are registered the year in which they occur, there are occasions when processing lags impact the data. The ABS explains that births in NSW were higher in 2018 due to processing lags and other measures, which may have artificially inflated the figure for that year.
Birth registrations have topped 300,000 since 2008, with the exception of 2014 when the number just fell short (299,697).
What is the fertility rate?
Despite the high number of births in Australia, the TFR has recorded a steady decline over the past decade. The figure stood at 1.66 in 2019, the lowest on record. The TFR can be explained as the number of children each woman can expect to have during her lifetime and is a critical social indicator.
The TFR differs by state and region. Victoria and the ACT recorded the lowest rates in 2019 (1.53 and 1.57 respectively), whereas the Northern Territory (NT) recorded the highest (1.84). The NT typically records the highest TFR in Australia, partly on account of its larger Indigenous Australian population. Until recently, the TFR in the NT was above 2.1 ie above replacement level.
Fertility trends in Victoria
The map below shows the 2019 TFR for LGAs in Victoria. As mentioned above, Victoria recorded a TFR of just 1.53 in 2019. This was well below the 21st century peak of around 1.8-1.9 recorded between 2007 and 2009. In 2019, there were 77,220 births registered in Victoria, compared to 78,488 in 2018.
The Victorian TFR of 1.53 masks a great deal of spatial diversity. In general, LGAs in Melbourne had lower TFRs, and they were higher in rural areas. The lowest TFRs were found in inner Melbourne. For instance, the City of Melbourne recorded a TFR of just 0.74. This is the lowest rate recorded since 2000 (and possibly the lowest on record). The City of Melbourne consistently records a very low TFR due to the unique composition of its population ie high number of international students, who are unlikely to have children during their studies.
Other LGAs with a low TFR include Stonnington (1.02), Yarra (1.05) and Port Phillip (1.07). Furthermore, a number of LGAs in Melbourne's east, as well as the inner north and west, also recorded a TFR below the Victorian average.
The highest TFRs in metropolitan Melbourne were recorded in the western suburbs and outer south-east. Wyndham (2.12) recorded the highest rate, followed by Cardinia (2.1). These LGAs have populations with a higher proportion of young couples and families who are starting (or adding to ) their families.
LGAs in regional Victoria recorded TFRs above the state average. The highest was recorded in West Wimmera Shire (2.77), followed by Loddon (2.48) and Swan Hill (2.45). West Wimmera is an example of where rates and numbers need to be considered when explaining how and why populations are changing. In 2019, there were just 40 births registered in West Wimmera, against 37 deaths. This results in natural increase of just 3 persons. Other population data shows that out migration from the Shire contributes to population decline. In other words, the high fertility rate is not enough to offset out migration, and this, coupled with the number of deaths, explains the dynamics of population change in this LGA.
COVID impacts
History tells us that fertility rates decline in times of economic and social uncertainty eg 1930s, WW2. Will the impacts of COVID-19 result in similar trends in the early 2020s?
There are some key points to consider. Firstly, fertility rates were already declining in the years before COVID-19, so any impacts need to be considered in light of this. Babies born in 2020 were (on the whole) the result of decisions made prior to the pandemic. We won't know the actual numbers of births until the data is released by the ABS. It's the choices made by women now that will impact on fertility rates in the future ie 2021 and beyond. Furthermore, more recent economic recessions have not seen dramatic declines in fertility compared to the 1930s. In the early 1990s (the last major recession in Australia), the TFR hovered around 1.8-1.9. However the rate continued to decline throughout the rest of the 1990s, even as the economy continued to recover.
Secondly, the decline in overseas migration is likely to have a larger impact due to the lower than expected number of young adults in the population. This will impact the number of births in particular, due to the younger age profile of overseas migrants. Many go on to have their children in Australia, but if there is limited (or negative) overseas migration, then prospective parents will have their children elsewhere. On the other hand, returning Australians may counter some of this impact. These impacts are yet to be seen and will continue to depend on the length of time the Australian border is closed to overseas migration.
Summary
Australia's total fertility rate has declined steadily in recent years, and data for 2019 confirms the continuation of this trend. Australia's TFR was 1.66 in 2019, the lowest on record. Amongst the states and territories, the TFR ranged from 1.53 in Victoria, to 1.84 in the Northern Territory. Within Victoria there are wide differences in the fertility rate. Inner Melbourne has the lowest TFRs, and rural areas the highest. Despite the decline in the TFR, the number of births remains at historically high levels. Birth registrations in 2019 totalled more than 305,000. COVID-19 is likely to impact on birth numbers and the fertility rate in coming years, but the scale of the impact is uncertain.
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