We are very lucky in Australia that we have access to a wide range of quality data that informs the characteristics of our population. But how do we compare internationally? In this blog I compare Australia's demographic characteristics with all other countries in the world. This is spatial analysis on a global scale!
International statistics
The statistics compiled for this blog are sourced from the United Nations Population Division. They collect data from statistical agencies around the world and release it periodically. While this does allow analysis for comparative purposes, readers should note that not all statistical agencies are made equally, nor are standards uniform across the world. There may also be some issues with regards timeliness, and in fact, most of the 2020 figures presented here are estimates based on recent trends. However for the purpose of this blog, the data passes the pub test.
In all charts, 201 countries are represented, and Australia is shown in green.
Median age
The chart below shows the median age for all countries in the world in 2020. The median age depicts the point at which half the population is younger, and the other half older. It's considered a more accurate measure than the average, which can be skewed by outliers.
The youngest population was reported in Niger (15.2 years) and the oldest was Japan (48.4 years). The population ageing issues in Japan were discussed in a blog I wrote in 2019. Australia's median age in 2020 was 37.9 years, ranking 58th, just behind New Zealand (38.0 years). This places Australia in the second quartile.
There were more than 30 countries where the median age was less than 20 years, the majority of which are in Africa. At the other end of the scale, more than 40 countries had a median age of more than 40 years. Most of these were in Europe, with a handful in the Caribbean and Asia. In some Caribbean countries, the median age has more than doubled in 50 years. For example, Martinique had a median age of 19.7 years in 1970, increasing sharply to 47.3 years in 2020, ranking third on a global scale. The main reason was a sharp decline in the fertility rate in the last decades of the twentieth century, coupled with high levels of out-migration of young adults.
Life expectancy
Australia has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, reflecting a good health system and low infant mortality. In 2019, life expectancy was 83.4 years, placing us sixth in the world. The United Nations data for 2015-2020, as shown in the graph below, indicates life expectancy of 83.2 years in Australia. This results in a ranking of eighth in the world and easily in the first quartile. There are three countries where life expectancy exceeds 84 years - Hong Kong, Japan and Macao.
At the other end of the scale, the Central African Republic has the lowest life expectancy of all countries, at just 52.7 years. There are 13 countries with a life expectancy below 60 years, all of which are located in Africa. In fact, most African countries are in the lowest quartile in terms of the life expectancy ranking. However there are a handful of countries located elsewhere in this group, including our close neighbour, Papua New Guinea (64.2 years).
Life expectancy has increased in all countries over the last 50 years. Australia's life expectancy increased by about 12 years compared to 1965-70. Many countries far exceeded this, particularly those where major improvements to health and quality of life have been made in more recent years. For instance, life expectancy in the Maldives has increased by 36 years since 1965-70, reaching 78.47 years in 2015-20.
In contrast, countries in eastern Europe recorded minimal increases in life expectancy over the last 50 years. Notably, Ukraine and Russia recorded a decline between 1965-70 and 1995-2000, but have increased marginally since. Economic upheaval, and declining health standards epitomised by high rates of smoking and alcohol consumption, are thought to be responsible for the decline. This is still a problem in Russia, especially amongst males, but health measures implemented in recent years seem to have contributed to the recent increase.
Fertility rate
The fertility rate is shown in the chart below. The African country of Niger was at the extreme end of the rankings again, with the highest fertility rate of 6.95. That's right - almost 7 babies per woman. That's a lot of children, and a primary reason why their median age is the lowest in the world. Niger's fertility rate has seen little change in 50 years - in 1965-1970 the rate was 7.55, before increasing slightly to 7.7 in 1995-2000. Only one other country recorded a fertility rate in excess of 6.0 in 2015-2020, and that was Somalia (6.12).
At the other end of the scale, South Korea recorded the lowest fertility rate in 2015-2020 (1.11). This is a marked change from 1965-70, when the rate recorded was 4.65. However by the end of the century, it was well below replacement level (1.50).
There are almost 80 countries where the fertility rate is below replacement level. These countries are scattered across the world, but the lowest rates are recorded in parts of Asia and eastern Europe. Three countries (Hungary, Czechia and Latvia) have recorded below replacement fertility since 1965-70, whereas other countries recorded very large declines. The most famous example is China, where the fertility rate was more than 6.0 in 1965-70. The implementation of the "one child policy" led to a large decline in the fertility rate, such that by 1995-2000 it was 1.62. The one child policy was abolished in 2013, but there has only been a small increase in the fertility rate since (1.69 in 2015-2020).
Australia's fertility rate was 1.83, ranked 63rd in the world (second quartile). This was a slight increase on the 1995-2000 figure of 1.79, but a marked decline from the 2.87 recorded in 1965-1970. This was a period in Australian history when a high fertility rate was recorded, before it declined rapidly in the 1970s.
Older people
The proportion of people aged 65 years and over varies widely across the world. It is influenced by life expectancy, death rates (including the cause of death), and migration. In total there are 22 countries where more than 20% of the population are aged 65 years and over. As mentioned above, Japan has the highest median age, so unsurprisingly also has the highest proportion of older people (28.4%). This proportion is far ahead of second-placed Italy (23.3%). Population ageing in Japan is reinforced by other demographic trends such as a low fertility rate and limited overseas migration.
At the other end of the scale, just 1.3% of the population in the United Arab Emirates are aged 65 years and over, closely followed by Qatar (1.7%). Both of these countries are characterised by a large expatriate workforce and associated high levels of overseas migration. As such more than half of the population are aged 25-44 years. The overwhelming majority of countries with less than 3% of older people in the population are located in Africa and the Middle East, but the drivers are different. Many African countries are characterised by high fertility rates (resulting in more children), but low life expectancy means that few people even reach the age of 65 years.
Older people comprise 16.2% of the population in Australia, ranking us 43rd in the world (second quartile). New Zealand has a similar proportion of older people in its population (16.4%). In Australia, the proportion of older people has doubled since 1970.
Summary
Comparing the demographic characteristics of Australia to the rest of the world puts our situation in perspective. Australia has one of the highest life expectancy figures in the world, ranking 8th globally (first quartile). On other measures, Australia ranks 58th on median age (second quartile), 139th on the fertility rate (third quartile) and 43rd on the proportion of older people (second quartile).
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