Each year the ABS releases data on the number of birth and death registrations across Australia. The data is important as it provides indicators of population change at the local level. Fertility trends differ widely across metropolitan and rural areas. What were the key trends in 2020?
How many births were there in 2020?
In 2020, there were 294,369 births registered in Australia. This was a 3.7% decline on the 305,832 births registered in 2019. The 2020 figure was the first time since 2014 that registered births did not exceed 300,000.
The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2020 was the lowest on record, at just 1.58 babies per woman, down from 1.66 in 2019. However there is considerable variation across the country. The highest rate was recorded in the Northern Territory (1.86) and the lowest in Victoria (1.43).
The decline in birth numbers and fertility may surprise some readers. There was speculation that COVID-19 lockdowns would create an environment for more births, and some hospitals were indicating an increase in demand for maternity services. However history tells us that in times of economic and social uncertainty, birth rates tend to decline. Moreover, the fertility rate recorded in 2020 is a continuation of a downward trend that has occurred since a 21st century high of 2.02 was recorded in 2008.
The lower number of births in 2020 should be viewed in a wider context to provide a better perspective. The chart below shows the number of births registered each year since 1970. Declining fertility rates indicate changes in the propensity of women to have children, but the actual number of children is critical from a planning perspective.
Birth registrations were relatively high in the early 1970s, but declined throughout the decade to reach a low of 223,129 in 1979. This is the lowest number of registrations recorded in the last 50 years. The TFR fell below replacement level in 1976, and has remained there since. There was a small increase in the 2000s, and the TFR almost approached replacement level in 2008 (2.02). This corresponded with an increase in birth numbers, but this was driven by higher levels of overseas migration which increased the size of the female population in family forming age groups. BDespite the decline in birth registrations in 2020, the total number is still historically high. Furthermore, it's only been two years since a record number of registrations were recorded and all these children are yet to hit the school education system. Depending on migration patterns and local variations in the fertility rate, this will be important for the planning of schools, facilities and teaching staff.
Fertility trends in Victoria
As noted above, Victoria recorded a fertility rate of just 1.43 in 2020, the lowest of all states and territories. There were 73,543 births registered in Victoria, the lowest number since 2015. This is not necessarily a COVID-19 related trend, as Victoria often records the lowest TFR in the country. The ACT (1.53) and South Australia (1.59) also have low fertility rates.
Despite the low TFR, there is considerable spatial variations in the rate. The 2020 TFRs for each LGA are shown in the map below. Higher TFRs do not necessarily equal a high number of births as it reflects propensity and the size of the female population.
There were 16 LGAs with a TFR above the replacement level of 2.1, and all were located in regional Victoria. The highest TFRs are located in western Victoria, as well as Towong Shire in the northeast. In 2020, the highest TFR was recorded in West Wimmera (3.06), followed by Buloke (2.65) and Loddon (2.61). However these are rural areas with small towns, and the total number of births across these three LGAs was just 172.
The TFR in West Wimmera has been increasing since 2014, and there has been a corresponding general increase in the number of births. However this is an LGA with a small and declining population. The TFR of 3.06 corresponds to 55 births, and at the same time there were 40 deaths registered. In other words, natural increase is very modest, and other ABS data shows that levels of out migration exceed this, hence resulting in a declining population.
The lowest TFRs were found in metropolitan Melbourne. There were four LGAs, all in the inner city, which recorded a TFR less than 1.0. These were Melbourne (0.68), Stonnington (0.9), Yarra (0.95) and Port Phillip (0.95). At this level, fertility is so low that not even one parent is replaced. Typically, these LGAs have young populations, such as university students who are renting, and therefore are not yet in the family forming stage of life.
In general the TFR increases with increasing distance from the CBD. The TFR in the eastern suburbs, inner north and west is under 1.4, but the highest rates are located in LGAs with new greenfield areas on the urban fringe. These typically attract young and prospective families, ie people with a higher propensity to have children.
Wyndham, on the western outskirts, recorded the highest TFR in metropolitan Melbourne (2.04), which is slightly below replacement level. Although the TFR was the lowest recorded in the last ten years, the number of births (4,850) is one of the highest on record. More than 4,800 births have been registered in Wyndham each year since 2018. This is one area of Melbourne where the provision of new childcare and schools are critical to support a growing population.
Summary
There were 294,369 births registrations in Australia in 2020, resulting in a TFR of 1.58. This was the lowest on record and a continuation of trends observed in the last decade. Victoria's TFR of 1.43 was the lowest in the country, but it masks considerable variation across the state. LGAs in western Victoria had the highest TFRs, and they were lowest in metropolitan Melbourne. The TFR is just one side of the story - still important to look at the numbers to get a complete picture and to inform service planning.
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