Population trends in South Australia

Population trends in South Australia are characterised by modest rates of change. However rates of population change have distinct spatial patterns. Parts of Adelaide and surrounding areas are growing rapidly, whereas some rural and remote areas are losing population. This blog provides an overview of population change in South Australia's LGAs in 2023-24, using data released annually by the ABS.

What is the population of South Australia?

At June 2024, the population of South Australia was 1.88 million. In the previous twelve months, the population increased by 25,040 persons, representing a growth rate of 1.4%. This compares with a growth rate of 2.0% for Australia. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, which has been at record levels for the past two years. In contrast, natural increase has been gradually declining over the last decade. South Australia has historically lost population to other parts of the country through interstate migration, but there were gains recorded during the peak pandemic years. However, during 2023-24 the state recorded a net interstate migration loss - reverting to the historic trend.

Based on a medium growth scenario, the population of South Australia is forecast to reach 2 million in 2031.

What is the population of Adelaide?

Adelaide is the fifth largest city in Australia, and reached a population of 1.47 million at June 2024. This was an increase of 1.5% over the previous year. Adelaide's growth accounted for the overwhelming majority of total growth in South Australia. This is due to its overwhelming size in relation to the rest of South Australia, but also the number of new residential areas on the urban fringe, job opportunities and overseas migration. 

What is the fastest growing LGA in South Australia?

The map below show population change by LGA in 2023-24. This clearly shows the strongest rates of growth were recorded in parts of Adelaide, as well as the Fleurieu and Eyre Peninsulas. No LGAs in the Adelaide metropolitan area recorded population loss. The City of Adelaide recorded the highest growth rate (4.1%), the third straight year of strong growth. This has come after a decline in 2021 due to the COVID pandemic when many overseas students left the country. 

Playford (3.8%) and Adelaide Plains (3.4%), both located on Adelaide's northern fringe, also grew strongly due to the growth of new residential areas. Adelaide Plains is a peri-urban LGA that has recorded strong growth over the last five years due to new residential estates around the town of Two Wells. However it is still a small LGA, with a population of just 11,300. On the other side of the city, Mount Barker continued its trajectory of strong growth, recording a growth rate of 3.1% to reach a population of 43,620.

More distant from Adelaide, Copper Coast recorded a growth rate of 2.2%. This LGA contains the towns of Wallaroo and Moonta, which are popular weekend and holiday destinations. The Fleurieu Peninsula and Murray Bridge also recorded above average growth, continuing long standing trends.

What LGAs are declining in population?

In contrast, many rural and remote LGAs recorded population decline. A feature of South Australia's settlement pattern is the large remote outback area which is not part of the LGA structure - hence the moniker "Unincorporated South Australia". Its sheer size somewhat distorts the nature of population change, but this is a sparsely settled region with a population of around 3,000 people. Since 2014, the population has declined by about one-quarter, mainly due to out-migration. However the volume of loss appears to have slowed, and in 2023-24 population loss amounted to just four people. 

The LGAs that recorded population loss have rural or mining economies. As a result, population change is tied to structural and climate factors. However, many of these LGAs have small population, and hence a decline of -1.5% - as recorded in Coober Pedy - only amounts to 24 people. 

Abandoned farm near Peterborough (2025)

Several small LGAs in the mid-north region are continuing the trend of steady population loss. These include Mt Remarkable (-0.8%), Peterborough and Flinders Ranges (both -0.1%). Drought continues to impact these areas, impacting on rural economies and farming practices. On a recent trip to this region I learnt about Goyder's Line, which marked the limits of arable land based on the amount of rainfall. There are many ruins of stone farm houses dotted through the landscape, a testament to the struggles of farming in marginal areas and people leaving the land.  Historical Census data shows that the area generally covered by Flinders Ranges Council had a population of approximately 3,935 in 1911, compared to just 1,686 in 2021. In a contemporary setting, rural communities still struggle with demographic trends such as the out migration of young people, but climate change is playing an increasingly important factor.

Summary

South Australia's population is growing at a modest rate, driven primarily by overseas migration. At June 2024, the population was 1.88 million. The LGAs with the strongest population growth are in the central city, or the northern fringe. No LGAs in Adelaide recorded a loss of population. Copper Coast recorded the strongest population growth in regional South Australia. However many LGAs, particularly those with rural or mining economies, recorded population loss. This is consistent with trends recorded for many years.