Victoria at 7 million

At some point during the first months of 2025, Victoria's population reached 7 million. This milestone seemed to slip under the radar, with almost no reporting in mainstream media. Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, and in recent years population change has been extremely volatile. Let's have a look at Victoria's path to a population of 7 million.

What is the population?

At March 2025, the population of Victoria was 7.05 million. In the twelve months prior, the population increased by 124,600 which represented a growth rate of 1.8%. This is slightly higher than the Australian figure of 1.6% over the same period. Western Australia recorded the strongest growth rate for the year ended March 2025 (2.3%).

Peaks and troughs

Since 1901, Victoria's population has grown steadily, with year on year fluctuations. At that time, the population was 1.2 million. It wasn't until 1945 that the population reached 2 million, and in 1963 the population reached 3 million.

Population growth was strongest in the 1950s, when the growth rate often exceeded 3% per annum. This was a time of significant post war migration to Australia, but also a higher fertility rate resulting in a large cohort of children (the baby boom). From the 1960s, growth rates declined but the population continued to grow steadily. In 1983 the population reached 4 million, but it took until the first decade of the 21st century to pass 5 million people. This was partly due to economic recession and a high volume of interstate migration loss in the early 1990s.

It wasn't until the late 2000s, when overseas migration began to increase, that Victoria once again recorded strong growth. Between 2008 and 2017, the growth rate often exceeded 2% - not as high as the 1950s but in terms of volume, the annual amounts often exceeded 100,000 people. This rapid growth meant that it took only 11 years for the population to grow from 5 to 6 million people.

Victoria's population has only recorded a decline on three occasions - 1916, 1917, and more recently, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted population change by way of a loss of population interstate as well as negative net overseas migration. In 2020-21, the population declined by 67,000 people, but this amount was "recovered" the following year when the population grew by a similar amount. 

These COVID-19 trends were well and truly blown out of the park by a sharp rebound in overseas migration. In 2022-23 the Victorian population grew by almost 182,000 people (2.8%) - a record amount. The increase in overseas migration occurred across Australia, and in many parts of the world as travel became more accessible with the easing of COVID related restrictions. In 2023-24 the volume of population change was still historically high (153,650) but lower than the previous year. It is likely to decline further as global migration finds its new equilibrium.

Drivers of population change

The graph below illustrates some of these trends. It shows the components of population change since 1983. Migration is the most volatile component and is best shown through the huge decline in net overseas migration during the COVID-19 pandemic. For almost two years movement of non-citizens into Australia was severely curtailed, and many people - particularly international students - left the country. 

Interstate migration is also volatile. Historically, Victoria has lost population to other parts of Australia. Since the turn of the century that trend has reversed, and Victoria has gained population from other parts of Australia in most years. This peaked in 2017 when Victoria gained a net of 16,500 people through interstate migration. 

During the COVID years interstate migration fell off the proverbial cliff, recording numbers not seen since the early 1990s. This is clearly seen in the graph above, where the green line dips sharply after 2020. In the years ended March 2021 and 2022, there was a net loss of 29,990 and 33,730 people from Victoria to the rest of Australia. While some attributed this to COVID lockdowns, the reality is more complex due to the curtailed movement induced via restrictions. 

Since that time however, the net loss has gradually diminished to the point where in the March 2025 quarter, Victoria recorded the first net gain of people via interstate migration since 2019. It remains to be seen whether this trend will continue, but it is clear the large wave of migration away from Victoria is now more of a ripple.

In contrast to migration, natural increase (the difference between the number of births and deaths) is far more stable. Trends tend to change over many years. Despite a low fertility rate (1.44 in 2023-24), the number of births remains historically high. In fact, the 79,900 births recorded in the year to March 2025 was the highest on record. However this comes after two years of lower birth numbers - the 74,800 births recorded in 2024 was the lowest for more than 10 years.

The number of deaths have been steadily increasing over many years. Since 2020 the number has exceeded 40,000 per year, reaching 46,100 for the year ended March 2025. This is a result of an ageing population - as most deaths occur at the upper end of the age spectrum. However since 2020 it's likely that COVID-19 deaths have contributed to the increased number of deaths as these are also concentrated in older age groups.

Summary

Despite the impact of COVID-19 on population trends, Victoria's population growth has largely returned to pre-COVID levels and reached 7 million in early 2025. Victoria's population growth continues to be driven by overseas migration. The large interstate migration loss associated with the COVID years appears to have turned around. A continuation of current trends could see Victoria return to a state that gains population from other parts of Australia. Despite a low fertility rate, almost 80,000 births were recorded in the year to March 2025. The number of deaths continues to increase steadily, mainly due to the ageing population.