How many migrants come to Australia?
Migration, whether it be internal or from overseas, is the most volatile component of population change. In the last decade, the volume of net overseas migration (NOM) in Australia has increased significantly, reaching a peak of 315,690 in 2008. In 2017, the level of NOM (preliminary estimate) was 240,420. Migration is the major driver of population change in Australia, accounting for 62% of growth in 2017.
What type of migrants come to Australia?
Migration is a multi-faceted and complex process to measure. The ABS statistics presented here measure the visa held at the time of arrival in Australia. It's well known that many people change their visa type over time - the journey from student visa to permanent migration is a common one involving several years and several types of visas.
Behind all the political/talk back radio/social commentator hype is the real migration story of the 21st century - the shifting balance between permanent and temporary migration. In 2017, 61% of total arrivals were temporary visa holders. This includes international students, 457 visa holders and working holiday makers. This compares with 44% in 2004. Permanent settlers (who include former temporary visa holders) are not driving the higher levels of migration to Australia. In fact, their numbers are relatively stable as it is influenced by migration quotas set by the Commonwealth Government.
Unfortunately the migration debate has been hijacked by political interests and various commentators, many of whom have limited expertise in demography. For this reason, it's always worth returning to the evidence base. The chart below shows the level of NOM by visa type over the period 2004-2017. It clearly shows the volatility in the numbers and the dominance of temporary visas. Aside from a spike in 2008 (when NOM was at a record level), the number of NOM temporary visa arrivals has been increasing steadily.
The most common temporary visa classes are those associated with international students ie higher education and vocational. Aside from the period 2010-13 when vocational students numbers declined considerably, student visas comprised half or more of temporary NOM over the period 2004-17. In 2017 student visas comprised 56% of temporary NOM, dominated by the higher education category.
The number of temporary skilled visas (457s) has been volatile over the period 2004-17 in response to demand for labour and changing government policy. Their numbers reached a peak in 2008 when NOM was at its peak, and there was another spike in 2012 when 457 NOM was more than 32,000. However since this time their numbers have declined as a result of tightening controls and reduced demand for labour on mining projects in Western Australia (WA). In fact, WA recorded 457 NOM loss in 2014-16 ie more 457 visa holders left Australia than arrived. I recently blogged about the demographic impact of the end of the mining boom in WA - see here for more information.
Interestingly, the number of New Zealand (NZ) citizens have also declined in recent years, perhaps an indication of improved economic conditions in that country. NZ migration to Australia reached a peak in 2011 and 2012, when NOM was more than 42,000. However NOM has declined sharply since, and the volume recorded in 2017 was 4,880. In recent years, NOM levels in NZ have reached record levels, partly due to NZ citizens returning after living in Australia. The reciprocal migration arrangements between Australia and NZ do facilitate easier movement, which means that people can respond more quickly to changing economic and family circumstances.
Humanitarian arrivals attract a lot of negative commentary (too much to link) but the data clearly shows that they do not comprise a major part of the annual intake. They form part of the permanent migration statistics and apart from a spike in 2016, the level of NOM has been relatively steady since 2004. The 2016 spike, when NOM reached 22,480, was a result of a special intake of Syrians due to the ongoing civil war and refugee crisis. Even with this additional intake, humanitarian NOM was still less than 10% of total NOM.
The impact on Sydney and Melbourne
It's no surprise that the current debates around migration are seen through the eyes of frustrated commuters on public transport, road users encountering traffic congestion, and housing affordability issues in Sydney and Melbourne. As global cities, they attract the majority of migrants coming to Australia, so changes in the level of NOM also impact on the way they grow and change. The chart below shows the types of visa holders settling in NSW and Victoria in 2017.
The level of NOM was slightly higher in NSW compared to Victoria, but overall there was very little difference in the types of visa holders. Higher education and visitor visas, both of which are temporary, had the highest volume of NOM in both States. NSW had a higher number of working holiday and permanent skilled visa holders, which accounted for most of the difference in the State NOM totals.
Summary
The preliminary NOM for Australia in 2017 was 240,420 which represented 62% of the population growth. Over time the balance of NOM has shifted towards temporary visa holders. Temporary visa holders comprised 61% of total NOM, compared to 44% in 2004. International students comprise the largest category of temporary visa holders. The volume of NOM 457 visa holders and NZ citizens has declined in recent years in response to changing economic conditions. Humanitarian visas continue to comprise a minor component of total NOM, despite a spike in 2016. NSW and Victoria, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, receive the greatest number of overseas migrants but the types of visa holders are similar.
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