Who is moving to Tasmania?

With the current focus on immigration and strong population growth in Sydney and Melbourne, the resurgence of Tasmania and its demographic fortunes tend to be overlooked.  The "Apple Isle" has been recording modest growth for many years, and is ageing faster than other parts of Australia.  Just a few short years ago the demographic challenges associated with an ageing population and out-migration of young adults were the reality.  Since 2011, Tasmania's rate and volume of growth have increased.  Read on to find out more about the drivers behind this trend.

Tasmanian population - the basics

At June 2017 the population of Tasmania was 522,152, with a growth rate of 0.9% on the previous twelve months.  Net overseas migration was the largest contributor to population growth (44%), followed by net interstate migration (33%) and natural increase (23%).  The volume and rate of growth has been increasing steadily since 2011.

From a spatial perspective, the strongest growth is concentrated mostly in and around Hobart.  The LGA of Sorell, located east of the Hobart metropolitan area, recorded a growth rate of 2.0% in 2016-17.  Sorell is around 25km from central Hobart and consists of a number of small towns offering semi-rural/coastal living within commuting distance of the city.  Strong growth was also recorded in Huon Valley, south west of Hobart (1.9%).  West Tamar Council, stretching from the outskirts of Launceston to the coast, and Flinders (Island) also grew by 1.9%.  However it should be noted that the growth in Flinders was from a small base of less than 1,000 persons.  In terms of volume, the LGAs of Hobart City (767), Clarence (683) and Kingborough (589) were the highest.

Despite the attention focused on increased growth, there are still many parts of Tasmania recording a loss in population.  In line with long standing trends, these tend to be located in rural and remote areas with small populations.  The population of West Coast LGA declined by -1.1% in 2016-17, and that of Central Highlands by -1.0%.

What is driving population growth in Tasmania?

The chart below shows the components of population change in Tasmania since 1982.  One of the benefits of showing this graph over a longer period of time is to get an appreciation of how volatile the migration components can be.  This is certainly the case in Tasmania, particularly net interstate migration.  Throughout the 1990s and in the first half of the 2010s, Tasmania lost population through migration to other parts of Australia.  Since 2015 net interstate migration has been positive and has increased each year since.  If current trends persist (and more recently quarterly data suggests it has) then it's possible that net interstate migration in Tasmania could approach the previous peak of 3,140 persons recorded in 2003.  

In common with most parts of Australia, net overseas migration to Tasmania is relatively high.  The net gain through overseas migration has been more than 2,000 since 2016.  Again, March 2018 quarter data suggests the current trends are persisting, though it should be pointed out that net overseas migration does tend to be higher in the March quarter due to the influx of overseas students.

These increases in migration from interstate and overseas are in contrast to the decline in the level of natural increase.  Despite a small resurgence in the 2000s, natural increase has declined each year since 2011.  This is the result of an ageing population, exacerbated by out migration of young adults.  Can migration turn this trend around?

Where do interstate migrants come from?

Greater Hobart receives the overwhelming bulk of interstate migrants.  In 2016-17, more than 80% of the total moved to the Greater Hobart area, which includes the metropolitan area and surrounds, including the Coal Valley and New Norfolk. Although the Tasmania government is targeting Sydney residents in an attempt to increase population growth, the results are yet to be seen in the data.  In 2016-17 the net migration gain between Greater Sydney and Tasmania was just 35 persons (1,788 arrivals, 1,753 departures).  The net gain from Regional NSW was far higher - 889 persons, consisting of 1,253 arrivals and 364 departures.  The net gain from Western Australia was also relatively high (648 persons) which is not surprising given the net migration loss from that state since the end of the mining boom.

On the other hand, Tasmania has long lost population to Victoria.  Proximity and access probably play a greater role here (one hour flight from Hobart to Melbourne, 50 minutes Launceston to Melbourne), particularly for young adults seeking a university degree that may not be available in Hobart.  In 2016-17, Greater Melbourne gained 395 people from Tasmania (2,575 arrivals, 2,970 departures).  

Age structure of interstate migrants

The chart below shows the net interstate migration by age in 2016-17.  In line with long standing trends, Tasmania continues to lose young adults (15-24 year olds) to other parts of Australia.  However gains were made in all other age cohorts.  

In many respects the age profile of interstate migrants is reminiscent of coastal areas of NSW and Victoria ie loss of young adults, gain of families and older adults/retirees.  Young adults are highly mobile as they transition through major life events such as finishing school or university, moving out of home and forming their own households.  

Summary

Tasmania's volume and rate of growth has been increasing since 2011.  In 2016-17, the population was 522,152.  While overseas migration is the largest contributor to population growth, interstate migration is receiving more attention.  The data indicates that while Tasmania gains population from NSW and Western Australia, it loses population to Victoria.  Furthermore, the continuing loss of 15-24 year olds from the state indicates that long standing trends still present demographic challenges for the future.