Yorke Peninsula population trends

This week I'm taking a case study approach in my blog by focussing on South Australia's Yorke Peninsula.  I recently spent a long weekend there, raising my curiosity levels with regards to its demographic characteristics.  For those unfamiliar with the region, it's the part of South Australia located to the west of Adelaide that's shaped like a boot - ie the part that looks like Italy.  The settlement pattern is dominated by agricultural landscapes with a number of small towns.  What are the key demographic trends in this part of South Australia?

What is the population of the Yorke Peninsula?

This blog will use the Yorke Peninsula SA3 spatial unit as this reflects the popular geographic understanding of this area.  At June 2017, the population of the Yorke Peninsula was 25,931, an increase of 0.6% over the previous twelve months.  This is a similar growth rate to South Australia as a whole.  The only other SA3s in regional South Australia to grow faster over the same period were Barossa and Fleurieu - Kangaroo Island (both 0.9%).  Both of these SA3s are closer to Adelaide and therefore well within its economic catchment, making them attractive to people seeking a semi-rural environment but with access to jobs, services and entertainment.  

The chart below shows population change in Yorke Peninsula over the period 2007-17.  The population grew by around 2,500 persons over this time.  Growth rates have varied considerably, ranging from a high of 1.5% in 2008-09 to just 0.2% in 2010-11.  In 2011-12 the growth rate was 1.4% but has steadily decreased since.

Population growth is not uniform across the Yorke Peninsula.  Generally, growth is stronger in the larger towns whereas rural areas are stable or losing population - a trend not uncommon across regional areas of Australia.  The SA2s of Kadina, Moonta and Wallaroo  all recorded modest to strong growth.  These towns are located in the north of the region around 15km apart from each other, and are known as the "copper triangle" towns because of their mining heritage.  Together, these SA2s have a population of approaching 15,000 persons.  Moonta recorded the strongest growth in 2016-17 (1.9%).  This is a historic town but the SA2 also incorporates newer settlements on the coast at Moonta Bay and Port Hughes.  These are typical coastal towns with high amenity, making them popular with retirees and other sea changers.  The two hour drive from Adelaide also puts them within easy reach of people seeking weekenders and holiday homes, and as such there are a large proportion of unoccupied dwellings.

In contrast, the SA2 of Yorke Peninsula - South lost population in 2016-17 (-0.5%).  This is predominantly an agricultural area and the towns are smaller.  Many of them were originally established to support their agricultural surrounds as well as functioning as ports for the movement of goods.  However this function has disappeared over time, resulting in population decline.  Many no longer support a viable commercial base, so people have to travel further for services such as groceries, petrol and education.  By road, the southern part of the Yorke Peninsula is at least three hours drive from Adelaide which puts them beyond commuting distance but makes them suitable for weekenders and holiday homes.

The Yorke Peninsula has an older age profile

The chart below shows the age structure of the Yorke Peninsula and how this compares with South Australia.  Clearly, the Yorke Peninsula has an older age structure - almost 47% of the Yorke Peninsula population are aged 55 years and over.  The equivalent figure for South Australia is 31%.

At the other end of the age spectrum, there is a lower proportion of children and teenagers on the Yorke Peninsula, but the differences compared to South Australia are relatively minor.  Around 20% of the Yorke Peninsula population are aged 0-19 years, compared to 24% of the South Australian population.  However the proportion of 20-44 year olds on the Yorke Peninsula is much lower than the South Australian figure (21% and 32% respectively).  

These patterns are typical of rural and coastal areas, particularly those that are popular with retirees.  The high proportion of older persons suggests some in migration of retirees which is not unsurprising given the high level of natural amenity.  ABS internal migration data confirms that a significant proportion of in-migration to the Yorke Peninsula are persons aged 45 years and over.  In addition, the much lower proportion of adults suggests some out migration, which is also apparent in the ABS internal migration data.  Again, this is typical of rural areas where young adults leave for employment and education opportunities elsewhere.

What is driving population growth and change?

The older age structure of the Yorke Peninsula is not conducive to growth via natural increase.  From a demographic perspective it's quite simple - older people don't have babies and the relatively small number of women in fertile age cohorts means that there are not enough births to overcome the number of deaths.  This is compounded by out migration of young adults.  The Yorke Peninsula recorded natural decrease of 78 persons in 2016-17 ie more deaths than births.  As a result, the population can only grow through migration.  In 2016-17 internal migration ie from other parts of Australia, was the main contributor to this (226 persons) and there was a small gain of 15 persons via net overseas migration.

Another reason for the modest growth rate is the high proportion of unoccupied dwellings.  2016 Census data shows that 41% of dwellings on the Yorke Peninsula are unoccupied, with higher rates in the south and in coastal towns.  For example, just 12% of dwellings in Kadina SA2 are unoccupied, compared with 57% in Yorke Peninsula - South SA2.  This relates to the high amenity of the area and its tourism and recreation function.  It means that a significant proportion of dwellings are built not for residence, but for other purposes such as a weekender, holiday home or second dwelling.  The number of dwellings approved and constructed may look high, but it masks their intended use.  The high proportion of unoccupied dwellings has implications for services and planning, because it means that populations spike at particular times of the year.  This is an issue  common to many areas of high amenity around Australia.

The photo above shows the Copper Cove development at Wallaroo.  This consists of around 500 lots, which are slowly being developed.  The high rise building on the left is a hotel.  Note the waterfront properties and berths - attractive to those into boating and water activities, but nonetheless a niche market.  I suspect it will take a long time to develop because of this.  Depending on the scale and speed of development, it will create jobs which may encourage some in migration.  This development reminded me of the Hindmarsh Island Marina development south of Adelaide, another large scale project which has been underway since the mid 2000s.

Summary

The Yorke Peninsula had a population of 25,931 at June 2017, increasing by 0.6% over the previous year.  Over the last ten years growth rates have been volatile, and the annual growth rate has been declining since 2011-12.  Within the Yorke Peninsula, the copper triangle towns of Kadina, Moonta and Wallaroo recorded the strongest growth in 2016-17.  In contrast, Yorke Peninsula - South lost population.  The Yorke Peninsula has an older age structure compared to South Australia, with almost half of the population aged 55 years and over.  This goes a long way to explain the modest population growth, because the older age structure means there are more deaths than births (natural decrease).  As a result, the population can only grow through migration, which consists primarily of older persons.  The Yorke Peninsula is also characterised by a high proportion of unoccupied dwellings, which reflects its role as a weekender and holiday destination.