The basics
In 2017 there were 309,142 births registered in Australia. This is a slight decline on the 2016 figure of 311,104, which was the highest on record. Birth registrations declined in every State and Territory except for NSW and the ACT.
The number of births in Australia is shown in the table below. For a longer time series, please refer to the following link on the ABS website.
While the TFR is an important social barometer, it's clear that the decline in the TFR is not necessarily matched by a decline in the number of births. High levels of net overseas migration provide some explanation. Overseas migrants to Australia tend to be younger, and as such they increase the size of the cohort of women in family forming age groups.
The actual number of births provides the key for future levels of education funding required. Quite simply, large numbers of births indicate that primary schools will see increases in enrolments five years later. Overcrowded primary schools have been making headlines for some years now, particularly in inner city areas of our major cities. Children born in 2008, the first year births exceeded 300,000 in Australia, will be starting high school from 2020. Already there have been reports of potential overcrowding situations in schools in Melbourne's west. It's a great example of how policy makers need to be aware of how changes in age structure (in this case through high birth numbers) can influence demand for key services such as education.
Trends throughout Australia
Birth registrations declined in Victoria and Western Australia in 2017, but the numbers recorded in 2016 were the highest on record for both states. In other words, the numbers are still historically high. The number of births in Victoria was 82,094 in 2017 compared to 82,892 in 2016. Since 2007, the number of births has been above 70,000. Prior to this current "baby boom", the last time Victoria recorded 70,000 births was in the early 1970s.
The ACT recorded more than 6,000 births in 2017, the highest on record. In fact, it was a 20% increase on the 2016 figure of 5,152. The TFR also increased sharply, from 1.56 to 1.83Birth numbers in the ACT reached 5,000 in 2010 (another milestone) and have remained above that number since. Why did the ACT record this large increase? Part of the answer lies deep in the explanatory notes accompanying the data release, and is due to the late processing of registrations - a pitfall of this dataset. Nevertheless, an increase in registrations should also indicate an increase in births.
Despite data indicating a recent population surge in Tasmania, the number of births continues to decline. In 2017 there were 5,610 births, the lowest number recorded since the early 2000s. In 2008, the number of births in Tasmania reached a peak of 6,775 and fell below 6,000 in 2014. In terms of age structure, Tasmania is Australia's oldest state and therefore the number of deaths tends to be higher. In 2017 there were 4,780 deaths, resulting in natural increase of just 830 persons. If current trends persist, it's likely that Tasmania will reach a situation of natural decrease, whereby there are more deaths than births. If this occurs, then the only way the population can increase is through net migration. The latest figures from the ABS suggests that net migration has increased in the last two years, which I have previously blogged about.
South Australia recorded the lowest TFR in 2017 (1.68). Birth registrations numbered 19,072, the lowest since 2006. South Australia is another ageing State, and the out-migration of young adults compounds the low fertility situation. To put this into perspective, there were more births in Greater Perth (27,251) than there were for all South Australia in 2017.
The Northern Territory historically has the highest TFR in Australia, in part due to the higher rate of fertility amongst Indigenous Australians. This is still the case in 2017, however the TFR fell below 2.0 in 2016 ie below replacement level. This significant demographic event appears to have flown below the radar. In light of moves by the Northern Territory government to increase population growth, a declining fertility rate makes this harder to achieve.
Summary
The number of birth registrations in Australia remains high, with more than 309,000 recorded in 2017. Registrations declined in every State and Territory except for NSW and the ACT, but remain high overall. Delays in data processing resulted in a higher than expected number of registrations for the ACT. The Northern Territory has the highest TFR in the country, but it is still below replacement level. Conversely, South Australia has the lowest fertility rate and the number of births continues a downward trend. It's a similar story in Tasmania, where the number of births and deaths continue to converge, potentially resulting in natural decrease in coming years.
Nice analysis. Shows that although we think we have sex and age standardised statistics like TFR, it still requires thoughtful digging deeper by a demographer to tell the real story.
ReplyDeleteThanks Bruce. Obviously the TFR is important, but the actual numbers determine school and university enrolments in years to come - which of course need to be planned for.
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