Hobart and Launceston - compare the pair

Tasmania's urban hierarchy is distinctive in that there are two major cities, Hobart and Launceston.  This is unusual in the Australian context as many states have a state capital that is many times larger than the next largest urban centre (urban primacy).  Both cities were established in the early 1800s.  Over the last two hundred years, despite their different histories and economic fortunes, they have grown into the major cities they are today.  From a demographic perspective, how different are Hobart and Launceston?  To paraphrase a superannuation commercial, let's "compare the pair".

Significant Urban Areas

The different size and spread of urban development in both cities means that selecting a geography for comparison is challenging.  For this analysis, I've chosen Significant Urban Area (SUA) because it encompasses the urban area of both cities.  LGA is not appropriate because the City of Launceston also includes parts of the surrounding rural area to the east.  In Hobart, there are several LGAs within the urban area, so it's more appropriate to choose SUA in this instance.

What is their population?

Hobart is the largest city in Tasmania and at 2017 the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) was 210,340.  The ERP reached the milestone of 200,000 people in 2012-13.  Over the period 2007-17, the average annual growth rate was 1.0% per annum.  In recent years Hobart's growth rate has increased, such that it was only just below the national average in 2016-17 (1.6% in Australia, 1.4% in Hobart).  Higher volumes of interstate and overseas migration are fuelling the increased population growth in Hobart.

Launceston's population in 2017 was 86,400, with slower growth recorded over the period 2007-17 (0.4% per annum on average).  The rate of population growth varied markedly over the ten years, with negative growth recorded between 2011-12 to 2013-14.  This was primarily due to economic restructuring in the manufacturing sector, which affected the employment market and resulted in increased levels of interstate migration loss to other parts of Australia.

However the population growth rate increased in 2016-17 to 0.8%, the highest since 2009-10.  The implementation of the Launceston City Deal, which aims to position the city as a liveable and innovative regional city, should also influence population growth in the coming years. 

The graph below shows the annual growth rate over the period 2007-17 in both Hobart and Launceston.  In each year population growth in Hobart outpaced that of Launceston.

What is their age structure?

The age structures of Hobart and Launceston are largely similar, but with one significant difference.  There is a higher proportion of young adults (15-24 years) in Launceston.  This age group comprises 14.3% of the population in Launceston, compared to 12.8% in Hobart.  In both cities, young adults are concentrated around university and TAFE campuses, as well as central Hobart.  

What's interesting about this is that the proportion of young adults in both cities is similar to Sydney and Melbourne, yet overall Tasmania loses young adults to other parts of Australia through interstate migration.  The likely explanation is intrastate migration ie migration to these cities from other parts of Tasmania. 

The age structure of both cities is shown in the graph below.

How are they growing?

Unfortunately components of population change data are not available for SUAs.  However SA3 level data for Hobart and Launceston provides some indication of how these cities are growing.  In 2016-17, all components of population change were positive, meaning that natural increase, interstate migration and overseas migration all contributed to population growth.  

There were differences in the contribution of each component of change to population growth.  Overseas migration contributed more than 75% of the growth in Launceston SA3, and interstate migration just 2%.  Launceston SA3 gained just 13 people through interstate migration in 2016-17, but this was a change from the out-migration recorded each year between 2006-07 to 2015-16.  In Hobart, the balance between the contribution of interstate and overseas migration was more even (36% and 41% respectively).  

That Hobart and Launceston are gaining population through migration is a major turnaround from just a few years ago.  Interstate migration to Tasmania is volatile, but has been positive since 2014-15 and has increased each year since.  

What does the Census tell us?

Data from the 2016 Census for Hobart and Launceston SUAs rounds out the population story and also reveals some interesting socio-economic differences.

Hobart had a higher median weekly income ($1,244 vs $1,086) and a much higher proportion of persons with a university qualification (22.1% vs 16.2%).  Reflecting its role as the State capital, the main industry of employment was State government administration (4.1%), with Central government administration also among the top five industries (2.7%).  Government employment was less important in Launceston, where service-related industries were important employers eg Hospitals (5.0%), Supermarket and grocery stores (3.4%) and Aged care residential services (3.1%).

In both cities around 80% of the population were born in Australia, and England was the most common overseas born country.  In Hobart, China was the most common non-English speaking overseas born country (1.2% of the population).  In Launceston, persons born in Malaysia, Bhutan and China were the most common non-English speaking countries of birth, each comprising around 0.5% of the population.

Summary

In 2017, the populations of Hobart and Launceston were 210,340 and 86,700 respectively.  Both cities have recorded increased rates of population growth since 2011, particularly Launceston which actually recorded negative growth for several years.  In 2016-17, Hobart's population growth was driven by interstate and overseas migration, but overseas migration was more important in Launceston.  The age structures of both cities are similar, with a slightly higher proportion of young adults in Launceston.  Census data reveals that the main difference in socio-economic characteristics relates to the industry of employment.  Hobart's role as the state capital means that employment in the government sector (particularly state government) is more important than other industry sectors.