Population trends in Darwin

With all the attention on issues of population growth and immigration in our largest cities, population trends in our smaller cities has tended to slip under the radar.  Recent population data from the ABS confirms that the Northern Territory (NT) recorded a decline in population in 2017-18.  This is primarily due to increasing levels of net interstate migration loss.  However, there are spatial differences across the NT, and this blog looks at population change in the Greater Darwin region in 2017-18.

Northern Territory population trends

Population growth in the NT has always been volatile due to a combination of economic conditions, economic opportunities and remoteness.  Like Western Australia, population growth and change are linked to the fortunes of the mining sector and job opportunities.  At June 2018 the population of the NT was 247,330, a decline of 0.1% on the June 2017 figure of 247,520.

The graph below shows the population of the NT over the period 1970-2017.  This clearly shows the volatility of change, with periods of growth, stabilisation, and decline.  The stand out example of population decline followed the large-scale evacuation of Darwin after Cyclone Tracy in 1974.  However the NT regained its pre-Tracy population by 1976, and the population grew by almost 5% per annum on average over the subsequent decade.




The main reason for the more recent decline in population is an increasing level of interstate migration loss.  This has been a feature of demographic change in the NT since 2009.  In 2017, a total of 3,263 more people left the NT than arrived, and more recent quarterly data released by the ABS suggest this trend is continuing.  This is not a good start for the NT government's plan to boost population growth through the implementation of the Northern Territory Population Growth Strategy.

What is Darwin's population?

Greater Darwin includes the urban area as well as the outlying settlements of Humpty Doo and Howard Springs.  At June 2018, the population of Greater Darwin was 148,564,  a slight decline of 0.2% over the previous twelve months.  It's the first time since 2002-03 that Greater Darwin has recorded a loss of population over a twelve month period.  In addition, Greater Darwin was the only state capital in Australia to record population decline in 2017-18.

How is Darwin's population changing?

The component method employed by the ABS to calculate the ERP is now in its second year.  The data is invaluable in that it shows how populations are changing, rather just by how much.  Data for 2017-18 shows that Greater Darwin gained population through natural increase (1,810 persons) and net overseas migration (639 persons).  However, interstate migration loss is quite significant (-2,804 persons).  This compares with a figure of -1,424 persons recorded in 2016-17.  Therefore, the magnitude of interstate migration loss has increased, in line with trends for the NT overall. 

Are any areas of Darwin growing?

The map below shows population change in Greater Darwin over the period 2017-18.  Despite the overall decline, some areas still grew strongly.  These included Lyons, in the outer north (6.9%) and Palmerston - South, which grew by a massive 21.9%.  These are greenfield areas that tend to attract first home buyers and young families.  

The parts of Darwin that are losing population are the established suburbs north of the airport, as well as older parts of Palmerston.  These are more mature areas in terms of their age and household structure, but overall, the higher level of net interstate migration loss was the main driver of population decline.  Several SA2s declined in population by more than 3%, including Moil, Wagaman, Anula, Woolner-Bayview-Winnellie and Brinkin-Nakara.  

In contrast to other Australian capital cities, inner Darwin lost population in 2017-18.  The SA2 of Darwin City recorded a population decline of -2.7%.  Despite gaining population through natural increase and net overseas migration, this SA2 recorded the highest volume of net interstate migration loss in Greater Darwin.  

Summary

Increasing levels of net interstate migration loss over the last few years have been the main driver behind the population decline recorded not just in Darwin, but the NT as a whole.  Greater Darwin was the only state capital to record a decline in population in 2017-18.  There were pockets of growth, notably in the SA2s of Lyons and Palmerston - South.  However, several SA2s recorded a decline in population of more than 3%.  Interstate migration loss was the driver of population decline in all these SA2s.