35 Melbourne suburbs are growing by 5% per annum

If you follow this blog you will have noticed that I favour population analysis from a spatial perspective.  In this day and age headline numbers get clicks, but it's not until you look at the differences across metropolitan areas that you gain a better perspective of how our cities are changing.  In 2017-18, Greater Melbourne grew by 2.5%, or 119,420 people.  But how was this growth spread across Melbourne?  SA2 data released by the ABS provides a fine-grained perspective on population change - read on to find out more.


Population of Melbourne 

At June 2018, the population of Greater Melbourne was 4.96 million, up from 4.84 million at June 2017.  For the last decade or so, Melbourne has often recorded the highest growth rate of all state capitals, resulting in speculation that it will become Australia's largest city by the end of the 2020s.  It was estimated that Greater Melbourne reached a population of 5 million in the second half of 2018.

Local Government Areas

In 2017-18, all LGAs within Greater Melbourne recorded population growth.  The highest growth rate was recorded in the City of Melbourne (6.8%) followed by Wyndham (5.9%) and Melton (5.4%).  However Wyndham recorded the highest volume of growth (14,250 persons).  For many years these LGAs have consistently been amongst the fastest growing ones not only in Melbourne, but across the country.  However they have different drivers of change.  Housing construction in the City of Melbourne is dominated by large apartment blocks which attract small (typically younger) households, whereas Wyndham and Melton attract young families seeking relatively affordable housing in new suburbs.

At the other end of the scale, Nillumbik recorded growth of 0.5% in 2017-18, or around 323 persons.  Again, this is consistent with long term trends and reflects environmental constraints, a relatively mature age profile, and a lack of major development opportunities within the Shire.  

SA2s (or suburbs)

SA2s are an ABS geographic construct, and in metropolitan areas they generally equate to suburbs (or combinations thereof).  At this level of geography, there is greater detail as to the level of population change.  The map below shows the population growth rate of SA2s within Greater Melbourne in 2017-18.  

What is remarkable about the current era of rapid population growth in Melbourne is just how few areas are losing population.  Just about everywhere is growing!  However the very rapid rates of growth are spatially concentrated, and many parts of Melbourne are growing modestly.

Rapidly growing suburbs

The map shows that there is a band of SA2s stretching across Melbourne's west through to the north that grew by more than 5% in 2017-18.  There is another concentration in the outer south-east, as well as parts of the inner city.  In total, there were 35 SA2s that recorded a growth rate of 5% or more in 2017-18.

The highest population growth rate was recorded in the Port Melbourne Industrial Area, which grew tenfold from 25 persons to 259.  Although the Fishermen's Bend precinct is located here and slated for significant growth in the future, it's unclear where exactly this growth has occurred in the SA2 but it is highly likely to be an apartment complex.  

Other rapidly growing suburbs were located on the urban fringe, particularly in areas where there are numerous housing estates under development.  These include Rockbank - Mount Cottrell (59.4% growth) in the outer west, Mickleham - Yuroke (52.2%) in the outer north, and Cranbourne East (21.2%) in the outer south-east.  These areas are facing significant planning challenges in order to meet the demands of their rapidly growing populations.

Suburbs with declining populations

There were only eight SA2s in 2017-18 that recorded population loss, and even these were minor.  They were scattered across the metropolitan area but generally tended to be in areas that were developed in the 1990s and now have a mature age structure.  The young families that moved to these suburbs at the time now have children moving out of home and thus household types are changing and getting smaller.  The largest population decline was recorded in Endeavour Hills - South (-0.5%, or 50 people), followed by Mill Park - South (-0.4% or 47 people).  Although the populations are declining, the changing age structures will necessitate a review of service planning, as different services will be demanded by a more mature population.

Summary

Greater Melbourne reached a population of 4.96 million in June 2018, recording a growth rate of 2.5% over the previous twelve months.  Population growth varies widely across the city and the patterns and the differences in the growth rate are apparent when smaller geographies are considered.  In terms of LGAs, the City of Melbourne recorded the highest growth rate (6.8%), and Nillumbik the lowest (0.5%).  At the SA2 (or suburb) level, the highest growth rate was recorded in the Port Melbourne Industrial Area (a crazy 936%), but overall the rapidly growing areas were concentrated across the outer west, north, south-east, and the inner city.  Very few SA2s recorded population decline in 2017-18, emphasising the rapidity at which Melbourne grew during 2017-18.