Where is the Batavia Coast?

It goes without saying that Australia's coastline is long and diverse.  Some parts have large cities, others are remote and wild.  Many parts of the coast have been given names that are designed to attract visitors to the various regions, generally based around colour, geological features and even animals.  Examples include the Sapphire Coast in southern NSW and the Limestone Coast in South Australia.  They generally don't have any formal status, rather they exist merely for tourism purposes.  This blog looks at the demographic characteristics of the Batavia Coast in Western Australia - named after a shipwreck.

Where is the Batavia Coast?

The Batavia Coast is located north of Perth and refers to the section of coastline between Cervantes (about 200km from Perth) and Kalbarri (close to 600km from Perth).  The Batavia was a Dutch ship that was wrecked in 1629 while en route to what is now known as Indonesia.  The wreck lies in waters near the Abrolhos Islands, which are in the Indian Ocean 80km west of Geraldton.

The map below shows the location of the Batavia Coast and the SA2s within this region. 

What is the population?

For the purposes of this blog, the Batavia Coast region encompasses the SA2s along the coast between the northern outskirts of Perth (north of Two Rocks) and Kalbarri.  It's a larger region than that defined for tourism purposes, due to the size of the SA2s in this part of Australia.

The population of the Batavia Coast in 2018 was 59,250, a 1.2% decline on the 2017 figure of 59,970.  Population decline has been characteristic of the Batavia Coast since 2014, when the population peaked at 61,630.  Before then the population had increased steadily over the years - from 53,680 in 2001.  This is in line with general population trends in Western Australia, which shows that growth has slowed markedly since 2014, mainly as a result of the end of the mining boom.

Population trends - Geraldton

The largest town on the Batavia Coast is Geraldton, which had a population of 37,650 in 2018.  This makes it the third largest regional city in Western Australia.  The graph below shows population change in the Geraldton SA2s since 2001.

Geraldton has variable growth patterns, with the established core declining in population (particularly this decade), but continued growth in the north and south.  Geraldton SA2, which encompasses the central area and the coastal strip from Bluff Point to Beachlands, had a relatively steady population between 2001 and 2014 - the year that Geraldton recorded its peak population.  However since then there has been a rapid decline in population, recording -4.1% in 2017-18.  Since 2014, the population has declined by more than 11%.

In contrast, growth has continued in Geraldton - North and Geraldton - South, albeit at a much slower pace since 2014.  These SA2s contain the current development fronts in the wider Geraldton region, with new houses taking advantage of the coastal location.  An example is the Drummond Cove development in the north.  Geraldton - North and Geraldton - South recorded growth of 2.2% and 0.3% respectively in 2017-18.  Combined with relatively modest population change in Geraldton - East, the total growth in these SA2s (177 persons) did not make up the loss recorded in Geraldton (-484 persons). 

ABS regional internal migration estimates for 2016-17 indicate that net migration losses from Geraldton are primarily people of working age (25-44 years).  This suggests that local economic conditions such as poor employment prospects are influencing out-migration trends in this part of Australia.

Population trends - rest of Batavia Coast

Population change in the rest of the Batavia Coast region is shown in the graph below.  This is a more sparsely populated region and since 2014, much of it has recorded population decline.

Morawa is the most rural of these SA2s.  Most of the towns have populations of less than 500 people.  It has an economy based on agriculture and population decline has been part of the demographic story for some time.  In 2001, the population of Morawa was 5,132, but in 2018 it was 3,862.  This means that the population has been declining by around 1.7% each year over that time period.

Gingin - Dandaragan recorded steady population growth up to 2014, but the population has declined slightly since that time.  This area is closest to Perth, being a peri-urban area beyond the metropolitan fringe.  Out-migration is the driver of population change in this SA2.  The coastal strip has traditionally been a holiday and day-tripping destination for Perth residents.  There is a high proportion of vacant dwellings in the coastal towns - 83% in Guilderton, 68% in Lancelin and 59% in Cervantes.  So while there might be a lot of dwellings, many of them are likely to be used as holiday homes and/or rentals, which does not contribute to the growth of the permanent population or the local economy.  Growth of these towns, and others further north, may also be influenced in the future by the threat of coastal erosion.

The Batavia Coast has an older age profile than that of Western Australia and this has implications for future growth.  For instance, the proportion of people aged 20-39 years is 22.4% on the Batavia Coast, compared to 29.2% in Western Australia (ABS, 2017).  In contrast, there is a higher proportion of older people on the Batavia Coast.  6.7% of the population is aged 75 years and over, compared to 5.9% in Western Australia.  A smaller proportion of people in the family forming age groups tends to result in a lower number of births.  When combined with a higher proportion of older people this may lead to a low level of natural increase - or even natural decrease.  In this situation, the only way the population can grow is through net migration gain, which is not occurring at present.

Summary

In 2018, the population of the Batavia Coast was 59,250.  The population has been declining since 2014, roughly corresponding with the end of the mining boom and a more modest phase of growth in Western Australia.  The population of the Batavia Coast peaked in 2014 (61,630) after years of steady growth.  Geraldton is the largest city on the Batavia Coast, with a 2018 population of 37,650 in 2018.  Overall, most of the Batavia Coast is declining in population as a result of out-migration.  The age structure shows an older population compared to Western Australia, and a lower proportion of people in family forming age groups (20-39 years).  In addition, coastal townships tend to have high dwelling vacancy rates due to their role as holiday destinations, which dampens growth of the permanent population.