Population distribution in Australia

One of the more interesting demographic trends in the last two years has been the increased movement of people out of large cities into regional and rural areas. These so-called "flee changers" have local impacts with regard the demand for services and infrastructure, there is still some question as to whether this represents a long term shift in the distribution of the Australian population. This blog looks at the distribution of the Australian population over the last 100 years, concentrating on the state capital/rest of state split.

Population change in South East Queensland

Queensland is currently the fastest growing state in Australia. In 2020-21, the population increased by 0.9%, well above the national average of 0.2%. The volume of growth was just shy of 46,000 people. Queensland's population growth is driven by interstate migration. In recent years, the volume has increased, and has accelerated since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it's not all sunshine and roses. This blog looks at population change by SA2 in South East Queensland (SEQ). It shows that while there are pockets of strong growth, at the same time, some areas recorded a decline in population.

Population trends for local areas

The release of the 2021 regional population estimates has been highly anticipated. This is because it shows a full twelve months of COVID-19 influenced population trends, particularly the closure of the international border, at a local level. Previous data released by the ABS, such as changes in internal migration patterns have provided some clues as to what the data will show. Read on to find out more.

Would Australia's population grow without overseas migration?

I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.

Queensland's shifting population

This is a follow up to last week's blog, which looked at population growth trends in Greater Brisbane.  When I was conducting my analysis, it struck me that Greater Brisbane had a slightly smaller population than the rest of Queensland.  A quick look at the numbers showed that the populations were converging.  In 2019, the population of Greater Brisbane was 2.51m, compared to 2.58m in rest of Queensland.  However, if current trends continue, Greater Brisbane will have a larger population than the rest of the state by the mid-2020s.

Brisbane is one of the fastest growing cities in Australia

Every year around this time the ABS releases population estimates (ERP) for small areas.  This year the data has been somewhat lost in the coronavirus madness.  Despite the seriousness of that situation, there is still a wealth of interesting population data.  This blog will look at spatial patterns of population change in Brisbane, which recorded a growth rate of 2.1% in 2018-19.  This makes Brisbane the second fastest growing state capital city behind Melbourne (2.5% growth rate).