Regional population trends in Victoria

The release of regional population estimates for 2022 has been highly anticipated. This is because it's the first post-2021 Census release of population data. It covers a 12 month period when the Australian border was reopened to overseas migration after COVID related lockdowns. The state of Victoria was hit hard by COVID, with significant shifts in migration patterns marking an end to a decade or more of strong growth. What are the key demographic trends in 2021-22? Read on to find out.

Birth numbers rebound in 2021 - but is it the whole story?

Towards the end of each year, the ABS releases data on the number of births and deaths across the country. The births data generates significant interest, and more so this year as the fertility rate increased for the first time in many years. While the number of births, and the fertility rate, are important social indicators, they don't tell the full story in terms of population change. This blog looks at natural increase (births minus deaths) in Victoria.

How many babies? Australian fertility trends in 2020

Each year the ABS releases data on the number of birth and death registrations across Australia. The data is important as it provides indicators of population change at the local level. Fertility trends differ widely across metropolitan and rural areas. What were the key trends in 2020?

Current population trends in Victoria

In late March the ABS released the 2020 regional population estimates (ERP). This data shows some signs of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population trends at a more local level. In this blog I look at Victoria, a state that has recorded substantial growth in recent years. Was this trend sustained in 2019-2020? And what has happened at a more local level? Read on to find out.

Would Australia's population grow without overseas migration?

I've written a few blogs previously that describe the impacts of COVID-19 and border closures on population growth and change. The situation continues to evolve and the impacts differ by location. By far the most impactful measure implemented is the closure of the international border. This has effectively cut off the major source of population growth - net overseas migration (NOM). In 2018-19, NOM accounted for 62% of population growth in Australia. So yes - Australia's population will grow without overseas migration, but there are significant differences between the state capitals and regional areas. This blog takes a scenario approach and looks at the impact on population change that occurred in 2018-19 had there been no overseas migration.

Melbourne housing trends - when a three bedroom house is no longer enough

Last week I looked at dwelling diversity in Melbourne from the perspective of dwelling type.  This week's focus is the number of bedrooms, and how this differs by dwelling type across Melbourne.  Separate dwellings comprise 66.1% of the stock in Greater Melbourne, but they come in all shapes and sizes, adding to the diversity mix.  A major trend in recent years has been the increasing size of separate houses - as measured by the number of bedrooms.  For many years the humble three bedroom family home was a quintessential part of suburbia, but their numbers are declining for a variety of reasons.  Read on to find out more.

35 Melbourne suburbs are growing by 5% per annum

If you follow this blog you will have noticed that I favour population analysis from a spatial perspective.  In this day and age headline numbers get clicks, but it's not until you look at the differences across metropolitan areas that you gain a better perspective of how our cities are changing.  In 2017-18, Greater Melbourne grew by 2.5%, or 119,420 people.  But how was this growth spread across Melbourne?  SA2 data released by the ABS provides a fine-grained perspective on population change - read on to find out more.

Australia's African population - who are they?

It seems you can barely turn on the TV or read a newspaper these days without some mention of the African crime wave, particularly in Melbourne.  For such a small population, they certainly seem to grab their fair share of headlines.  But describing people as "African" is not helpful.  The diversity of the continent means that "African" can describe a multitude of different people.  Furthermore, an ethnic community can be measured in different ways.  So who are the Africans in Australia?  What are their characteristics?  Read on to find out more.

Australia has some of the biggest houses in the world

It's often said that Australia builds some of the largest houses in the world.  In the second half of the twentieth century the growth of suburbs dominated by separate houses on large blocks has contributed to urban sprawl.  In many ways it's ironic that although contemporary planning policies seek to address these issues eg through smaller block sizes on the urban fringe and increased densities in established areas, house sizes remain large.  What data illustrates these trends?

Are migrants to blame for rapid population growth ?

Barely a day goes by without some comment in the media about the problems associated with high levels of immigration.  Overseas migrants are blamed for a range of problems, from traffic congestion to housing affordability and beyond.  There's no doubting that Australia's population is growing rapidly, but less attention is paid to how it is growing.  The ABS has recently changed the way they calculate population growth for sub-state geographies to a component based model.  This provides the opportunity to have a closer look at how the population is growing and changing at smaller areas of geography.

What are the components of population change?

People are born, they die, and they move around - this is how populations grow and decline, and are known as the components of population change.  The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is called natural increase.  In Australia there are more births than deaths so the population will increase in the absence of any migration.  The reverse can also be true ie more deaths than births, and this is termed natural decrease.  In some parts of Australia this plays a significant role in population change.

Migration is the other component of population change, and can be considered in terms of interstate migration and overseas migration.  Interstate migration is between the states and territories and for Australia sums up to zero.  Overseas migration is between Australia and other countries - curiously in the debate over the level of overseas migration it's often forgotten that people do move out of Australia, so effectively media comments are about net overseas migration.

How is Australia's population growing?

In 2016-17 Australia's population grew by 388,120 persons - 124,710 through natural increase (37%) and 245,410 through net overseas migration (63%).  Overseas migrants overwhelmingly settle in NSW and Victoria (76%).  So yes it's true to say that net overseas migration is playing a major role in the rapidity of population growth, but clearly it isn't the only factor.

It is important to consider that migration is an extremely volatile component of population change.  Overseas migration in particular is subject to changes in government policy, and it's also reliant on economic conditions.  When jobs are plentiful levels of overseas migration increase simply because there are jobs available - you only have to consider the impact of the mining boom in Western Australia to see how this plays out demographically.  

On the other hand, natural increase is far more stable over time as changes in birth and death rates are influenced by societal change and health, which do not exhibit the same volatility over time.  Therefore, the contribution that each component makes to total population change is strongly influenced by the level of overseas migration.

How is Melbourne's population growing?

The new methodology employed by the ABS to calculate sub-state population growth provides an opportunity to see how the different components of change play out spatially.  Recently I looked at population growth in Victoria, observing that most growth was occurring in Melbourne.  Let's take that analysis a little further to look at the components of population change in Melbourne's LGAs.

Metropolitan Melbourne (defined by the 31 LGAs in the metropolitan area) grew by 123,360 persons in 2016-17.  Overseas migration comprised almost 65% of this total, natural increase 29% and interstate migration 7%.  Of all the growth attributable to overseas migration in Victoria in 2016-17, around 92% settled in Greater Melbourne.  

The map below shows the rate of population change through overseas migration for each LGA in metropolitan Melbourne.  Effectively this is what the growth rate would be if the only component of change was overseas migration.  All LGAs recorded population growth through overseas migration, but the spatial pattern was different to that of total population growth.

The City of Melbourne clearly stands out, with an overseas migration growth rate of 6.3% - by far the strongest in metropolitan Melbourne.  In numerical terms, this equated to 9,310 persons - around three-quarters of total population growth.  It is likely that this is related to the high number of international students residing in and around the city.  This is also likely to explain the higher overseas migration growth rate in Monash (3.5%).  2016 data from the Department of Education and Training indicates that over 33,000 international students were enrolled at the University of Melbourne and RMIT, both of whom have their main campus in the city.  A further 18,500 were enrolled at Monash University.  Of course international students are not the only overseas migrants but these enrolment statistics shed light on the scale of the contribution they make to population growth in our cities.

Interestingly, there was not a strong spatial relationship between the overseas migration rate and the rapidly growing LGAs on the urban fringe.  While overseas migration does play a role in population growth in these areas, they are more likely to grow through natural increase and interstate migration.  For instance, the City of Wyndham grew by 6.1% in 2016-17, but the overseas migration growth rate was 2.1%, the highest of the urban fringe LGAs.  This compares with 2.3% for interstate migration and 1.7% for natural increase.  

The lowest overseas migration rate (0.4%) was recorded in the outer urban LGAs of Mornington Peninsula and Yarra Ranges.  Both LGAs recorded modest growth overall, but natural increase (0.6%) was the more important in Yarra Ranges.  On the other hand, Mornington Peninsula recorded the lowest natural increase growth rate (0.05%) in metropolitan Melbourne, influenced no doubt by the older age profile in this LGA ie more deaths.

Summary

Overseas migration is the most volatile of the components of population change, responding to government policy and economic conditions.  The current high levels of population growth show some relationship with higher levels of overseas migration at the macro geographic level, but this doesn't translate well at the small scale.  Currently 65% of population growth in metropolitan Melbourne is attributable to overseas migration, but this varies widely by LGA.  The strongest overseas migration growth rate was recorded in the City of Melbourne, and the lowest in Yarra Ranges and Mornington Peninsula.  

Population growth in Victoria - from slow growth to woah growth

Cast your mind back to the early 1990s - Australia was in the midst of the recession that we had to have, Paul Keating (who coined the phrase) was the Prime Minister, grunge ruled the music industry and there was no Internet.  Australia's population was 18.2 million, growing by around 1.1% on average in the first half of the 1990s.  Compare this with the 1.6% recorded in 2016-17, and though it may not seem like a huge difference, there's little doubt that the population discourse is now centred around the rapid growth in Australia's largest cities and the challenges this creates.  However, population growth is not spread evenly, and the state of Victoria illustrates this well.  It's a great example of a place where the population dynamics have completely turned around in the course of little more than two decades - from slow growth to woah growth. 

Population growth in Victoria during the 1990s.

The early 1990s recession hit Victoria hard both economically and socially.  Job losses in the manufacturing sector and crises in the banking sector had ramifications through the economy.  The unemployment rate was above 10% from June 1991 to October 1994.  Between 1991-96, the population growth rate averaged 0.5%.  In the 12 months ended June 1994, just 10,200 people were added to the population.  This was driven by a high level of migration out of the State, reaching almost 30,000.  To put this in perspective, that is the equivalent of losing a town around the size of Warrnambool.  The economy slowly recovered in the second half of the decade and population growth increased, averaging 1.0% over the period 1996-2001.

Population growth in Victoria, 2016-17

Twenty or so years later it's a completely different picture.  In 2016-17, Victoria was by far and away the fastest growing State in Australia, recording growth of 2.3% in 2016-17, or more than 144,300 people.  Growth was driven by both migration from overseas and interstate, as well as natural increase (births minus deaths).  About 60% of growth was attributable to net overseas migration.  That Victoria gained more than 17,000 people from other parts of Australia is a huge turnaround for a state that has traditionally lost population through interstate migration.  In fact, the gain of 17,100 was only just surpassed by Queensland's gain of 17,430 - Queensland of course a state that has a long tradition of gaining population through interstate migration.

Where is population growth occurring in Victoria?

Population growth in Victoria is spatially concentrated and generally reflects long standing trends.  Greater Melbourne grew by 2.7% during 2016-17, representing more than 125,000 people or 86% of Victoria's total population growth.  At June 2017 Melbourne's population was 4,850,740 and at the current rate of growth the 5 million milestone will likely be hit before the decade is over.

The map below shows the population growth rate by LGA in Victoria during 2016-17.  Areas with darker blue shading grew strongly, whereas those shaded red lost population over that time.

The LGA that recorded the highest growth rate in Victoria was the City of Melbourne (8.1%), or almost 12,000 people.  This reflects the construction of a large number of apartment buildings in and around the city, and also the high level of overseas migration.  Many overseas migrants are students and other young people who move to the city and surrounds to access education, employment and lifestyle opportunities.  

Other strong growing LGAs (more than 4%) were located on the Melbourne metropolitan fringe and this reflects trends that have been occurring for a number of years.  Wyndham continues its rapid growth, recording a growth rate of 6.1%, or 13,810 persons to reach a population of 241,900.  The urban footprint of Wyndham continues to expand north and west, with several new housing estates under construction in Tarneit and Truganina.  Cardinia and Melton also grew strongly (both 5.0%), followed by Casey (4.4%) and Hume (4.1%).  Casey is Victoria's largest LGA in terms of population size, and its growth rate of 4.4% represents an increase of 13,860 persons - slightly more than faster growing Wyndham.

The fastest growing LGAs in regional Victoria were generally located around the Melbourne metropolitan perimeter or along the coast.  Surf Coast, located south west of Geelong and incorporating rapidly growing towns such as Torquay, grew by 2.9%.  Much of this growth is located in the northern part of the Shire, adjacent to the Geelong metropolitan area and with good access to that job market.  Baw Baw and Mitchell both grew by 2.8%, both areas containing greenfield development opportunities that attract families seeking relatively affordable housing in a semi-rural environment but with access to the Melbourne employment market.

What areas are losing population?

There were no LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne that lost population in 2016-17.  Frankston, Knox and Nillumbik all grew by less than 1%.  All are established suburban areas with few opportunities for larger greenfield developments, and Nillumbik's development is also constrained by topographical and environmental issues.  

It's a different story in regional Victoria but the patterns of population change reflect long standing trends across rural areas of Australia.  Most LGAs in western and north western Victoria lost population in 2016-17, particularly those in dryland agricultural areas.  Of the 13 LGAs that recorded population loss, just two were located elsewhere in Victoria (Towong and Benalla).  Some of these LGAs have very small populations and so small shifts in population trends can have a disproportionate impact when expressed as a percentage.  For instance, the -1.3% decline in Buloke Shire represents 79 people.  The main driver of population loss in these areas is internal migration (more people moving out than in) and natural decrease (more deaths than births).

Summary

Victoria's population is growing strongly, but it is not spread equally across the State.  Growth is concentrated in metropolitan Melbourne, particularly in the CBD and surrounds, and on the urban fringe.  It is driven by migration from interstate and overseas, as well as natural increase.  In regional Victoria, LGAs in close proximity to Melbourne are also growing strongly, but those in dryland farming areas continue to lose population, primarily through out migration and natural decrease.