Population change in South East Queensland

Queensland is currently the fastest growing state in Australia. In 2020-21, the population increased by 0.9%, well above the national average of 0.2%. The volume of growth was just shy of 46,000 people. Queensland's population growth is driven by interstate migration. In recent years, the volume has increased, and has accelerated since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it's not all sunshine and roses. This blog looks at population change by SA2 in South East Queensland (SEQ). It shows that while there are pockets of strong growth, at the same time, some areas recorded a decline in population.

South East Queensland (SEQ)

There are many definitions of SEQ, and this blog uses the one determined by the Queensland Dept of State Development. This consists of 11 LGAs covering Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and inland to the Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim region. The analysis presented here however is at the SA2 level. This is an appropriate scale for spatial analysis due to the population size of some LGAs. For example, the City of Brisbane's population exceeds 1.2 million people, and that of the Gold Coast a further 643,460.

In 2020-21, the population of SEQ increased by 1.0%, or 37,830 people, to reach a population of 3.77 million. Almost three-quarters of Queensland's population live in the region. There is a 200km stretch of coastline with almost continuous urban development.

Spatial patterns of population change

The map below shows the percentage change in population by SA2. Areas shaded purple increased in population, while those shaded green declined in population during 2020-21.

In general, the fastest growing SA2s were located in new residential areas on the outskirts of Brisbane metropolitan area, the northern part of the Gold Coast, and parts of the Sunshine Coast west of Caloundra. These SA2s are located in areas with new housing estates that attract young couples and families, internal migration was the primary driver of population growth. In other words, the growth patterns exhibited in SEQ during 2020-21 are typical of growth patterns in other Australian cities. Interstate migration may have contributed to some of this growth, but it's not the whole story as depicted in some media commentary.

Ripley, a new suburb in Ipswich, recorded the strongest growth rate in 2020-21 (19.4%), to reach a population of 11,645. Since 2013, Ripley has increased in population by more than 10% per annum. There were another six SA2s in SEQ that recorded a growth rate exceeding 10%, including Pallara-Willawong, Pimpama and Chambers Flat - Logan Reserve. 

Despite these pockets of growth, there were parts of SEQ where the population declined. This was more evident in the established suburbs of Brisbane, Logan, as well as the Gold Coast and much of Noosa.

SA2s that recorded the strongest decline were located in inner Brisbane, notably St Lucia (-5.3%), Brisbane City (-4.2%), Kelvin Grove - Herston (-3.5%) and Woodridge (-3.3%). St Lucia is notable as the location of the University of Queensland. It's been documented that the university sector has been particularly hard hit during the pandemic, with many international students unable to enter the country, while others have left. This has also been a key feature of population decline in the inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne.

On the Gold Coast, the SA2s that declined in population were more established suburbs, such as Blundall (-2.1%), but in numeric terms the losses were generally small. Any population losses on the Gold Coast were more than offset by strong growth in the north, continuing the slow process of closing the gap with the southern outskirts of Brisbane. Population decline in parts of the Gold Coast seems contrary to reports of a tight housing market. However there are several influences, including supply and the influence of the short stay rental accommodation sector.

Population decline was also a feature of Noosa, contrasting with the stronger growth across most of the Sunshine Coast. However the declines were small. For example, Tewantin declined by 1.1%, or 112 people. Population decline in these SA2s was the result of natural decrease ie more deaths than births. This reflects an older population, small households, and limited opportunities for residential development. 

In contrast, Noosa Hinterland grew by 1.7%. The SA2s in Somerset, Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim all grew modestly, generally through a mix of internal migration and natural increase. These areas are peri-urban in nature, providing opportunities for semi-rural living within commuting distance of Brisbane and the Gold Coast, particularly in their small towns and villages.

Strong growth without overseas migration

Like other states and territories, Queensland's population growth was impacted by the closure of the international border. In 2020-21, net overseas migration was -14,540 ie more departures than arrivals. But net interstate migration increased by almost one-quarter, reaching 31,180. This was the highest level since the mid 2000s and is a continuation of an upward trend over the course of the last decade or so.

How rapidly would the population have grown without the border closure? It's hard to say precisely, but we can consider past levels of NOM. In 2018-19 it was 31,750. If this level was maintained in 2020-21, total growth in Queensland would have been more than 90,000 - or the highest volume in ten years. 

Summary

Queensland is currently the fastest growing state in Australia, largely driven by an increasing level of net interstate migration. SEQ is one the largest urban areas in Australia, with a population of 3.77 million. The region grew by 1.0% in 2020-21, slightly higher than the Queensland figure of 0.9%, and well above the national figure of 0.2%. The fastest growing SA2s in SEQ are in greenfield areas on the urban fringe, the northern part of the Gold Coast, and parts of the Sunshine Coast. Despite the relatively strong growth, there were several SA2s that declined in population, but overall the losses were small in number. Areas of population decline were typically located in established parts of the Brisbane metropolitan area and the Gold Coast.